One of the best ways to enjoy a standalone game like Thursday Night Football is to bet player props.
When it comes to NFL prop projections, there is simply no one better than our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner. Using his projections in our Player Props Tool at Action Labs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll.
Each Thursday, I’ll identify which TNF props on PrizePicks have the most attractive value when compared with Sean’s projections. Let’s take a closer look at the Week 7 matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Cleveland Browns.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30 total) than sports betting — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday Night Football
Teddy Bridgewater Over 19.5 Pass Completions
This number is too low for an accurate quarterback like Teddy Bridgewater, who has completed over 70% of his passes on the season. He has beat this prop in four of his five games, excluding the loss to the Ravens that he left early with an injury.
The only game he failed to reach this number was Denver’s 26-0 home shutout to the Jets. This game is projected as a close battle at Cleveland, with a 2-point spread and a low 41.5 point total. The Browns have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, so that might funnel Bridgewater into more attempts.
Even in last week’s 37-14 blowout loss to Arizona, the Browns still allowed quarterback Kyler Murray to reach 20 completions. The Browns defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, providing opportunities for Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick to generate targets in the short to intermediate area of the field.
We project Bridgewater for 21.6 completions, which is 2.1 competitions above this total. This is an 8-rated prop in the Action Labs Player Prop Tool.
D’Ernest Johnson Under 59.5 Rushing Yards
Cleveland will start its third-string running back tonight after injuries to both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. While the Browns are a run-first team, I have doubts about whether D’Ernest Johnson can just recreate the same production in the running game against the Broncos defense.
Denver’s run defense ranks eighth in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and allowed just 3.7 ypc last week against the Raiders.
The 25-year old Johnson bring limited athleticism, with just a 4.86 40-yard dash time and just a 110.4 (14th percentile) burst score per PlayerProfiler. He has just 11 total rushing yards on the season, and just one game in his NFL career with more yards than this total.
He tallied 95 rushing yards last year against Dallas, in a 49-38 win at Dallas. Tonight’s game projects to be the complete opposite, especially with a backup quarterback starting for Cleveland against a stout Denver defense.
We project Johnson for 55 rushing yards, 4.5 yards under the posted total on PrizePicks.
Javonte Williams Over 2.0 Receptions
The North Carolina rookie has gradually become more involved in the passing game, with a season-high 20 routes run in last week’s game against the Raiders.
Williams has four straight games with three receptions, and should be heavily utilized tonight in a game with projected 18 mph winds. Williams’ receiving ability is built on an 11.02 (89th percentile) agility score and 73rd percentile college target share (PlayerProfiler).
With injuries to both KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy, the Broncos have shown a willingness to deploy both Williams and backfield mate Melvin Gordon in passing routes. We project Williams for 2.3 receptions tonight in our Player Props Tool.
