We’ve had some exciting Thursday night matchups to kick off the 2022 season. The Buffalo Bills came out guns-blazing against the defending-champion Rams, and the Chiefs barely edged out a hard-fought matchup with the Chargers. We could take a step back in the excitement department with this division matchup between the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Both teams are looking to bounce back from losses to AFC East opponents. The Browns squandered away a 13-point lead after the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter to the Jets (ouch). The Steelers fell to New England in a hard-fought showdown and are looking to avoid dropping two in a row.
With Gabe Davis not playing last week against the Titans, the player props went 2-1 on the Monday Night slate and are now up to 10-1 on the year. The undefeated streak is over, but that doesn’t mean we can’t keep rattling off the wins! Keep reading to find out who we’re looking at on Thursday night!
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NFL Player Props: Steelers-Browns
Najee Harris Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
It’s been a rough start to the 2022 campaign for Najee Harris. He’s totaled just 72 rushing yards on 25 carries, with some lingering injuries and a rough offensive line in front of him. So we’re taking his under, right? Nope! We think Harris will get over his total on Thursday and post a solid performance for Pittsburgh.
Harris demolished the Browns in both matchups last year, going for 91 yards on the ground in October and then 188 yards in Week 17. The Browns have given up the fifth-least rushing yards to opposing running backs at 114 on the year. However, they’ve seen a league-low 27 carries, giving up a fairly hefty 4.22 yards per carry. To make matters worse for Cleveland, Jadeveon Clowney, one of the anchors in their run defense, will miss this week’s matchup with an ankle injury.
Harris went over 54.5 rushing yards in 10 of 17 regular season games last year, with most of his misses coming in big losses where Pittsburgh had to abandon the run. Cleveland only sits as four-point favorites in this one, and they don’t appear to have the offense to blow anyone out right about now. With Mitch Trubisky struggling at quarterback for Pittsburgh, it’s likely that the Steelers aim to pound the rock and minimize Trubisky’s chances of giving the game away.
Our consensus projections from Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner put Harris’ number at 60 rushing yards, with one of them having him all the way up at 65.
In this hard-fought early-season matchup between two bitter rivals, look for some old-school football from the Steelers and for them to feed Najee Harris.
Donovan Peoples-Jones Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Donovan Peoples-Jones (DPJ) had two polar opposite games to start off the 2022 season. He was a focal point of the offense in Week 1, seeing 11 targets, and hauling in six catches for 60 yards. Fast forward to Week 2, where DPJ had, *checks notes* zero catches on one target. Despite the completely different box scores, there wasn’t much that changed for DPJ.
He played on 83% of the snaps in Week 1 and then on 78% in Week 2. DPJ was out there on 84.4% of team dropbacks this past week, and the ball just simply didn’t go his way. He’s the WR2 on this team, playing a near-every-down role across from Amari Cooper. David Bell and Anthony Schwartz work in, combining for 57% and 48% of snaps over the first two weeks. There’s no one to worry about taking playing time from DPJ, he’s going to be out there.
DPJ combined for 18 yards over the first two weeks of 2021 and then proceeded to exceed 29.5 receiving yards in eight of his final 11 games of the year. He saw less than five targets twice over his final 11 games also. This past week against the Jets was an outlier, not the norm.
He also operates as the Browns’ main deep threat, so even if he does see limited volume, DPJ could eclipse his yardage total in one play.
Our consensus projections put his yardage number at 32.2, showing some value on his over. Look for DPJ to bounce back from his goose egg and rack up some yards on Thursday night.
