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Conference Championship Defenses
This week should be interesting considering we have some of the best offenses in football facing off against each other. Unfortunately, we’re forced to choose a defense in DFS this week, and there aren’t really any good options — just different degrees of bad.
The Rundown
With the high-powered offenses on tap this weekend, all the defenses are very cheap, the most expensive defense on DraftKings is $2,700 while the most expensive defense on FanDuel is $4,600. Additionally, all the defenses are projected for 6.8 points or less, with the two home teams, the Saints are projected for 6.8 and the Chiefs projected for 6.0.
These games are expected to be high scoring, with the lowest implied total sitting at 26.5 points, which doesn’t bode well for choosing a defense. Historically, defenses against teams with an implied team total of 26.0 points or greater have historically averaged a -1.13 Plus/Minus on DraftKings (per our Trends tool).
As usual, I’ll be targeting defenses who can generate pressure. And while the Rams (first), Saints (third), Chiefs (13th) and Patriots (15th) have all been respectable at making quarterbacks uncomfortable, only the Chiefs and Saints have been able to turn those pressures into sacks with the most success.
Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94), LA Rams tight end Tyler Higbee (89).
Overall, the Chiefs lead the league with 3.31 sacks per game, with the Saints checking in at 3.06, which ranks fifth. The Rams can cause chaos up front, and their 2.56 sacks per game ranks 15th, respectively, per Sports Info Solutions.
The Patriots are an easy fade as they’ll be on the road in Kansas City, and they have the lowest pressure rate among all the defenses this week. Further, their 1.88 sacks per game is tied for the second-worst mark in the league with the Giants and trails only the Raiders.
That said, another issue is these teams all excel at protecting their quarterback. All four team’s offensive lines rank inside the top six in adjusted sack rate, while their offenses also rank in the top eight in yards per play and the top seven in scoring rate.
If I’m riding one defense, it’s going to be the Chiefs at Arrowhead because defenses at the Superdome have historically averaged a -1.10 DraftKings Plus/Minus, while defenses at Arrowhead have fared slightly better, averaging a +0.79 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Overall, the Chiefs defense should be in a better game environment in a game expected to be incredibly cold. If the Chiefs can jump out to a lead against the Patriots, that could force them to into a more pass-heavy approach, creating more sack opportunities for their defense. Also, this:
Longest active streaks of games without allowing 30+ points at home
1. Chiefs (34) 👀
…
2. Jaguars (16)
3. Cowboys (12)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 15, 2019
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Pictured above: Daniel Sorenson
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
