Everyone’s least favorite football game of the season is almost here!
The 2019 Pro Bowl once again pits the AFC against the NFC, as they haven’t utilized a draft format since 2016. The NFL’s glorified version of a 7-on-7 game has a multitude of strange and unique rules meant to enhance player safety as well as increase pace of play.
As FantasyLabs’ Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman so eloquently put it last year, playing this one-game slate is like walking into a jungle without a compass. We have no data in our Models, which means the following advice is the closest thing you’ll get to a compass.
Let’s get to it, starting with how the rules will impact the game/player production.
Pro Bowl Rules to Know
The Pro Bowl is not “cool.” It simply has an extended list of nuanced and unique rules including …
- Timeouts: Teams have two timeouts per quarter. Unused timeouts from the first and third quarters carry over to the second and fourth quarters.
- Two-minute warning: Each quarter has a two-minute warning, and possession changes after every quarter.
- Kickoffs: There are none.
- Secondary configuration and coverage: The defense is not allowed to use nickel and dime subpackages. In other words, no more than four defensive backs can be on the field at a time. Also, defenses are allowed to use a Cover 2 zone and press coverage. (Before the 2014 game, they were allowed to use only man coverage.) The defense isn’t allowed to blitz, and it must be in a 4-3 at all times.
- Tight ends: One must always be on the field for the offense.
- The clock: Within the two-minute warning, the clock stops if the offense does not gain at least one yard on a play. Incomplete passes, though, don’t stop the clock except within the last two minutes of the first half and the last five minutes of the second half. A 35-/25-second play clock is used instead of the standard 40-/25-second clock. And sacks don’t stop the clock except in the final two minutes of the game. The impact of these rules is the Pro Bowl is shorter/played faster.
- Goal posts: The NFL utilizes goal posts with a width of 18 feet for field goals, but allegedly squeezes things down to 14 feet for extra points. I’m just as confused as you are.
This combination of a lack of preparation time and unmotivated players has unsurprisingly made for some dreadful game play over the years.
In fact, there’s arguably only one redeeming moment in the entire history of the Pro Bowl. RIP Sean Taylor.
The Pro Bowl Is Absurdly Random
The Pro Bowl’s freaky rule set has led to annual startling statistical achievements over the years:
- In 2018, tight end Kyle Rudolph converted a game-high eight targets into seven receptions and 70 scoreless-yards. Rudolph didn’t surpass even 65 receiving yards in 18 games that season (including playoffs).
- In 2017, fullback Kyle Juszczyk led all backs in fantasy scoring with 51 yards on three carries and five receptions.
- In 2016, Team Jerry Rice quarterbacks combined to throw six interceptions … and these were so-called All-Star passers.
- In 2015, fullback John Kuhn led the Carter team with 31 yards rushing. He had only two carries, which was two carries too many.
- In 2014, running back Alfred Morris led the Deion Sanders team with four receptions and 69 yards receiving. In the season leading up to that game, he had only nine receptions for 78 yards.
- In 2013, return specialist Leon Washington led the game with five carries. He had seven yards rushing.
- In 2012, quarterback Drew Brees attempted an extra point. He missed.
Still, each individual position has demonstrated some level of consistency over the past five years.
Quarterbacks have largely refrained from throwing more than 20 passes. Only Matthew Stafford (316 yards in 2015) has managed to clear even 200 passing yards during the past five Pro Bowls.
Still, this rotation means that each quarterback usually gets several drives to work their magic, and 21-of-30 quarterbacks since 2014 have accordingly thrown at least one touchdown pass in the Pro Bowl.
Dual-threat quarterbacks haven’t offered much of any upside on the ground, as Tyrod Taylor’s 15 rushing yards in 2016 are the most by a quarterback in five years, and Cam Newton is the only signal caller to score a rushing touchdown.
Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LeSean McCoy
Production on the ground in the Pro Bowl is largely unheard of for actual running backs as well. Doug Martin and LeSean McCoy join Newton as the only players with a rushing touchdown in the Pro Bowl over the past five seasons.
Only Mark Ingram (72 yards in 2015) has managed to clear 50 yards rushing — he’s also the only player with double-digit rushing attempts during this exhibition.
