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NFL Preseason Fantasy Breakdown (Thu. 8/23): Capitalize on the Eagles’ Injuries

Thursday Night Football kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET. Some starters played up to two quarters last week, and Week 3 traditionally features the most game-like atmosphere for the majority of first-team units. In many cases, we can rely on the usage from Weeks 1-2 to give us a sense of the current depth charts and ways in which players are likely to be used now.

If you haven’t played preseason daily fantasy before, check out preseason sharp Sean Newsham’s five DFS guidelines for dominating the NFL preseason as well as the “Daily Fantasy Flex” episode in which he and Matthew Freedman break down the secrets of the preseason schedule.

For more guidance, see our industry-leading Models, which contain preseason player projections for subscribers. If you’re a redraft player, check out our FREE standard and point-per-reception rankings as well as in-house oddsmaker Sean Koerner’s season-long player projections.

Be sure to keep an eye out for late-breaking news on player availability before lineups lock.



Quarterbacks

Nick Foles (Eagles): Foles suffered a strained right shoulder in a Week 2 loss to the Patriots, but head coach Doug Pederson has already declared him ready to play the entire first half tonight. The days of doubting Foles’ ceiling are over, although the Browns defense this year might not resemble the fantasy punching bag we’ve grown used to seeing.

Of course, a one-game preseason slate isn’t the time to fade a starting quarterback, especially against a young and unproven unit still coached by Gregg Williams.

The Eagles are in a bit of a pinch at running back and receiver (more on that in a bit), so consider stacking Foles with tight ends Zach Ertz and/or Dallas Goedert. Per the FantasyLabs Correlations Dashboard, Eagles quarterbacks last year enjoyed a strong 0.52 correlation with their TE1, well above the league-average mark of 0.40 since 2017.

Baker Mayfield (Browns): Head coach Hue Jackson and general manager John Dorsey have remained adamant that Tyrod Taylor is the team’s starting quarterback. Still, Jackson has already stated Mayfield will “play quite a bit” Thursday night, as Taylor won’t play more than a half.

Stacking multiple quarterbacks is a viable strategy in a showdown contest, so Taylor’s potential for 30 minutes of game time puts him in play. Still, it’s tough to ignore how efficient Mayfield has been through two weeks, completing 18-of-33 passes for 287 yards with a 2-0 TD-INT ratio.

Mayfield won’t and shouldn’t be confused with Taylor as a runner, but he has racked up seven rush attempts during his brief preseason action, and he scored at least five rushing touchdowns in each of his three seasons at Oklahoma.

More Fantasy Football Content from The Action Network

Running Backs

Josh Adams (Eagles): The Eagles running back room might as well be a hospital ward, although none of the backs ruled out for this game are expected to miss any regular season time.

  • RB Jay Ajayi (lower body)
  • RB Darren Sproles (rest)
  • RB Corey Clement (lower body)
  • RB Donnel Pumphrey (lower body)

This leaves Adams, Wendell Smallwood and Matt Jones to handle backfield duties tonight. Adams said he plans to play against the Browns after briefly missing time with a tweaked ankle, and he offers theoretical three-down size and ability, which he flashed in Week 1 by gaining 41 yards on just eight touches.

NIck Chubb (Browns): Chubb turned in a strong 11-53-1 rushing line last week after his Week 1 dud, and he could again see plenty of work with Carlos Hyde (shoulder) banged up. The second-rounder could have a tough time absorbing a featured regular-season workload in a crowded backfield, but his stocky 5-foot-11 and 227-pound frame combined with a general lack of flair can cause some people to forget how special of an athlete Chubb is.

  • 98th-percentile SPARQ athlete (PlayerProfiler)
  • Fifth in the nation in Elusive Rating in 2017 (Pro Football Focus)
  • Combined with Sony Michel to break the all-time teammate rushing record held by the Pony Express since 1982

Wide Receivers

Rashard Higgins (Browns): Higgins has bottom-tier athleticism, and his average of 0.66 yards per route run ranked 114th out of 118 qualified wide receivers last season.

One-game preseason slates are a helluva drug.

What Higgins does possess (at least for tonight) is opportunity. Josh Gordon won’t play despite reporting to camp earlier this week, Antonio Callaway has missed plenty of practice time with a groin injury and Dez Bryant is yet to be signed. The Browns’ third-year receiver has posted a 6-86-0 line this preseason and is locked in as the offense’s No. 4 receiver, which means he could see significant snaps with both starters and backups this week.

