One of the best ways to enjoy a standalone game like Thursday Night Football is to play player props.
When it comes to NFL prop projections, there is simply no one better than our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner. Using his projections in our Player Props Tool, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll.
Each Thursday, I’ll identify which props on PrizePicks have the most attractive value when compared with Sean’s projections. Let’s take a closer look at the Week 9 matchup between the New York Jets and the Indianapolis Colts.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for TNF
Jack Doyle Over 8.5 Receiving Yards
Jack Doyle has been lurking in the shadows of fellow tight end Mo Alie-Cox and his three touchdowns. However, Doyle seen spiked usage over the past four weeks, averaging a 67.6% snap share.
Doyle ran 25 routes last week against the Titans, his highest total since Week 2. The Jets have allowed 41 receptions, 462 yards and three touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.
This is a historic play as well, with Doyle averaging 25.8 receiving yards over his 49 career home games for the Colts. We project him for 16.8 receiving yards, almost double this total.
This line is 9.5 receiving yards across the rest of the market, providing an extra yard of value at PrizePicks. This is an 8-rated prop in our tool.
Michael Carter Under 35.5 Receiving Yards
Fade the big performance.
Michael Carter turned 14 targets into nine receptions and 95 receiving yards in last week’s upset win over Cincinnati. Most will grab this number, assuming it is too low after that big Week 8 performance.
Indianapolis has been among the league’s best at limiting opposing running backs. The Colts rank first in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and have allowed the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Head coach Frank Reich will certainly prioritize limiting Carter, especially with Jets quarterback Mike White making only his second career start.
We project Carter for only 30.5 receiving yards, making this an 8-rated prop play for Thursday Night Football.
Nyheim Hines Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
On Thursday night, backup running backs tend to see increased usage. We like Nyheim Hines to again become involved in the offense, especially against a Jets defense that’s allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs.
Hines was used earlier in the year, and produced two top-20 PPR running back stat lines. He was limited in the middle four weeks, with only four total receptions between Weeks 4-7.
Hines ran 16 routes last week, the most since Week 3.
Veteran wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has been ruled out with a concussion, opening up the need for Hines’ receiving ability. This line is 11.5 yards across the market, again creating additional value.
We project the shifty RB for 15.4 receiving yards, more than 46% above this prop total. This is a 7-rated prop in our tool.