Running the ball is clearly not a priority in the Pro Bowl.
Receiver is where we begin to see some normality. Twenty-five different players have gained at least 50 receiving yards in the Pro Bowl since 2014, and 24 managed to find the end zone. The 99 players who have been targeted in the Pro Bowl averaged 4.3 in the game, while our 55 player sample of rushers averaged only 3.4 rush attempts.
Wide receivers have been the most-targeted and productive group, but tight ends have surprisingly managed scored more touchdowns during the past five matchups.
Of course, more wide receivers populate the roster than running backs or tight ends, so there’s accordingly more variance at the position. Tight ends have unquestionably been the more productive position in the Pro Bowl when we take the average of their totals instead of the sum.
The Pro Bowl’s unique rule set prohibits defenses from adequately matching personnel, while offenses are required to keep one tight end on the field at all times. The league’s most talented tight ends have accordingly thrived against their over-matched counterparts.
Pro Bowl DFS Breakdown
It’s obviously more difficult than usual to project individual usage at the Pro Bowl, so I’ll focus on historical usage rates at the event and on value as opposed to what we might see out of any given player.
Captain Position
Wide receivers and tight ends seem to be most capable of playing for the majority of the afternoon. There are enough quarterbacks and running backs on each roster for both the AFC and NFC to comfortably rotate at the position, so using a pass-catcher at the captain spot seems optimal in full-PPR scoring.
FanDuel’s MVP position offers much more value than DraftKings at wide receiver. This can and should be exploited considering each team is only expected to have two tight ends and four to five receivers.
Quarterbacks
Below are the quarterbacks slated to participate as of writing. Note that the following DraftKings price tags denote each player’s ‘Flex’ salary as opposed to their ‘Captain’ salary.
- Patrick Mahomes, AFC: $8,400 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel
- Deshaun Watson, AFC: $7,600 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel
- Andrew Luck, AFC: $6,800 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel
- Russell Wilson, NFC: $7,400 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel
- Mitchell Trubisky, NFC: $6,600 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
- Dak Prescott, NFC: $5,800 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Mahomes and Wilson are expected to draw the starts for the AFC and NFC, respectively. This is bad news for their DFS prospects, as the Pro Bowl starter has historically only played two to three series or a full quarter at most. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see these players carry heightened ownership considering their respectful fan-friendly style of play.
This leaves us with Watson, Luck, Trubisky and Prescott.
Watson seems like a worthy investment considering his ability to extend plays and tendency to take shots downfield. It’ll also be fun to watch him play behind what will easily be the best offensive line of his career. This game format sets up perfectly for the Michael Jordan of fantasy football.
Luck, Trubisky and Prescott are certainly capable of racking up fantasy points in this random format, and they could benefit from extended second-half playing time.
Running Backs
Here are the running backs (and fullbacks):
- Melvin Gordon, AFC: $6,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
- James Conner, AFC: $5,000 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
- Lamar Miller, AFC: $2,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
- Anthony Sherman, AFC: $200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
- Saquon Barkley, NFC: $8,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
- Alvin Kamara, NFC: $7,000 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
- Ezekiel Elliott, NFC: $6,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
- Tarik Cohen, NFC: $3,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
- Kyle Juszczyk, NFC: $800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
The lack of rushing attempts in the Pro Bowl makes the running back position one we should attempt to avoid in DFS.
This is particularly true for running backs who haven’t demonstrated an ability to thrive as a receiver.
- Rushing production from RBs in the Pro Bowl, 2014-18: 720 yards, 2 TDs
- Receiving production from RBs in the Pro Bowl, 2014-18: 821 yards, 4 TDs
All of the above running backs are more than capable of catching passes out of the backfield, but some are certainly more complete receivers than others. Kamara (25.8%), Cohen (33.9%) and Juszczyk (16%) are the only backs who spent more than 15% of their snaps in the slot or out wide this season.
Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Juszczyk
Juszczyk could be relied on in pass protection, and he managed to catch multiple passes in 10-of-16 games this season.
