The Chargers travel to Indianapolis to cap off Week 16 as they look to secure a playoff spot. The Chargers couldn’t keep pace with Kansas City in the AFC West as many had hoped, but a win on Monday Night would lock them into a Wild Card spot. The Colts have officially been eliminated from playoff contention and are turning the reigns over from Matt Ryan to Nick Foles, with Jeff Saturday as their head coach. Just imagine if I told you that would be the case before the season.
Saturday has gotten his team to fight hard despite being in the midst of a lost season, so we should expect a good game on Monday Night. The Chargers struggle to move the ball methodically, and the Colts limit big plays extremely well. The Colts also boast a stout defensive line, and the Chargers simply don’t want to run the ball. There’s a lot of pressure on Justin Herbert, so let’s see if he can come through.
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Chargers-Colts NFL Player Prop Picks
Michael Pittman Jr. Under 62.5 Receiving Yards
Michael Pittman is definitely the top dog in this Indianapolis passing game, with a 25% target share on the year while being targeted on 22% of his routes run.
However, the quality of his targets has been poor, as he has a mere 6.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT) on the season. That means that to rack up a lot of yards, Pittman needs double-digit catches. He’s gotten that opportunity infrequently this season, with double-digit catches in just two games and double-digit targets in four.
Despite commanding plenty of targets, he’s only exceeded this yardage total four times all year and just once since Week 6. The quarterback change to Foles may change how Pittman is used, but that remains to be seen. We’ll bank on what we’ve seen so far, and that’s Pittman running short routes and likely needing ten or more catches to beat us.
Our Prop Tool has him projected at 56.4 yards, showing a lot of value in this under.
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Zack Moss Under 71.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
This high yardage total feels like an overreaction to Zack Moss‘ usage last week. Jonathan Taylor exited the game due to injury, and Moss handled 24 carries in a game where the Colts led 33-0. Moss benefitted from a perfect game script and racked up 81 yards on those 24 carries.
We’re not 100% sold on Moss being the bell cow in Indianapolis. Deon Jackson handled 13 carries last game and is more proficient as a pass catcher. In Moss’ first four games in Indianapolis, he played on less than 7% of the snaps in all four. We’ve seen the Colts go to Jackson over Moss recently, as he played on 20% of the snaps in two games with Moss on the team.
Our Prop Tool has both backs projected for around ten carries, which indicates far more of a split than some might expect. The matchup is definitely easy, but Moss isn’t some amazing runner, and we’re not expecting him to have the volume necessary to eclipse his total.
Our Prop Tool has Moss projected for 48 rushing yards and 6.6 receiving yards, giving us a nice cushion of value in Moss’ under.
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