It’s sad that the NFL season is quickly coming to a close, but championship weekend is providing us with two exciting star-studded matchups. The day kicks off with San Francisco traveling to Philadelphia, as the Eagles are looking to defend home turf and the 49ers are trying to get back to the Super Bowl for the second time in four years.
Following the NFC matchup, we get to see Joe Burrow and the Bengals travel to Arrowhead (Burrowhead?) to face Kansas City for the fourth time in the past two seasons. The Bengals have beaten Kansas City three times in a row. Can they make it a fourth?
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NFL Player Prop Picks for the Conference Championship
Miles Sanders Over 51.5 Rushing Yards
Miles Sanders was used to maintaining the lead and keep the chains moving last week, as he ran for an efficient 90 yards on 17 carries. The matchup is difficult this week, with San Francisco allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry to opposing backfields. Philadelphia has an impressive offensive line, and Sanders will likely see a solid chunk of volume.
He’s carried the ball double-digit times in all but one game this season and is averaging 15.33 carries per game. Despite the tough matchup, as long as Philadelphia doesn’t fall behind and is forced to abandon the run, Sanders will have the volume he needs.
Our Prop Tool projects him at 59 rushing yards, showing some value in the over.
Joe Mixon Under 22.5 Receiving Yards
Joe Mixon has been leaned on in the running game for Cincinnati, but he’s slowly taken on less of a role in the passing game. He only ran a route on ten dropbacks in the Wild Card Round and then on 14 dropbacks last week. He saw four and two targets, going for 17 and 18 yards.
Samaje Perine has stepped up in the passing game, running a route on 20 and 18 dropbacks the past two weeks. The Bengals feel more comfortable with Perine out there for pass-blocking and for receiving. He’s eclipsed this number in ten of sixteen games on the year, but his role in the passing game is far less than it was earlier in the season.
Our Prop Tool has Mixon projected at 18.7 receiving yards, showing some value in the under.
Samaje Perine Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
For similar reasons as to why we like Joe Mixon’s receiving under, we like Samaje Perine to exceed his total. He saw five targets last week, catching five balls for 31 yards. His role increase has been nice, but even with slightly less usage in the passing game earlier in the season, he still exceeded this number in seven games. He caught six balls for 49 yards when these teams last met, but Mixon was sidelined for that contest so it’s hard to put too much weight into it.
Our Prop Tool has Perine projected right at 16 receiving yards, but with his role increasing, we like him to go over.
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