Just like in Week 18, Wild Card Weekend gives us a Saturday double-header that is jam-packed with player props to take advantage of. The Seahawks travel to the bay to kick off the postseason, as they’ll play their third game of the year against their division rival, the San Francisco 49ers.
To cap off the night we have a dual of two up-and-coming quarterbacks playing in their first-ever postseason games. Justin Herbert and the Chargers travel to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars. Hopefully, this Saturday’s games give us more fireworks than last Saturday’s.
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NFL Player Prop Picks for the Wild Card Round
Geno Smith Under 225.5 Passing Yards
This number has dipped a little bit, but we still like Geno Smith’s under at 225.5 passing yards. The 49ers have given Smith trouble this season, as he’s averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt and 4.6 air yards per attempt against this defense in two matchups. In comparison, he’s averaging 8.0 air yards per attempt against all other opponents.
Smith also benefits a lot from play action, but Seattle may not be able to lean on play action this weekend. They’re 10-point underdogs, so they could be forced to just drop back and sling it. Obviously, this will lead to more pass attempts, but we’re not expecting Smith to be efficient.
San Francisco does a great job controlling the ball and clock, and we’re expecting them to lean on their ground game and get a win in the bad weather against their division rival. Our prop tool projects this number at 218.5 yards, showing some solid value on the under.
Brandon Aiyuk Under 48.5 Receiving Yards
Our prop tool projects Brandon Aiyuk fairly close to his total, with him coming in at 43.3 yards. However, considering the weather conditions and the changes in San Francisco’s offense, we like his under.
Deebo Samuel returning to the lineup hurts Aiyuk’s outlook. He’s averaged 1.73 yards per route run with Samuel on the field, compared to 2.3 yards without.
He also gets the most difficult matchup, as he plays the majority of his snaps on the outside, where Seattle has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per target to opposing boundary receivers.
Last but not least, the rain should have an effect on him, as he has a fairly deep average depth of target at 10.3 yards, which is the highest of the 49ers’ core receivers. In poor conditions, Brock Purdy will likely look more underneath to the likes of McCaffrey, Samuel, and George Kittle as opposed to Aiyuk.
Justin Herbert Under 290.5 Passing Yards
Justin Herbert gets a good matchup against a pass-funnel defense, but this number is simply too high. Herbert has exceeded this number in seven of 17 games on the year and is now slated to be without one of his top weapons, as he has for most of the season.
Mike Williams is going to miss this matchup, and although the Chargers’ other pass-catchers are more than capable of producing, it definitely dings his outlook. Herbert is averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt on the year, so he’s reliant on a lot of volume to reach these high yardage totals. He may see a lot of volume in this pass-funnel matchup, so that is worrisome.
Jacksonville will likely lean on the run as the Chargers have struggled against opposing RBs all season long. This will keep the clock moving, limiting the amount of time for Herbert to reach the volume necessary to throw for this total. With Los Angeles favored, there’s also a strong chance they have a positive game script and look to salt the game away with Austin Ekeler.
Our prop tool has this number at 277.5 yards, showing some solid value in the under.
Austin Ekeler Over 55.5 Rushing Yards
Speaking of Austin Ekeler, we’re expecting him to take on a large workload this weekend. With it being the postseason, we’re expecting Los Angeles to ramp up his workload and lean on him as opposed to giving carries to Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree.
Ekeler hasn’t exceeded this number much this year, going over just six times on the season. However, we saw his number of carries heavily fluctuate from game to game as they tried to keep him fresh. With this being the playoffs, they’ll lean on their top back.
The Chargers are also likely to see a favorable game script, so Ekeler could be leaned on to rack up yards and bleed the clock to salt this game away.
Our prop tool has this number right at 56 yards, but considering the circumstances, we like his over.
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