At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
The NFL playoff picture got no clearer after Week 13. All but three AFC teams remain in the hunt for a coveted postseason berth, albeit some with longer odds than others. There are fewer horses in the race in the NFC. Still, seeding with be a huge factor to consider as teams continue to jostle for positioning down the stretch. With several key divisional matchups in Week 14, we could be in for an entertaining Sunday.
As usual, we’re reconciling usage trends with actual fantasy output to see which superstars are trending up and which are regression candidates as we prepare for next week’s action.
NFL DFS Player Usage Trends
Christian Watson (WR, Green Bay Packers) – Week 13 Snap Count 61/66 (92.4%)
The Green Bay Packers’ struggles are well documented, and their woes are primarily attributed to limited success in the passing game. The team has failed to surround Aaron Rodgers with capable wide receivers, leaving their offense one-dimensional and lacking big-time playmakers. However, rookie wideout Christian Watson has emerged as Rodgers’ preferred target, and we continue to see solid fantasy outings from the North Dakota state product.
Watson played a season-high 61 snaps in Week 13, representing 92.4% of the Packers’ offensive plays. More importantly, Green Bay is incorporating its star pupil more frequently into the passing game. Watson was on the field for 33 passing plays against the Chicago Bears, another career-best, and has been targeted at least six times over the past four weeks.
His work inside the red zone is the x-factor that shifts Watson’s fantasy value onto the elite end of the spectrum. The 23-year-old has seven touchdowns over his last four outings, scoring in all four games. The trust he’s built with Rodgers is evident week after week, with Watson continuing to be the first option for Rodgers inside the 20.
The Packers are deploying Watson more frequently, and Rodgers prioritizes getting him the ball deep in enemy territory. Both are good indicators of ongoing success from the Packers’ touchdown leader.
A.J. Brown (WR, Philadelphia Eagles) – Week 13 Snap Count 60/73 (82.5%)
Like a pimple on Taylor Swift’s nose, the only blemish on the Philadelphia Eagles’ resume is an unexpected loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 10. Jalen Hurts has the NFL leaders moving down the field with ease, relying on his talented supporting cast to get yards in big chunks. Among those weapons is A.J. Brown, who showed up in a revenge game against his former squad.
Hurts threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday’s win over the Tennessee Titans, with Brown leading the way in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. However, his usage remains below DeVonta Smith‘s, and it may be worth targeting Smith moving forward.
Brown played 82.5% of the snaps in Week 13, below Smith’s 86.3%. In fact, Smith has been on the field for more plays than Brown in all but one contest this season. Further, Hurts has been looking Smith’s way more frequently over the past four weeks, with Smith earning a 28.3% target share compared to Brown’s 22.5%.
Having multiple elite wide receivers is a good problem to have, but it makes it difficult to assess which player is most likely to excel on any given Sunday. Brown led the way against the Titans, but the underlying metrics suggest that Smith should steal some of Brown’s thunder moving forward.
AJ Dillon (RB, Green Bay Packers) – Week 13 Snap Count 45/66 (68.2%)
A shin injury limited Aaron Jones ahead of Green Bay’s Week 13 contest against the Bears, precipitating Jones going on and off the field on Sunday. Consequently, Chicago saw a heavy dose of AJ Dillon, with the bruising running back going for a season-best 93 rushing yards.
Jones has outplayed Dillon throughout most of the season, out-pacing him in carries, targets, and yards from scrimmage. However, Dillon has been the more effective back recently. Jones has averaged fewer than 3.6 yards per carry in three straight, while Dillon is averaging 5.0 yards per carry or better in three of his past four. Further, Dillon served the pass-catching role against the Bears, hauling in all three targets thrown his way for 26 yards, fulfilling one of the areas in which Jones is typically prioritized.
The lower leg injury may be impacting Jones’ effectiveness, swinging the pendulum in Dillon’s favor. Lately, Green Bay has fed Dillon the ball in goal-to-go scenarios, illustrating their increased trust in their former second-round pick.
The Packers are on a bye in Week 14, affording Jones additional time to resolve the shin injury. But even when Jones is back to 100%, Dillon may have earned a more significant work share in the Packers’ offense.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Understanding Ceiling Projections for NFL DFS Tournaments
NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Chargers vs. Chiefs
Steelers-Browns Same Game Parlay: NFL Player Prop Picks, Over/Under, More, Using Parlay IQ for Thursday Night Football
Week 4 NFL DFS Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
