Saturday and Sunday gave us some exciting games, from Jacksonville’s 27-0 comeback, to Miami almost pulling off a major upset to Sam Hubbard returning a fumble 98-yards for a touchdown to practically steal the game from Baltimore.
Monday Night will give us a ratings bonanza as Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys travel to Tampa Bay to do battle with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Can Prescott silence the haters and help Dallas advance to the Divisional Round? Could this be Brady’s last game as a Buccaneer? Is Brady going to defeat Father Time yet again? I don’t have the answer to these questions, but it should be incredibly fun to find out.
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You can also head straight to their prop lobby to pick your favorite player props or leverage our Player Props Tool from Sean Koerner and our analytics team to identify where the biggest edges are.
NFL Player Prop Picks for the Wild Card Round
Tom Brady Over 42.5 Passing Attempts
It’s interesting to see this at such a low number, considering how often Tampa Bay passes the ball and how often Brady has exceeded this total all season long.
Brady has exceeded this number in 11 of 17 games, but we’re not putting too much stock into last week’s game when Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask took over the reins late in the second quarter. Brady missed this number in the first three games of the season, so he’s surpassed 42.5 attempts in eleven of his last thirteen full games played.
Tampa Bay also passes the ball at the highest rate of any team in the league on early downs. The Bucs have struggled to run the ball all year, so they will look to Brady to chuck it to either build a lead or come back if they fall behind.
Our Prop Tool projects this number at 43.5, but considering the context, expect Brady to go over it.
Cade Otton Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
Cade Otton quietly took over the Tampa Bay tight end room towards the end of the season. Cameron Brate was dealing with injuries, but even when he returned, it was Otton who was utilized.
In Week 16, Otton ran a route on 84% of dropbacks compared to just 10% for Brate. Then in Week 17, with Tampa Bay needing a win against Carolina, Brate was inactive and Otton ran a route on 85% of their dropbacks. In last week’s meaningless game, Otton was rested, running a route on 24% of dropbacks, while Brate had a 62% route participation. It’s clear that Otton is the top guy here.
We know he’ll be out there, and we know Brady is going to chuck it. We have Otton projected at about 30 yards, showing a lot of value in his over.
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