When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner.
Using our Player Props Tool, we can easily identify the biggest discrepancies between Koerner’s projections and Saints-Dolphins props on PrizePicks to target the ones with the most value for this Monday Night Football showdown.
Let’s dive in.
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NFL Props: Dolphins-Saints
Ian Book Over 169.5 Pass Yards
While this will be Ian Book’s first ever NFL start, this total is well-below our projection — Koerner projects Book for 191.5 passing yards , 13.3% more than this prop total.
Book averaged 7.6 yards per attempt or better in his final three seasons at Notre Dame and has the same ability to extend plays at Taysom Hill. Book has a substantially better quarterback pedigree than Hill, who crested this number himself in two of the past three games.
The Saints will certainly have a conservative game plan, but I’m confident Book can average 85 passing yards per half to beat this number.
Alvin Kamara Over 21.5 Rec Yards
Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
The uncertainty surrounding Book’s first start has brought Kamara’s total to an unreasonable level. He will be the focus of the Saints offense on Monday night and should see a plethora of short passes from Book.
Kamara tallied only 13 receiving yards last week against the Bucs, but did so on six targets. He’s averaging 9.2 yards per reception this season, which means he’s need just three catches to beat this number.
There’s a ton of variation of this total, with other sites listing Kamara in the range of 24.5-28.5 receiving yards, but we project him for 30.1 receiving yards.
Jaylen Waddle Under 60.5 Rec Yards
The Dolphins now have a full arsenal of receiving weapons, with a healthy DeVante Parker receiving 13 targets over his past two games. Still, with Miami facing a stout New Orleans defense, we are taking the under on Jaylen Waddle’s receiving yardage prop.
Waddle is coming off the COVID list after missing the Dolphins’ last game against the Jets. He is averaging 65.3 receiving yards per game this season, but just 59.3 yards per game if we exclude the 137-yard performance against the Giants.
Waddle will now battle a New Orleans pass defense that ranks sixth overall in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA and 10th in fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. We project him for just 57.6 receiving yards, giving us a few yards of value against this number.
