Week 17 finishes with a matchup between two heavyweights in the AFC playoff race. The Buffalo Bills travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals as these teams jockey for playoff seeding, with both having eyes on the number one overall seed. This game certainly has significant implications for the parties involved, and the rest of the AFC playoff hopefuls will be watching closely.
Buffalo controls their own destiny in the AFC, as two wins in the final two weeks will lock up the one seed and force opponents to come to Buffalo in the postseason. A win for Cincinnati would seal up the AFC North, and they’d leapfrog Buffalo and become the second seed. If they were to win next week and Kansas City drops their game to Las Vegas, then Cincinnati would become the one seed.
Needless to say, we should be in store for a good one. The props have started trending in the right direction, as another 2-0 night on Thursday Night has us at 37-32 on the year. It’s a big Monday Night game, so we have some extra props today. Let’s finish strong!
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Bills vs. Bengals Player Prop Picks
Joe Burrow Under 283.5 Passing Yards
Joe Burrow has been slinging it all season long, but this yardage prop is just too high. Burrow has exceeded this number in just six of fifteen games this year. Throwing for nearly 300 yards is hard for any quarterback, especially against this Buffalo defense.
The Bills are seventh in pass defense DVOA and have the 11th-highest pressure rate, despite blitzing at the 10th-lowest rate in the league. Buffalo can still get after the quarterback while keeping more than enough guys back in coverage. That may be the perfect recipe against a shaky offensive line like Cincinnati’s.
The Bengals’ offensive line has struggled this year, and they just lost right tackle La’el Collins for the year. Collins has been having a rough season, but regardless, he’s a better option than backup Hakeem Adenijii.
Buffalo also allows the fifth-lowest rate of explosive passes, so the Burrow will have to rely on quick passes to methodically move the ball down the field. Burrow has playmakers like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins — who can rip off big plays — but they’ll be matched up against a solid secondary. Buffalo ranks just 26th against opposing WR1s, but these numbers are a bit skewed, as Tre’Davious White just returned from injury a few weeks ago and has been playing very well.
The matchup is difficult, and this style of defense doesn’t bode well for the long, explosive plays that would kill this bet. Our Prop Tool has this number projected at 275.5 yards, showing some value in the under.
In a regulated betting state? Check out this prop on FanDuel.
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Ja’Marr Chase Under 82.5 Receiving Yards
It’s always scary betting against a guy like Chase, but if we’re a fan of Joe Burrow’s under, it makes sense that we’d be against his top option. Chase has exceeded this number in five of eleven games on the year.
We already touched on expecting Burrow to be under duress and being forced to embrace the short passes. Buffalo is an excellent tackling defense, which should limit Chase from turning short passes into big gains.
If Buffalo chooses to shadow Chase with White, it’ll be a long day for Chase. If Buffalo opts just to leave White on one side of the field, then Chase will still have a difficult matchup on a good chunk of his snaps.
Betting against Chase and Burrow may make Monday Night’s game less enjoyable, but winning money should cure all. Our Prop Tool has Chase at about 76 receiving yards, showing some value on the under.
In a regulated betting state? Check out this prop on FanDuel.
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Josh Allen Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Allen tends to tuck the ball and run when the lights come on in big games. When Buffalo needs to win against tough opponents, they lean on Allen and implement more designed runs in their offense.
Allen’s splits when playing against playoff opponents and non-playoff opponents are apparent. He averaged 5.7 rushes for 38 yards in 11 games against non-playoff teams last year while averaging 9.5 rushes for 59 yards against eight playoff opponents. The numbers are similar this year, averaging 5.8 rushes for 36 yards against presumed non-playoff teams and 9.3 rushes for 60 yards against likely playoff opponents.
In a game on the road with their eyes on the one seed, this will undoubtedly have a playoff-like feel. The Bengals also rank in the bottom five in the league against designed QB runs, and their top two pass rushers are banged up.
Our Prop Tool has this number at 47 rushing yards, but considering the circumstances, I like the over.
In a regulated betting state? Check out this prop on FanDuel.
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Bonus: Bet both Josh Allen and Joe Burrow Over 0.5 Passing Yards
Thrive is doing a promo on the app today and has Josh Allen and Joe Burrow listed at 0.5 passing yards (as well as their actual totals). I think it’s pretty safe to assume that both quarterbacks will go over these numbers.
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