Week 5’s Thursday Night Football showdown between the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts looked far better on paper before the season kicked off. Neither team has lived up to expectations to this point. Denver brought in Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett to change their fortunes, but they sit at 2-2 and have scored 66 total points through four games.
The Colts sit at 1-2-1, having lost twice outright as favorites and tying Houston in Week 1. They pulled off an impressive victory over Kansas City in Week 3, but that’s about it. They’ve also struggled on offense, with 57 total points through four games.
Both of these struggling offenses have sustained injuries, as Javonte Williams is now out for the season, and Jonathan Taylor is missing this matchup to an ankle sprain.
After a 1-1 performance on Monday Night, the player props currently sit at 13-6 on the year. Let’s string together some more victories!
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Colts-Broncos NFL Player Props
Melvin Gordon Under 60.5 Rushing Yards
With Williams now out for the seeason, Denver will need to find some new life out of the backfield. Melvin Gordon has already received a solid amount of work, but he will likely take on a larger role moving forward. However, there are some question marks around Gordon to be wary of.
Gordon has already lost two fumbles on the year, and his latest one was very costly in last week’s divisional matchup against the Raiders. Denver was driving late in the first half before Gordon fumbled, and Las Vegas scooped it up and ran for a touchdown. Gordon had just three touches post-fumble despite Williams sustaining his injury early in the second half. He split drives with Mike Boone, who nearly out-snapped Gordon on the game 2:1.
Denver also just signed Latavius Murray off of New Orleans’ practice squad, who just had a solid performance in London for the Saints. That’s a potential reflection on their lack of confidence in Gordon. With Gordon currently in the doghouse, it’s unlikely he will take full command of this backfield right away. He’ll likely be the lead-back, but we don’t suspect anything more significant than his existing workload.
Gordon hasn’t gone over this rushing yardage total once all year, despite facing some lowly defenses in Houston and Seattle. Obviously, Williams was active for those games, but we’re expecting a similar amount of rush attempts for Gordon as usual. Gordon has only one carry of 10+ yards on his 37 attempts this year. He’s also matching up with a stout Indianapolis defense, whose average of 3.1 yards per carry allowed ranks third in the league.
Only two opposing backs have eclipsed 60 rushing yards on the year against Indy. James Robinson had 64 rushing yards on 24 carries, and Gordon likely won’t come close to 24 carries. Derrick Henry was the other, rushing for 114 yards on 22 carries last week. Gordon is no Derrick Henry, and once again, we’re projecting him for a similar number of carries as usual, in the 12-15 range.
Our Prop Tool has this number projected at 49 yards, with Chris Raybon projecting him all the way down at 45. With these low projections, we see a lot of value on Gordon’s under.
Matt Ryan Under 235.5 Passing + Rushing Yards
The Matt Ryan era in Indianapolis has been underwhelming at best, as he’s thrown as many touchdowns and interceptions, and the Colts’ have limped to a 1-2-1 start.
Ryan has gone under his yardage total in two of four games, with game script and matchup heavily impacting Ryan’s usage. He threw for 352 yards in a Week 1 tie against a weak Texans defense. The Colts were down 20-3 heading into the fourth quarter, where they were forced to abandon the run. Ryan threw for 188 of his 352 total yards in the fourth quarter and overtime in a game where the Colts were forced to pass. As underdogs of around a field goal, we’re not expecting a game script as extreme as Week 1.
Ryan also threw 356 yards last week against the Titans, which is an impressive total. However, Tennessee has given up the fourth most passing yards in the league, as they are not the same impressive defense of years past. Ryan gets a far different matchup this week, as the Broncos rank third in yards per attempt allowed at 5.9 and yards per completion at 9.5.
Denver has stymied opposing quarterbacks to start the year, giving up less than 200 passing yards to Geno Smith, Davis Mills, and Derek Carr. Jimmy Garoppolo is the only guy to eclipse 200 yards against Denver so far, throwing for 211. Jonathan Taylor‘s injury negatively correlates with Ryan’s under, as the Colts would be more likely to lean on the run with Taylor in. However, Denver is still far more beatable on the ground, and Frank Reich will look to attack the right matchup.
Our Prop Tool has this number around 220, showing solid value in the under.
Alec Pierce Under 34.5 Receiving Yards
Rookie second-round pick Alec Pierce has started to string together some performances, with 141 yards on seven catches over his past two games. However, we’re looking to fade the youngster on Thursday Night.
Pierce hasn’t been on the field that much but has been targeted extensively in the last two games. He ran a route on 47% and 40% of Matt Ryan dropbacks the past two games, but he’s seen a 25% and 35% target per route run rate.
He’s also been used primarily as a deep threat, with an average depth of target of 14.6 yards, averaging 20.1 yards per catch. Pierce was able to get loose the past two weeks against some lackluster defenses in Tennessee and Kansas City, each ranking in the top six in receiving yards allowed on the year.
Pierce now faces Denver and their talented secondary, who have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards on the year. That makes him a solid regression target. Pierce shouldn’t be nearly as efficient against such a tough defense, so he’s a strong under candidate barring an increase in routes.
Our Prop Tool has this number at 22.4, with Chris Raybon’s model having him at 20.1. In a game where we’re bearish on Indy’s passing prospects, locking in this under seems like a wise decision.
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