The Ravens travel to Tampa Bay tonight to battle the Buccaneers. Despite these teams sitting at 4-3 and 3-4, they couldn’t be more opposite. Baltimore held sizeable leads in all three of their losses and could’ve won all three games that they’ve dropped. Tampa Bay’s season has been confusing. They started the year looking like their usual selves but have lost four of their last five.
They dropped a tough game at home to Green Bay before losing to Kansas City in a game where the final score doesn’t reflect how close the game was. Kansas City led by multiple scores for most of the second half before a late touchdown made the final score more respectable. After narrowly beating Atlanta, they’ve lost their last two against Pittsburgh and Carolina, who are a combined 4-10 on the year.
Will Tampa Bay right the ship, or will Baltimore continue their dominance, despite their middling record? The player props sit at 20-12 on the year, so hopefully, we can keep moving in the right direction!
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Ravens-Buccaneers NFL Player Props
Tom Brady Under 281.5 Passing Yards
Tampa Bay has dealt with a plethora of injuries on offense. Numerous offensive linemen are out, and Russell Gage and Cameron Brate are already ruled out for tonight’s matchup. All the injuries have taken a toll on Brady and the offense.
Brady has still been able to put up some solid yardage numbers, with three of his last four games coming in above 290. However, Brady has only surpassed this yardage total three times in seven games, and with how this matchup is shaping up, we expect him to go under again.
Baltimore is more attackable on the ground than the air, ranking eighth in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA but 23rd in rush defense DVOA. All of the injuries have caused Brady to change his game a little, as he’s getting rid of the ball in only 2.43 seconds this year. His average intended air yards dropped from 8.0 last year to 7.4 this year.
The Bucs’ should also look to preserve Brady’s arm, as he’s thrown 52, 52, 40, and 49 times in the past four weeks. A more run-heavy game plan may be coming, as Todd Bowles hinted about wanting to get Rashaad White more involved. This may be more to give Leonard Fournette some rest after the veteran has carried a heavy workload to start the year. However, if they’re factoring in rest for the 27-year-old running back, surely the condition of their 45-year-old quarterback is being considered.
Is Father Time finally winning? Probably not. Anytime you doubt Brady, it usually goes poorly. However, when we see value, we have to take advantage. Sean Koerner’s Pro Model has this number at 266.5, showing a lot of value on Brady’s under.
Rashod Bateman Under 47.5 Receiving Yards
With Marquise Brown leaving the town, the plan for Baltimore was for Rashod Bateman to step into the No. 1 wide receiver role and flourish in this offense. That hasn’t necessarily been the case so far. Bateman had a good start to the year, catching two touchdowns in the first two weeks and topping 100 yards in Week 2. He then totaled 76 yards on five catches in Weeks 3 and 4 before missing Weeks 5 and 6 due to injury.
Bateman is listed as questionable with a foot injury but is expected to play. He was somewhat effective in his return from injury last week, catching four balls for 42 yards. He now gets a difficult matchup against Tampa Bay, as they are the 6th-ranked defense in pass defense DVOA. The Bucs’ are banged up in the secondary, as they’re missing Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Antoine Winfield, but it’s still a tough spot.
However, Lamar Jackson may not look Bateman’s way that much tonight. Bucs’ head coach Todd Bowles loves to dial up the blitz, and that’s when Jackson hones in on Mark Andrews. Jackson targets Andrews 38% of the time when blitzed compared to only 28% when not blitzed.
Baltimore also doesn’t air the ball out that much, with Jackson attempting between 29-32 passes in Weeks 1-6 and merely 16 last week. If Andrews is going to soak up nearly 40% of those attempts, there is a limited amount for the rest of the pass-catchers.
In a difficult matchup, we like Bateman to go under his yardage total. Our Prop Tool has this number at 38.9, showing a lot of value on the under.
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