The AFC East battle we have waited for is here: the New England Patriots at the Buffalo Bills.
The Patriots (8-4) enter this game as the hottest team in NFL, winners of six straight. Buffalo (7-4) is hoping to break a six game trend of alternating wins and losses and take back its divisional lead.
Here are my three PrizePicks prop plays for this huge Monday Night Football clash.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for MNF
Kendrick Bourne Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
I’ve seen enough of Kendrick Bourne’s production to feel confident about hitting the over on this 28.5 receiving yardage prop.
Bourne continues to get open, and provide rookie quarterback Mac Jones with a safe target in the short and intermediate areas of the field. His routes run have increased each of the past four weeks, and he’s beaten this prop in nine of the past 10 games.
The Bills have been tough against wide receivers, allowing the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the position. However, this total is too low, sitting three points below DraftKings and seven full points below PointsBet.
We project Bourne for 35.9 receiving yards, over seven yards more than this total. This is a seven-rated prop on Sean Koerner’s Player Prop Tool.
Stefon Diggs Under 57.5 Receiving Yards
We know the Patriots always limit the opposition’s top offensive receiving option, which in this case is Stefon Diggs.
Diggs torched the Patriots for 15 receptions and 237 receiving yards in two combined games last season. That was with a much better Josh Allen at quarterback against a much worse New England defense.
New England ranks second overall in defensive DVOA, including second in pass defense DVOA (FootballOutsiders). The Patriots are also third-best in DVOA to opposing No. 1 wide receivers, which will provide even more resistance for Diggs.
Throw in the anticipated rain and wind, and I’m fading Diggs in his toughest matchup of the season. Look for Allen to attack New England’s defense with other options such as wideouts Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders, and tight end Dawson Knox.
Devin Singletary Under 34.5 Rushing Yards
Devin Singletary led Buffalo in rushing attempts and yardage in Week 12 against New Orleans. However, that was in a very positive game script and without an active Zack Moss. Even with the majority of work, Singletary only produced 44 rushing yards on 15 carries.
We don’t know if Moss will be active, but Matt Breida certainly has looked like the better rusher the past three games. Breida has seen his carries triple from Week 10, and Buffalo should see a completely different game flow in a tough battle against the Patriots defense.
The public will be strongly on the over with this prop, especially given that Singletary has beat this number in four consecutive weeks. I’m betting on a more diverse touch share in the Buffalo backfield, a strong outing by Belichick’s defense, and a weather-limiting game script that keeps Singletary below this number.
