The Highlights:
- The Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens will face off in Canton, Ohio for the 2018 NFL Hall of Fame game on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET (NBC).
- We break down general preseason strategy and the top plays at each position.
- Ravens quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Josh Woodrum provide dual-threat ability ideal for the MVP slot.
Football is back! I already broke down what to watch for in Ravens-Bears and how to bet the game, so now I’ll analyze the game from a DFS perspective for the single-game contests that DraftKings and FanDuel are offering.
Who Will Play?
Last season’s Hall of Fame game between the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals didn’t feature either team’s top quarterback, running backs, or receivers. First-string players typically don’t play more than a few possessions outside of the third preseason game, and there hasn’t been much to suggest this won’t again be the case Thursday night.
Ravens beat writers have estimated around 35 players could sit out tonight’s game, while the Bears could be a bit more willing to play some of their starters since they’re installing a brand-new offense. Both teams are scheduled for (a ridiculously unnecessary) five preseason games, so it would behoove head coaches John Harbaugh and Matt Nagy to be even more cautious than usual.
Here’s what we know:
- Ravens: QB Joe Flacco (rest), RB Kenneth Dixon (hamstring), WR Quincy Adeboyejo (leg muscle), TE Mark Andrews (muscle tissue), and TE Darren Waller (suspension) are all highly unlikely to suit up.
- Bears: Chicago is much healthier on the offensive side of the ball, but RB Jordan Howard already said he won’t suit up, and he also suggested hopeful franchise QB Mitch Trubisky will rest as well. The likes of WR Allen Robinson (coming back from a torn ACL) and RB Tarik Cohen (5-foot-6, 180 pounds) probably won’t play more than a few drives, if at all.
Fading both team’s starters is a smart way to both distinguish your lineup and expose yourself to players who will actually get the most snaps.
Quarterbacks and Filling the MVP Slot
Both DraftKings and FanDuel feature a MVP where a player’s fantasy points get a 1.5x multiplier by 1.5x. Two Ravens quarterbacks immediately pop out as potential core plays:
- Lamar Jackson
- Josh Woodrum
It wouldn’t be surprising if Jackson is the highest-owned player on the slate, but it would be for good reason. To reiterate from my betting breakdown:
Jackson’s electric combination of rushing ability and arm strength presents a nearly unsolvable puzzle for defenses, who are forced to account for every last square inch of the field.
2018 Hall of Fame game = The Lamar Jackson show pic.twitter.com/HGgcg3Clq6
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 31, 2018
Woodrum isn’t the same caliber of talent as Jackson, but he’s no stranger to dominating the preseason stage. He completed 25 of 36 passes (69.4% completion rate) for 321 yards (8.9 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns in the 2017 preseason while chipping in 43 yards and another two touchdowns on the ground. He shouldn’t be confused with Jackson as a threat on the ground, but Woodrum did rack up 16 rushing scores in college and seems to have a nose for the end zone.
Robert Griffin III offers similar dual-threat ability, but he appears poised to start and will likely play the fewest snaps among the trio.
Neither of the Bears’ backup quarterbacks, Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray, possess any type of fantasy-friendly dual-threat ability.
Running Backs
Taquan Mizzell ($11,100/$12,200) displayed a fantasy-friendly preseason skill set in 2017, turning in 40-126-0 rushing and 12-90-1 receiving lines in four games while handling at least 12 touches in each game. With Howard and Cohen unlikely to play, Mizzell’s only really competition for early touches is known commodity Benny Cunningham.
Like Mizzell, Gus “The Bus” Edwards ($10,800/$12,000) and Mark Thompson ($11,100/$12,000) figure to benefit from the likely absence of the top three players on their team’s depth chart. Starting tailback Alex Collins is fully expected to rest, Dixon is dealing with the aforementioned hamstring injury, and the team already knows what it has in Javorius Allen.
Wide Receivers
Breshad Perriman finds himself on the roster bubble after posting an underwhelming 43-576-3 line since being selected in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft. The Ravens appear to be moving forward with Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead in three-wide sets, so they could feasibly try to get one last long look at a 6-foot-2, 212-pound freak athlete who runs a 4.3-second 40-yard dash.
Ravens beat writers have indicated Chris Moore is poised to be the No. 4 receiver, making him the perfect preseason dart throw. He found the end zone three times in the 2017 regular season, which is much more than most players in this game can attest to.
Bears rookie slot man Anthony Miller has had an eventful camp, drawing Antonio Brown comparisons and already proclaiming that his Madden rating is too low. Miller could be in for a big night if first-team wideouts A-Rob, Taylor Gabriel, and Kevin White get most of the night off, but it remains to be seen if Miller can translate a productive non-Power Five career to the NFL.
Tight Ends
With Andrews not expected to suit up for Baltimore due to a muscle tissue injury and fellow ‘rookie’ tight end Hayden Hurst also missing time in camp with a similar injury, we could see a lot of Maxx Williams, the team’s second-round pick in 2015, Like Perriman, Williams has struggled to do much of anything in his career. Nick Boyle also figures to get some time, but it’s now or never for Williams to display the skills that helped him score 13 touchdowns in 23 games while attending Minnesota.
Adam Shaheen figures to receive the bulk of the reps for Chicago behind free-agent addition Trey Burton and veteran Dion Sims. The 2017 second-round pick is a poor man’s Rob Gronkowski, as his 6-foot-6 278-pound frame comes with a 77th percentile SPARQ-X score. Per Pro Football Focus, Shaheen ranked sixth among all tight ends with 1.92 yards per route run in 2017 (min. 10 targets).
Defense/Special Teams
It’s tough to get behind either defense considering neither will roll with any of their starters, and both figure to run fairly watered-down schemes that typically don’t lend themselves to bunches of sacks or turnovers. It’s a toss-up.
Kickers!
The Bears and Ravens aren’t currently entangled with kicker battles, so it’s safe to assume Justin Tucker and Cody Parkey are safely entrenched on their respective depth charts. Tucker is widely considered one of the league’s best talents, and Kaare Vedvik, the backup punter for the Ravens, has reportedly received practice reps at kicker throughout training camp. Kickers are usually the only position in the preseason that we can safely expect to play the entire game, but that might not be the case for Tucker, who could also carry elevated ownership considering his sterling reputation. Parkey looks like the safer option.
Strategy
Mizzell seems like the best bet to lead all running backs in touches, but the position as a whole is best approached with caution considering the extreme volatility in Hall of Fame game workloads.
Loading up with four or even five quarterbacks is a good way to expose your lineup to the most certainty this unique game offers.
Pivoting to a wide receiver as your MVP in guaranteed prize pool tournaments also makes some sense, though there’s plenty of opportunity to also differentiate your lineup by stacking Jackson or Woodrum with low-owned wide receivers.
Good luck to everyone playing! Football is back!
Pictured: Lamar Jackson
Photo credit: Tim Heitman – USA TODAY Sports