Wide Receivers
The divas of the event are…
- Tyreek Hill, AFC: $9,400 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, AFC: $9,200 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
- Keenan Allen, AFC: $6,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
- Jarvis Landry, AFC: $5,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
- Andre Roberts, AFC: $200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
- Adam Thielen, NFC: $8,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
- Davante Adams, NFC: $8,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
- Mike Evans, NFC: $7,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
- Amari Cooper, NFC: $5,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Hill managed only two catches for 27 scoreless-yards in his first two Pro Bowl appearances. It’s unclear whether he’ll even have return duties due to the presence of Roberts, who caught just 10 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown all season.
It takes only one big play to cash in on Hill’s tantalizing ceiling, but he’ll likely join his quarterback among the slate’s highest-owned players. He also seems like the best candidate among the group to leave the game early.
There’s a 0% chance that Smith-Schuster hasn’t already planned out multiple touchdown dances for this occasion. No other player in the game is on JuJu’s level when it comes to social media, so expect the Steelers’ No. 1 (?!?) receiver to take full advantage of the stage.
Landry (5-78-0 and 3-81-1) took better advantage of his previous Pro Bowl opportunities than Allen (2-18-0). The Browns’ new-look offense with Freddie Kitchens calling plays didn’t feed Landry double-digit targets in a game from Weeks 9-17, but Landry possesses a Pro Bowl-friendly combination of run-after-the-catch goodness and contested-catch ability.
It remains to be seen whether Adams (knee) will suit up, but his questionable status should result in limited snaps regardless. Thielen was clearly the more consistent receiver over Evans and Cooper during the regular season — although Thielen (WR18) finished behind both Evans (WR11) and Cooper (WR9) over the second half of the season.
The wide receiver position has consistently yielded the most production in the Pro Bowl over the past five seasons. Mahomes-Hill, Trubisky-Cohen and Prescott-Cooper are three teammate stacks to consider, but it’s probably a good idea to be overweight on the receiver and tight ends positions as a whole.
Tight Ends
Here are the event’s most valuable players as far as DFS is concerned:
- Eric Ebron, AFC: $3,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
- Jared Cook, AFC: $2,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
- George Kittle, NFC: $5,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
- Austin Hooper, NFC: $1,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Again: Each team is forced to play a tight end on every snap of the game, and defenses are pretty much handcuffed from trying to appropriately match up with them. This is especially problematic for defenses in 2019, as all of these tight ends largely worked as part-time receivers for most of the season.
Ebron (64.6%), Cook (45.6%), Kittle (28%) and Hooper (39.5%) spent at least a quarter of their snaps in the slot or out wide this season. Hooper in particular seems to offer some value considering his reduced price tag. He’s demonstrated big play ability throughout his career as Matt Ryan’s trusted tight end.
Pro Bowl tight ends have historically been used more as receivers than blockers. Every player in this season’s group has the ability for a big game, although Ebron’s consistent injuries down the stretch make him the prime candidate for reduced snaps.
Kickers and Defense
Freedman is the smartest man I know when it comes to NFL kickers.
He had this to say on the subject in last year’s breakdown:
“I like kickers as much as the next degenerate who grinds kicker props every Sunday, but Pro Bowl kickers tend not to fair well. Since 2015 they’ve had the narrowed goal posts for extra points. They don’t have their typical holders, so there’s more opportunity for miscommunication and botched attempts.
“They also participate in high-scoring games in which touchdowns are at a premium, so would-be field goals are bypassed in favor of fourth-down conversion attempts.”
Both Jason Myers ($3,300) and Aldrick Rosas ($3,300) are more expensive than Hooper and Juszczyk. If you’re going to risk money on something as silly as the Pro Bowl, do yourself a favor and don’t include the betas of the sport that hardly offer any upside anyways.
The game’s zero-blitz format that doesn’t include a vast array of coverages makes it tough for defenses to take over. Still, there’s plenty of potential for a random defensive or special teams touchdown in a matchup against offenses that have had under a week to practice together.
Both teams have combined for fewer than 50 points in three of the last five matchups, while that total was surpassed in 12-of-13 games from 2000-2012.
Pictured above: Adam Thielen
Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
