Football is officially back! Well, kind of. The preseason does give DFS players a chance to whet their appetites before the main attraction of the regular season.
If you’re new to preseason DFS, there are key differences to remember when setting your rosters. For starters, the rosters are substantially larger. Each team currently has 90 players on their roster, but that number will be trimmed to 53 during the regular season. Most teams use the preseason to try and evaluate their entire roster, so expect nearly every player to see the field.
Volume is everything in the preseason. If the starters are only going to play one or two drives before ceding to the backups, the backups will inherently carry more fantasy value. Talent is simply not that important. Maybe the starters can score a touchdown in their limited playing time, but chasing volume will be a more sustainable strategy in the long term.
Luckily, FantasyLabs now has preseason projections in our NFL Models to help you build your lineups. Additionally, Chris Raybon put together a guide a few years ago with some helpful tips for beating preseason DFS.
Let’s dive into Saturday’s five-game main slate.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Volume is king at every position in the preseason, but none more so than quarterback. We’re looking to target the players who will see the most snaps at the position. That means we’re looking for teams that are resting their starters – and potentially a key backup – and teams carrying less than four quarterbacks.
The Saints fit the above criteria. Jameis Winston tweaked his foot at practice earlier this week, and he’s been ruled out for the first preseason game. Taysom Hill has also worked exclusively as a tight end since returning to practice on August 8th, and he’s been wearing a red non-contact jersey. It wouldn’t be surprising if he sat out this contest as well.
That leaves Andy Dalton and Ian Book to handle the quarterback responsibilities on Saturday. Dalton is an 11-year NFL veteran with plenty of experience under his belt. He’s started 148 games in his career, so it doesn’t seem like he has much to prove during the preseason.
That leaves Book to handle most of the workload. Book disappointed in his lone regular season start last year, finishing with just 135 yards and two interceptions. However, he was serviceable in his only preseason appearance.
Book was also a fourth-round selection in the 2021 NFL Draft, so the Saints are somewhat invested in him. It would be beneficial to try and find out if he has a future in the NFL.
Quick Hits
- Jeff Driskel, Texans: Driskel might be looking at the most playing time on this slate. Starter Davis Mills is expected to play a few series, but backup Kyle Allen is out with COVID. That leaves Driskel to play upwards of three quarters. Driskell barely played in the preseason last year – he was 2-8 for 16 yards – but he impressed in four games in 2018.
- Bryce Perkins, Rams: Perkins was a preseason DFS favorite last year, delivering 451 yards and three scores through the air to go along with 114 yards on the ground. The rushing upside is legit, with Perkins being clocked among the fastest players in the preseason last year). Matthew Stafford and John Wolford are not expected to play on Saturday, so Wolford should have plenty of opportunities.
- Easton Stick, Chargers: Stick was another preseason favorite last year, but his numbers were not nearly as impressive as Perkins. However, Stick possesses elite athleticism for the QB position, ranking in the 91st percentile for 40-yard dash time and the 100th percentile in Agility Score (per Player Profiler). He also averaged 11.8 yards per attempt in college, albeit at a small school in North Dakota State.
Running Back
At running back, we should be looking to target players at or near the bottom of their team’s depth chart. Only nine players averaged 10 or more carries per game during the preseason in 2021, and the vast majority were players that were basically unknown. Specifically, undrafted free agents tend to get most of the work at the position during the preseason, especially when teams are looking to kill the clock at the end of games.
The Cowboys stand out as the most appealing team to target on Saturday. Ezekiel Elliott is not expected to suit up in this contest, and Tony Pollard shouldn’t get much work either. Rico Dowdle is also not expected to play after testing positive for COVID-19, while Ryan Nall is out the next 2-4 weeks with a shoulder injury.
That leaves two players to handle most of the workload: Malik Davis and Aaron Shampklin. Both players are undrafted free agent rookies, so they fit the profile of what we’re looking for in the preseason.
Davis attended Florida, where he racked up 6.0 yards per carry throughout his college career. His athletic measurables aren’t impressive, outside of a Burst Score that puts him in the 94th percentile per Player Profiler.
He’s ahead of Shampklin on the depth chart, who went undrafted out of Harvard. There’s very little information available on him, but both players should be busy on Saturday. That’s really all we’re looking for.
Quick Hits
- Jaylen Warren & Master Teague, Steelers: These are two more UDFAs who should be looking at ample playing time. Najee Harris isn’t guaranteed to start, while the bottom of the Steelers’ depth chart is banged up. Jeremy McNichols was recently placed on IR, while Mataeo Durant was held out of practice recently. If Durant – a fellow UDFA – cannot suit up, Warren and Teague should carry the load down the stretch.