Shelton Gibson (Eagles): As is the case at running back, the Eagles have a slew of injuries at receiver:

  • Nelson Agholor (lower body, out)
  • Alshon Jeffery (shoulder, out)
  • Markus Wheaton (hamstring, questionable)
  • Mack Hollins (sports hernia, questionable)
  • Bryce Treggs (hamstring, questionable)

Gibson was briefly banged up in Week 2 but is fully expected to suit up tonight. He’s posted a gaudy 7-167-2 line this preseason, regularly finding himself on the other end of Nate Sudfeld‘s deep passes. The former fifth-rounder averaged a ridiculous 22.6 yards per reception in college and could continue to receive additional preseason-downfield opportunities thanks to the team’s depleted depth chart.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert (Eagles): Goedert looks like a weekly TE1 candidate anytime Ertz is out, as the second-rounder has posted a strong 7-123-1 preseason line. The 6-foot-5 and 256-pound tight end possesses true in-line ability and could see snaps with the first-team offense alongside Ertz even before getting additional action with the backups.

Ultimately, the biggest thing in Goedert’s favor is his matchup against a Browns defense that often puts its free safety 30 yards from the line of scrimmage. Bills tight end Nick O’Leary torched this season’s “new-and-improved” unit for a 4-70-1 line on four targets last week, and the Browns were one of just three defenses to surrender double-digit touchdowns to tight ends in 2017.

Defense

The Eagles and Browns each boast a talented front seven to complement a somewhat underwhelming group of cornerbacks. Rostering both defenses makes sense in a single-game preseason slate. From Newsham’s preseason strategy piece:

In the preseason, defenses are far more valuable and predictable than they are during the regular season, when the best offensive players see the vast majority of snaps. In the preseason, because teams cycle through offensive units, the only ‘players’ who earn stats throughout an entire game are defenses (and sometimes kickers). On top of that, scores are lower in the preseason, which results in higher fantasy scoring for defenses. For instance, in Week 1 of the preseason, not one game has an over/under of more than 37 points. But for Week 1 of the regular season, every game has a total of at least 41 points.

Kickers

Kickers are a reliable play in preseason DFS considering they’re usually the only players with a chance to play all four quarters. Jake Elliott is the Eagles’ undisputed kicker, but the Browns’ tightly-contested kicking competition has resulted in split reps thus far.



Photo credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured above: Nate Sudfeld and Doug Pederson

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Thursday Night Football kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET. Some starters played up to two quarters last week, and Week 3 traditionally features the most game-like atmosphere for the majority of first-team units. In many cases, we can rely on the usage from Weeks 1-2 to give us a sense of the current depth charts and ways in which players are likely to be used now.

If you haven’t played preseason daily fantasy before, check out preseason sharp Sean Newsham’s five DFS guidelines for dominating the NFL preseason as well as the “Daily Fantasy Flex” episode in which he and Matthew Freedman break down the secrets of the preseason schedule.

For more guidance, see our industry-leading Models, which contain preseason player projections for subscribers. If you’re a redraft player, check out our FREE standard and point-per-reception rankings as well as in-house oddsmaker Sean Koerner’s season-long player projections.

Be sure to keep an eye out for late-breaking news on player availability before lineups lock.



Quarterbacks

Nick Foles (Eagles): Foles suffered a strained right shoulder in a Week 2 loss to the Patriots, but head coach Doug Pederson has already declared him ready to play the entire first half tonight. The days of doubting Foles’ ceiling are over, although the Browns defense this year might not resemble the fantasy punching bag we’ve grown used to seeing.

Of course, a one-game preseason slate isn’t the time to fade a starting quarterback, especially against a young and unproven unit still coached by Gregg Williams.

The Eagles are in a bit of a pinch at running back and receiver (more on that in a bit), so consider stacking Foles with tight ends Zach Ertz and/or Dallas Goedert. Per the FantasyLabs Correlations Dashboard, Eagles quarterbacks last year enjoyed a strong 0.52 correlation with their TE1, well above the league-average mark of 0.40 since 2017.

Baker Mayfield (Browns): Head coach Hue Jackson and general manager John Dorsey have remained adamant that Tyrod Taylor is the team’s starting quarterback. Still, Jackson has already stated Mayfield will “play quite a bit” Thursday night, as Taylor won’t play more than a half.

Stacking multiple quarterbacks is a viable strategy in a showdown contest, so Taylor’s potential for 30 minutes of game time puts him in play. Still, it’s tough to ignore how efficient Mayfield has been through two weeks, completing 18-of-33 passes for 287 yards with a 2-0 TD-INT ratio.

Mayfield won’t and shouldn’t be confused with Taylor as a runner, but he has racked up seven rush attempts during his brief preseason action, and he scored at least five rushing touchdowns in each of his three seasons at Oklahoma.

