When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner.
Using his projections in our Player Props Tool on Action Labs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll. Each week, I’ll identify which Thursday Night Football props on PrizePicks have the most value when compared with Sean’s projections.
Let’s take a closer look at tonight’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Philadelphia Eagles.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Ronald Jones Over 15.5 Rushing Yards
One of the trends I’ve noticed with Thursday Night Football is the increased usage of backup running backs. Starting with Week 2, here are the stat lines for some of the backup running backs:
- J.D. McKissic (Washington): 93 total yards, TD
- Chuba Hubbard (Carolina): 52 rushing yards
- Sony Michel (Los Angeles): 37 rushing yards, TD
While Hubbard was a direct result of the Christian McCaffrey injury, NFL teams tend to use multiple running backs due to the short turnaround from the Sunday game. Jones’ limited snap share has kept this prop low, but we still project him for more than double the total of this prop.
Even with his limited usage, Jones has crested this number in four of the five games this season. Philadelphia has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs on the season, leaving plenty of opportunity for Jones and teammate Leonard Fournette to both find rushing value.
This is a 10-rated prop on our tool, the highest possible rating by Sean Koerner.
Mike Evans Under 5.5 Receptions
Philadelphia has actually been surprisingly stingy to opposing wide receivers, especially with receptions. The Eagles have allowed only 48 total wide receiver receptions on the season, fewest in the NFL. Evans prop is 7.8% higher than our projection of 4.9 receptions, and is an 8-rated prop on our tool.
The Buccaneers passing attack is always diversified with talented receiving options that include Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Cameron Brate and Fournette.
Evans has always experienced extreme variance in his per-game reception totals, with seven games of three or fewer receptions in 2020. This season, Evans has hit this total in three of five games, but against the Eagles secondary, we will bet against the talented 28-year-old veteran.
Zach Ertz Under 4.5 Receptions
This prop has creeped up with the news that Dallas Goedert was placed on the Reserve/COVID list. There is still a chance that Goedert plays, but this prop is just too high regardless. Ertz has crested this number only once this season, and Philadelphia has always favored a two tight end approach on offense.
Undrafted free-agent Jack Stoll will see an increase in snaps, and his 11.22 (87th-percentile) Agility Score at 6-foot-4 makes him a great target in the passing game. That’s part why I don’t think the Eagles will give Ertz the additional volume if Goedert is absent. The passing game work should be distributed throughout the offense, making five receptions a difficult number to reach.
We project Ertz for 4.2 receptions, which is 6.7% below this prop total. This is also another 8-rated prop on Sean Koerner’s tool.