- Kenjon Barner, Buccaneers: The Bucs have a thin depth chart at running back, featuring just five starters. Leonard Fournette isn’t expected to play, and it doesn’t make much sense for Rachaad White, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, or Giovani Bernard to do too much in an exhibition. Barner has bounced around the league forever and could grind this game down in the second half.
- Max Borghi, Broncos: Denver is another team with a limited depth chart at RB. They have just five active options, and neither Javonte Williams nor Melvin Gordon figures to play much in the first preseason contest. Borghi should be asked to close the game out as the UDFA.
- Any other undrafted rookie: Are you sensing a pattern here? According to Raybon’s research, most top fantasy scorers at running back are UDFAs. That seems to jive with last year’s results, where Rhamondre Stevenson was the only real known commodity to find success at the position.
Wide Receiver
Like running back, wide receiver is a position where youth tends to dominate in the preseason. Undrafted free agents remain the king, but drafted players have more opportunities to make an impact. For example, Tutu Atwell led all players in preseason targets (29) last year, while Terrace Marshall Jr. ranked second in yards.
Also, don’t expect there to be much scoring done through the air during the preseason. Only 14 players caught a touchdown last year, although seven did have multiple scores. That suggests that preseason scoring is a skill, so don’t be afraid to go back to the well with someone if they scored a touchdown in a previous week. That goes double if they’re expected to work with the same quarterback.
You can’t blame the Broncos if they’re hesitant to play their top receivers at this point. They’ve already lost Tim Patrick to a torn ACL, the third straight year that one of their top receivers has gone down early with a season-ending injury. With that in mind, I would not be surprised if they were extremely cautious with guys like Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy.
They’ve also had some depth options like Kendall Hinton and Tyrie Cleveland miss practice recently, so they could also be out of the lineup on Saturday.
They have a trio of undrafted free agents who should factor into the mix in the first preseason game: Jalen Virgil, Brandon Johnson, and Kaden Davis. Don’t sleep on Travis Fulgham either, who tore up the league for a few weeks with the Eagles in 2020-21. He’s a big, physical target who put up some impressive numbers in college, and his previous pro success is appealing.
Quick Hits
- Deven Thompkins, Kameron Brown, Jarreth Sterns, & Kaylon Geiger, Buccaneers: The Bucs truly have an embarrassment of riches at the receiver position. Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller are barely inside the top 10, which is absurd. These four players round out the bottom of the depth chart and should be busy during exhibition season. There’s no real need for the Bucs to risk their more veteran players at the position.
- Johnny Johnson III, Texans: I’m not sure how much the top receivers will play for the Texans, but I’d imagine they’ll depart after Mills does. The bottom of their depth chart is banged up, so Johnson is someone who could see plenty of playing time in the second half. Nothing about his prospect profile is encouraging, but he’s a warm body for a team that needs one.
- Tutu Atwell, Rams: Atwell intrigues me primarily because of what he did during the preseason last year. He had 29 targets in his three preseason games, which was the most in the league by a crazy margin. Davion Davis was second in that department at 19 targets with the Texans. Atwell holds basically the same spot on the depth chart as last year, so I wouldn’t expect much to change this season.
Tight End
Tight end is easily the weakest position in preseason DFS. That’s not a huge surprise – it’s the weakest position during the regular season as well – but the gap is even wider during exhibition season. According to Cody Main from Establish the Run, tight ends average just 1.6 DraftKings points per game during the preseason. That’s easily the worst mark among the flex positions, with receivers averaging 2.9 and running backs averaging 3.5.
Additionally, the tight end position tends to produce few ceiling games during the preseason. Ignoring the position altogether makes sense for single-game slates, but unfortunately, we’ll have to pick one in the classic format.
The Steelers have a couple of young guys at the top of the depth chart in Pat Freiermuth and Zach Gentry, but it wouldn’t be shocking if both sit out. Both have recently dealt with injuries in camp, although Freiermuth appears to be back to full strength.
I’m happy to roll the dice with Jace Sternberger at the bottom of the depth chart. The former third-round pick out of Texas A&M was a receiving monster in college, ranking in the 93rd percentile in Dominator Rating and the 94th percentile in yards per reception.
Quick Hits
- Peyton Hendershot, Cowboys: Targeting undrafted free agents at TE isn’t quite as viable as it is at RB and WR, but Hendershot still makes some sense on this slate. The Cowboys aren’t particularly deep at tight end, and some of the other guys on the depth chart have missed time recently.
- Erik Krommenhoek & Sage Surratt, Chargers: The Chargers are another squad with a light depth chart at tight end, especially following the injury to Donald Parham Jr. Krommenhoek is the UDFA, while Surratt was signed in July. He’s a former wide receiver, so his skill set is intriguing at TE.
