When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Using our Player Props Tool on Action Labs, we can easily identify the biggest discrepancies between his projections and the Monday Night Football props on PrizePicks to target the ones with the most value as the Rams head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for MNF
Cooper Kupp Over 91.5 Receiving Yards
With Robert Woods now out for the season, expect Cooper Kupp to see even more volume against San Francisco. Kupp leads all wide receivers in targets (103), receptions (74), receiving yards (1019) and touchdowns (10). He is averaging 113.2 receiving yards per game — and that was with Woods still siphoning targets.
This total on PrizePicks is at 91.5 yards, which is a full six yards below the 97.5 total on DraftKings. Using our FantasyLabs Player Prop tool, Kupp’s projection is at 96 yards with a mean of 102 yards. In a game with a point total above 50 (check real-time NFL odds here), I’m going to count on Kupp continuing his career year, even with San Francisco’s laser-like focus on limiting his production. Kupp runs such a variety of routes and ranks fourth in slot snaps, which makes it difficult to limit his output.
Elijah Mitchell Under 9.5 Receiving Yards
Elijah Mitchell is not an every-down running back, and has only averaged a 64% snap share this season. Against Arizona last week, Mitchell saw a season-high five receptions and 43 receiving yards. However, that was the result of JaMycal Hasty leaving the game with an ankle injury.
Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images. Pictured: San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell.
I expect running back Jeff Wilson Jr. to see an increased workload with Hasty now ruled out. Wilson should see the passing-game work, which could be substantial given the 50.5 point game total.
Mitchell has battled lingering injuries throughout the season, which has led to high variance in his rushing production. He has three games with over 100 yards and three games with 43 or fewer rushing yards. His receiving yardage has been minimal even in the games with high touch totals. Before last week, Mitchell saw zero targets in the prior two games despite rushing 18 times. I’m taking the under on Mitchell’s receiving yardage.
Brandon Aiyuk Under 4.0 Receptions
Brandon Aiyuk has started to show signs of life after spending most of the season in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse. However, I can’t see him getting to five receptions, even after finally reaching this number for the first time last week.
With George Kittle now fully healthy and Deebo Samuel still serving as the leading wide receiver, Aiyuk has more competition for targets than ever this season. He reached six receptions last week in a heavy negative game script, with San Francisco trailing 14-0 after the first quarter.
