NFL Playoff Odds: Divisional Round Lines, Picks for Every Matchup

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs will feature four games across two days this weekend, starting with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs at 4:30 p.m. on Saturday. In the wild-card round, the over hit in five of six games, showing that offense is capable of winning games in the postseason in the modern NFL – pushing back on the common narrative that defense wins championships.

Below, we take a look at each divisional round matchup, and provide insight into what NFL bettors can expect from some of the league’s brightest stars, including Trevor Lawrence, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen.

NFL Playoff Odds – Divisional Round Lines

Saturday, January 21

• Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas Chiefs (-8.5), O/U 52.5 
• New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5), O/U 48 

Sunday, January 22

• Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5), O/U 48 | 3:00 p.m. EST | CBS
• Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), O/U 46 | 6:30 p.m. EST | FOX

NFL Divisional Round Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5), O/U 52.5 

• Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
• TV: NBC

The divisional round will begin on Saturday with a matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Jacksonville finished the regular season 9-8 en route to an AFC South division title. Kansas City finished 14-3, clinching the 1-seed in the conference and a first-round bye in the process.

Jacksonville’s historic win

In the wild-card round, the Jacksonville Jaguars became the first team in NFL history to win a playoff game when committing five or more turnovers than their opponent. After falling behind 27-0 to the Los Angeles Chargers late in the first half, ESPN’s win probability metric gave Jacksonville only a 2 percent chance of winning the game. According to the Associated Press, Trevor Lawrence became the third quarterback in the Super Bowl era to throw four interceptions in the first half of a postseason contest.

In the second-half Lawrence threw four touchdowns without an interception, in addition to engineering a game-winning drive to set up a Riley Patterson 36-yard field as time expired for a 31-30 come-from-behind win.

Potent Chiefs offense

Patrick Mahomes finished the regular season as the league-leader in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and QBR, and is widely expected to win the second MVP award of his career when the honor is announced on February 10. Mahomes led Kansas City to an NFL-best 29.2 points per game and top-ranked offensive EPA this fall. From Week 10 to Week 18, the Chiefs scored 24 points or more in each game, including four games of at least 30 points. Facing a Jacksonville defense that finished the year 20th in defensive dropback EPA, Mahomes and company are likely to continue that streak into the postseason.

Expect fireworks

On Saturday, two of the league’s premier quarterbacks will meet with a trip to the AFC championship game on the line. In the opening round of this year’s postseason, NFL fans witnessed an evolving league, in which high-powered offenses had the upper-hand against talented defenses. There are unlikely to be significant surprises on the injury report later this week, making it safe for bettors to lock-in a wager on the over in this matchup between two elite offenses.

On the futures market, our Chiefs to win Super Bowl (+350) recommendation has already matured to as low as +290 at some sportsbooks. They are the better team in this matchup, and are likely to advance to the next round.

• PICK: Jaguars/Chiefs – Over 52.5

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5), O/U 48

• Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
• TV: FOX

Saturday’s NFL action will conclude with an intra-division affair between the New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles. In the first meeting between these teams in 2022, Philadelphia trounced New York 48-22. In the rematch in Week 18, the Giants rested a number of key starters in a 22-16 loss, surrendering a regular season series-sweep to their NFC East rivals. Following an upset victory over the Minnesota Vikings in the wild-card round, New York undoubtedly has revenge on their mind.

Danny Dimes dazzled in playoff debut

After reviewing the performance of Daniel Jones’ first three seasons in the NFL, head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen collectively decided not to exercise his $22.4 million fifth-year player option for 2023 prior to this season. In his postseason debut, Jones completed 24 of 35 pass attempts for 301 yards, in addition to gaining 78 yards on the ground with his legs. Jones struggled against the Vikings when under pressure, completing only 4 of 9 passes, but was 20 for 26 for two touchdowns when kept clean, per Pro Football Focus. Facing a Philadelphia defense that led the league in sacks per pass attempt during the regular season, protection will be a key area to watch.

Stumbling into 1-seed

Following a 13-1 start to the campaign, Philadelphia lost to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, were upset by the New Orleans Saints in Week 17, and only barely beat an extremely short-handed New York team in Week 18 to clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. From Week 1 to Week 14, Philadelphia ranked 2nd in offensive EPA and 4th in defensive EPA. From Week 15 to the end of the season, the Eagles ranked 19th in offensive EPA and 21st in defensive EPA.