More Fantasy Football Content from The Action Network

Running Backs

Josh Adams (Eagles): The Eagles running back room might as well be a hospital ward, although none of the backs ruled out for this game are expected to miss any regular season time.

  • RB Jay Ajayi (lower body)
  • RB Darren Sproles (rest)
  • RB Corey Clement (lower body)
  • RB Donnel Pumphrey (lower body)

This leaves Adams, Wendell Smallwood and Matt Jones to handle backfield duties tonight. Adams said he plans to play against the Browns after briefly missing time with a tweaked ankle, and he offers theoretical three-down size and ability, which he flashed in Week 1 by gaining 41 yards on just eight touches.

NIck Chubb (Browns): Chubb turned in a strong 11-53-1 rushing line last week after his Week 1 dud, and he could again see plenty of work with Carlos Hyde (shoulder) banged up. The second-rounder could have a tough time absorbing a featured regular-season workload in a crowded backfield, but his stocky 5-foot-11 and 227-pound frame combined with a general lack of flair can cause some people to forget how special of an athlete Chubb is.

  • 98th-percentile SPARQ athlete (PlayerProfiler)
  • Fifth in the nation in Elusive Rating in 2017 (Pro Football Focus)
  • Combined with Sony Michel to break the all-time teammate rushing record held by the Pony Express since 1982

Wide Receivers

Rashard Higgins (Browns): Higgins has bottom-tier athleticism, and his average of 0.66 yards per route run ranked 114th out of 118 qualified wide receivers last season.

One-game preseason slates are a helluva drug.

What Higgins does possess (at least for tonight) is opportunity. Josh Gordon won’t play despite reporting to camp earlier this week, Antonio Callaway has missed plenty of practice time with a groin injury and Dez Bryant is yet to be signed. The Browns’ third-year receiver has posted a 6-86-0 line this preseason and is locked in as the offense’s No. 4 receiver, which means he could see significant snaps with both starters and backups this week.

Shelton Gibson (Eagles): As is the case at running back, the Eagles have a slew of injuries at receiver:

  • Nelson Agholor (lower body, out)
  • Alshon Jeffery (shoulder, out)
  • Markus Wheaton (hamstring, questionable)
  • Mack Hollins (sports hernia, questionable)
  • Bryce Treggs (hamstring, questionable)

Gibson was briefly banged up in Week 2 but is fully expected to suit up tonight. He’s posted a gaudy 7-167-2 line this preseason, regularly finding himself on the other end of Nate Sudfeld‘s deep passes. The former fifth-rounder averaged a ridiculous 22.6 yards per reception in college and could continue to receive additional preseason-downfield opportunities thanks to the team’s depleted depth chart.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert (Eagles): Goedert looks like a weekly TE1 candidate anytime Ertz is out, as the second-rounder has posted a strong 7-123-1 preseason line. The 6-foot-5 and 256-pound tight end possesses true in-line ability and could see snaps with the first-team offense alongside Ertz even before getting additional action with the backups.

Ultimately, the biggest thing in Goedert’s favor is his matchup against a Browns defense that often puts its free safety 30 yards from the line of scrimmage. Bills tight end Nick O’Leary torched this season’s “new-and-improved” unit for a 4-70-1 line on four targets last week, and the Browns were one of just three defenses to surrender double-digit touchdowns to tight ends in 2017.

Defense

The Eagles and Browns each boast a talented front seven to complement a somewhat underwhelming group of cornerbacks. Rostering both defenses makes sense in a single-game preseason slate. From Newsham’s preseason strategy piece:

In the preseason, defenses are far more valuable and predictable than they are during the regular season, when the best offensive players see the vast majority of snaps. In the preseason, because teams cycle through offensive units, the only ‘players’ who earn stats throughout an entire game are defenses (and sometimes kickers). On top of that, scores are lower in the preseason, which results in higher fantasy scoring for defenses. For instance, in Week 1 of the preseason, not one game has an over/under of more than 37 points. But for Week 1 of the regular season, every game has a total of at least 41 points.

Kickers

Kickers are a reliable play in preseason DFS considering they’re usually the only players with a chance to play all four quarters. Jake Elliott is the Eagles’ undisputed kicker, but the Browns’ tightly-contested kicking competition has resulted in split reps thus far.



Photo credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured above: Nate Sudfeld and Doug Pederson

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

NFL Breakdown: Week 1 Quarterbacks NFL Breakdown: Week 6 Wide Receivers NFL Breakdown: Week 9 Quarterbacks NFL Preseason Fantasy Breakdown (Sat. 8/25): Stack 49ers Passing Game vs. Colts