DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.
Some lines for the Week 13 games have just been posted, and since the prop market moves quickly, I’m highlighting two bets I’m making immediately, based on the research I’ve done and the projections we have in the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
If you aren’t subscribing to FantasyLabs to get an edge on props, you’re living wrong.
This season, I’m 275-167-9 (+65.1) on NFL player props.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200 and a deposit bonus of up to $500.
Ravens RB Mark Ingram Rushing Yards
- Over 62.5: -112
- Under 62.5: -112
The Ravens lead the league with a 54.6% rush play rate, so they’re committed to the running game, but that doesn’t mean Ingram is locked in for lots of action this week.
After a hot start to the season with 82 rushing yards per game in the first month, Ingram has averaged just 64.3 rushing yards since week 5. And that number is skewed because of a couple of big performances: Only twice over the past two months has Ingram had more than 62.5 yards.
A touchdown-driven producer, Ingram simply isn’t used as a high-volume back because the Ravens can distribute carries to quarterback Lamar Jackson and running backs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill.
And the 49ers don’t offer an easy matchup. For the year, they’ve allowed just 84.7 yards per game to opposing backfields. If Edwards and Hill combine for their customary 10-plus carries, Ingram might be challenged to get enough carries to hit the over.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Ingram projected for 49.8 rushing yards.
Pick: Under 62.5 (-112) [In New Jersey, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Jets RB Le’Veon Bell Receiving Yards
- Over 33.5: -112
- Under 33.5: -112
Bell is a great pass-catching back. In his 2014-17 heyday with the Steelers, he averaged 46.1 receiving yards and 6.8 targets per game.
And he has a great matchup against the Bengals, who are No. 30 in pass defense against running backs (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).
But the Jets are not using Bell heavily as a receiver.
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Le’Veon Bell
In his eight games with quarterback Sam Darnold, Bell has just 29.3 receiving yards and 4.9 targets per game.
The Jets are 3-point favorites, so they might have more of a run-heavy game script than they usually do, which would likely mean fewer targets for Bell.
And over the past few weeks, Bell’s snap rate has dropped precipitously as the Jets have given more playing time to Bilal Powell and Ty Montgomery, both of whom are good pass-catching backs. In each of his first eight games, Bell had a snap rate above 80%. But since Week 10, he’s averaged a 62% rate.
With Powell and Montgomery seeing more playing time, some of the targets that used to go to Bell are now going to them.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Bell projected for 27.4 receiving yards.
Pick: Under 46.5 (-108) [In New Jersey, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10
To see the rest of the player props I’m betting for Week 13, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my prop card throughout the weekend.