Hurts, Johnson, Maddox banged up

Much of Philadelphia’s late-season offensive regression was tied to the health of Jalen Hurts, who missed multiple games with a right shoulder injury. Another portion of the regression was due to the absence of Lane Johnson, one of the premier right tackles in the league. Defensively, slot receiver Avonte Maddox was sorely missed. Per Jeff McLane, Hurts had his injury designation removed on Tuesday, but Johnson was listed as limited and Maddox was classified as a non-participant in the team’s walkthrough. The health of these three players is worth monitoring throughout the week.

Expect fireworks

Per Brandon Anderson of The Action Network, road underdogs in the divisional round have a 23.9% ROI on the moneyline in the last 19 years. During that time period, 1-seeds have covered the spread only 34% of the time after their bye week. In divisional rematches in which teams are meeting for the third time in the season, road underdogs are 5-1 ATS and 4-2 on the moneyline. Factoring in the Eagles’ questionable health and their sluggish month of December – New York is the strong play here.

• PICK: Giants +7.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5), O/U 48.5

• Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• TV: CBS

On Sunday afternoon, the Cincinnati Bengals will play the Buffalo Bills at HighMark Stadium. In the wild-card round, both teams were favored by greater than a touchdown by kickoff, but the Bengals and Bills each trailed in the second half of their respective matchup. Entering play, Cincinnati has won nine games in a row and Buffalo has won eight games in a row – marking the sixth playoff game ever that both teams will be riding a win streak of eight or longer, per Field Yates.

Burrow under siege

Missing two starting offensive lineman prior to kickoff, the Bengals lost left tackle Jonah Williams to a knee injury midway through their game against the Baltimore Ravens. As a result, Burrow was sacked four times in the victory – the first time since October that Burrow had been sacked more than twice in a game. Per Pro Football Focus, on 42 pass blocking snaps, Cincinnati allowed 10 pressures and five quarterback hurries.

Allen erratic under pressure

Against the Miami Dolphins last weekend, Josh Allen was 17 for 26 on pass attempts from a clean pocket, with zero turnover-worthy-plays on those 27 dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. He was far more volatile when under pressure, committing three turnover-worthy-plays on only 13 pass attempts. In the divisional round, Allen is likely to see less pressure than he did against Miami. During the regular season the Bengals ranked 20th in hurry%, 12th in pressure rate, and 29th in sacks per pass attempt.

Best on best

Despite Cincinnati’s offensive line issues, this is a team that is capable of beating the Bills on Sunday, and keeping alive any Bengals to win AFC (+450) tickets that were made prior to last week. Last year’s version of Cincinnati’s offensive line was far worse than the current version that was tasked with protecting Burrow this weekend, and last year’s team was one drive away from winning the Super Bowl. Two of the league’s most talented quarterbacks will be fighting for a ticket to the AFC championship game this weekend – expect both offenses to play better than they did during the wild-card round, and take the over.

• PICK: Over 48.5 Points

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3), O/U 46

• Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
• TV: FOX

The divisional round will conclude with a battle between the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara. Bettors who placed both a 49ers to win Super Bowl (+500) ticket and a Cowboys to win Super Bowl (+1400) ticket are assured that one of their wagers will advance to the NFL’s version of the final four.

Don’t sleep on Dak

Dak Prescott threw 15 interceptions in only 12 games played during the regular season, prompting many pundits to predict that Dallas would be one-and-done in the playoffs. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Prescott had zero turnover-worthy-plays on 33 dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. He will have a much more difficult task in the next round against a San Francisco defense that allowed the fewest points per game of any team in the league in 2022.

Purdy making a case for a permanent position

Brock Purdy, only shortly acknowledged as Mr. Irrelevant, has thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of his last seven games since taking over for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo in early December. After struggling during the first half against the Seattle Seahawks, Purdy finished with a career-high 332 passing yards and three touchdowns en route to the offense scoring 41 points.

Game of the week

Regardless of the outcome of Saturday’s action between the Giants and Eagles, it is likely that either the Cowboys or 49ers will be heading to Glendale, Arizona in a few weeks for the Super Bowl. From Week 7 to Week 17, Dallas and San Francisco were the only two teams in the league that ranked in the top-six in both offensive EPA and defensive EPA. Bettors should anticipate a hard-fought battle between two well-prepared rosters. If placing a wager on this game early in the week, the under is a smart lean, considering the limitations that both Prescott and Purdy will face against two dominant defenses.

• PICK: Under 46 Points