Thursday Night gives us a big division matchup between two rivals as the Bills travel to New England to take on the Patriots. The Bills are trying to stay in the race with Miami for the AFC East, as well as the race for the AFC’s top seed. New England is currently a few games back in the division, and they’re just trying to rack up the wins to stay in the Wild Card race.
New England got the best of Buffalo in a weather-impacted game early last season, while Buffalo won rather handily in the second matchup and Wild Card matchup. Both teams just played last Thursday, so there is no significant rest advantage to report here.
The props have recently hit a cold streak, with Pat Freiermuth and Michael Pittman Jr. narrowly missing their props on Monday night. At 28-25, let’s try to get two wins on the board tonight.
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Bills-Patriots NFL Player Prop Picks
Josh Allen Under 266.5 Passing Yards
Fading Josh Allen is always a scary proposition, but this under has a lot of value. The matchup is difficult, as New England is ranked 3rd in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. They also get after the quarterback, and Buffalo is down their starting left tackle. Their backup, David Quessenberry, struggled last week after entering the game.
Allen has gone under this yardage total in four of his last five games and hasn’t looked the same since injuring his elbow a few weeks back. The Bills have tried to run the ball more with Allen banged up, and New England plays a lot of man coverage, which will encourage Allen to use his legs.
We also expect New England to play slow while they have the ball, leaning on the run and trying to keep Allen and the Bills off the field. This line implies that Allen and the Bills will play like they were to start the year, which hasn’t been the case recently. Our Prop Tool has this number at 251, showing a lot of value in the under.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
We’re going right back to Rhamondre Stevenson, but we’re hoping for a different result this time. Stevenson carried the ball a season-low seven times last week, still running efficiently for 36 yards. Damien Harris has been ruled out for this matchup, so we know Stevenson will take the lion’s share of the rushing work.
Stevenson carried the ball 19 times against Cleveland when Harris missed earlier in the year and 15 times against Indianapolis. J.J. Taylor was involved when New England played Indianapolis, but with that game out of hand, New England was fine giving Taylor a hefty amount of work. In an important division matchup, they’ll likely lean on their best back.
The Patriots are slightly banged up on the offensive line, but they want to play a bully-ball style of offense. Jamaal Williams is a far less explosive back, and he was able to carry the ball 18 times for 66 yards against Buffalo last week. Stevenson has the explosiveness to rip off a couple of big runs to reach this total.
Our Prop Tool has this number at 71, so this is another excellent prop to target.
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