Scoring has been at a premium this year, with touchdown numbers around the league way down. Only four teams averaged less than 18.0 points per game last season, but that number currently sits at nine in 2022. A bunch of offenses we anticipated having success are struggling, with the Buccaneers, Rams, Colts, and Broncos all seated under the 18.0 point per game threshold. The Bears are also in this group, but that was expected — sorry, Bears fans!
Chicago travels to New England to take on the Patriots in this Monday Night showdown. New England is currently favored by over a touchdown, with the total for the game down at 40.5. Vegas is expecting a low-scoring, lopsided Patriots victory. Thrive canceled all contests for last week’s game, but the player props went 1-1, bringing the record to 19-11 on the season.
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Broncos-Chargers NFL Player Props
Mac Jones Under 214.5 Passing Yards
Mac Jones returns from injury to command this Patriots offense against the Bears on Monday Night. We last saw Jones about one month ago, when he hurt his ankle at the end of a double-digit loss to the Ravens. He wasn’t lighting the world on fire before his injury, throwing two touchdowns to five interceptions while the Patriots got out to a 1-2 start.
New England deployed a very run-heavy game plan with Jones out of the lineup, and we’re expecting that to continue tonight. Damien Harris is returning, so New England will have their 1-2 punch back to full health. We don’t know how close to 100% Jones will be on that ankle, so it’s likely New England wants to keep the ball on the ground.
The matchup may also lead the Patriots to lean on their backfield more, as the Bears are 26th in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA but are 14th against the pass. New England is currently favored by more than a touchdown, so we’re expecting a positive game script without much need for Jones’ arm.
Jones went under 214.5 passing yards in one of three games he played in, with the Baltimore game creating a very negative game script and a couple of big plays buoying his total against Pittsburgh. Bailey Zappe went under this total in two of his three games, and despite them being different players, we don’t expect the offense to change that much.
Chicago has given up more than 214.5 yards through the air in three of five games, with Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins being two of the three quarterbacks to eclipse the number. No disrespect to Jones, but he isn’t on that level.
Our Prop Tool has this close to the number at 213.5, but we still believe in the under.
David Montgomery Under 50.5 Rushing Yards
For years, we’ve heard about Bill Belichick taking away the strength of the opposing offense. Well, tonight, we’re buying into that narrative. David Montgomery is the strength of this Bears’ offense and the leader in their running game. That means Belichick should load the box and force the Bears to beat them through the air.
Justin Fields has struggled this year, ranking 33rd of 34 in EPA per play + Completion Percentage over Expectation composite. New England has thrived in pass defense but has struggled against the run. They rank 6th in pass defense DVOA but 26th against the run. New England has talented corners, and Belichick can trust them on the outside. When combined with an unintimidating passing game on the Bears’ side, New England can stack the box to nullify Chicago’s strength without much to worry about.
Montgomery has gone over this in two of his four healthy games. Chicago head coach Matt Eberflus also hinted at Chicago potentially moving more towards a committee approach moving forward, which would be a big boost to this bet.
However, even if Montgomery takes his usual workload, we think New England will be able to shut him down. New England deployed similar strategies against Cleveland and Detroit, holding Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and Jamaal Williams under their rushing yardage totals.
Our Prop Tool has this at 49.0, so we still like the under.
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