We have a nice Saturday double-header in Week 18 to cap off the NFL season.
Our first matchup pits the Chiefs with a chance to help their chances at getting home-field advantage in the playoffs, and the Raiders would like to play spoiler. Our second game between the Jaguars and Titans is a win and in matchup in the AFC South. If New England, Miami, and Pittsburgh all lose on Sunday, then both Jacksonville and Tennessee would make the postseason.
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You can also head straight to their prop lobby to pick your favorite player props or leverage our Player Props Tool from Sean Koerner and our analytics team to identify where the biggest edges are.
NFL Player Prop Picks for Week 18
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
Marquez Valdes-Scantling wasn’t able to capitalize on his opportunities last week, which has been a story for most of the season. He saw seven targets, only catching two balls for 28 yards. MVS is no stranger to seeing volume in Kansas City, as he has eight games of five or more targets and four games of four targets.
He does his damage deep down the field, so he isn’t reliant on a lot of volume to exceed his total. He has an average depth of target of 14.7 yards and commands 24% of the team’s air yards.
The Raiders have struggled to defend the deep ball all season long, and MVS had one of his best games of the season against Las Vegas in Week 5. He saw eight targets, hauling in six balls for 90 yards.
Our Prop Tool has him projected right around the number, but with him getting more opportunities on the field in a plus matchup, we like him to go over his total.
Mack Hollins Under 35.5 Receiving Yards
Mack Hollins’ role has taken a little bit of a backseat with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow back in the lineup. He’s seen four and two targets in the past two games, catching three balls for 40 yards and one ball for seven yards. He’s been a fairly low usage guy all season long, with a 17% target share and seeing a target on 15% of his routes run.
Jarrett Stidham was more willing to chuck the ball downfield than Derek Carr, which may be a little scary when trying to fade a receiver that runs a route on practically every dropback. However, with Adams, Waller, and Renfrow all back, Hollins simply takes a backseat.
Hollins also airballed back in Week 5 when these teams played, catching none of his four targets.
Our Prop Tool has him projected at about 30 yards, showing some value in the under.
Trevor Lawrence Under 265.5 Passing Yards
If you read my article for Saturday’s DFS preview, you saw me praise Trevor Lawrence in this matchup with Tennessee’s pass-funnel defense. All of those points still stand. Tennessee has gotten shredded by opposing quarterbacks and is facing the most pass attempts in the league.
However, Lawrence’s prop total is simply too high. Lawrence did shred this defense the last time these teams played, throwing for 368 yards and three scores. Tennessee got to rest a bunch of players last week to remain fresh for this matchup, and we saw them shut down Justin Herbert the week after they got shredded by Lawrence.
Lawrence has gone under this number in 10 of 16 games on the year, and we’re expecting Tennessee to play slower and grind the clock down. This game has a low total of just 38.5 points, which will likely mean the fireworks will be at a minimum.
Our Prop Tool has this number 248.5 yards, showing a lot of value in the under.
Chigoziem Okonkwo Under 25.5 Receiving Yards
I don’t want to sound too excited, and I’m certainly prepared for this to come back and bite me in the you-know-what. This line feels like an absolute steal.
If you look at Chigoziem Okonkwo’s game logs, you’ll likely be confused. He exceeded this yardage total in every game from Week 9-15, yet I’m excited to take him under here. Yes, yes, I am.
In Weeks 9-11, Okonkwo caught only one pass in each game, going for 48, 41, and 31 yards in order to exceed his total. He then was set to benefit from Treylon Burks being out of the lineup as his route numbers increased. He ran a route on 50% and 59% of dropbacks in the last two games that Burks missed. Once Burks returned to the lineup in Week 16, Okonkwo ran a route on 41% of dropbacks and just 19% of dropbacks last week with Josh Dobbs under center.
Dobbs will be under center again this week, and Okonkwo’s role appears to be diminishing. After just 16 total snaps last week, it’s hard to get too excited about his role.
We have Okonkwo projected at 15.8 receiving yards, showing a ton of value in the under.
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