The NFL season kicks off with a highly anticipated matchup where the Buffalo Bills travel across the country to Los Angeles to try and knock off the defending champion Rams. The Bills are favored by under a field goal, and the total of the contest sits at 52.5. We should expect a high-scoring, close affair between two Super Bowl contenders. Some of the league’s biggest names will be on center stage, such as Josh Allen, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, and many others.
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NFL Player Props: Bills-Rams
Josh Allen Over 36.5 Rushing Yards
Fantasy football’s two-time reigning QB1 saunters into the ring on Thursday night, looking to provide some fireworks to kick off the new year. The last time we saw Josh Allen, he was reigning fire upon the Kansas City Chiefs defense. Allen gave the Bills the lead with 13 seconds to play before never seeing the ball again. We’re not here to dwell on the past, but we are here to learn from it. We are expecting the Bills to again utilize Josh Allen’s legs as a weapon, just as they did last year.
With Allen’s rushing yard prop sitting at 36.5, we are confidently taking the over. Allen exceeded that total on the ground in 13 of 19 total games last year, good for 68.4%. Looking deeper into last year’s sample size, the case for Allen’s over only improves. With the current spread of Thursday night’s contest sitting at under a field goal, we can expect a close contest.
In the Bills’ nine games last year, which ended within two possessions, Allen went over 36.5 rushing yards in eight of them, averaging 66.9 rushing yards per game on an average of 10.3 carries per game. His full-year averages were 7.3 carries per game for 47.2 yards, showing that Allen is more willing to tuck it and run in closer games.
The close game we expect will give Allen more than enough opportunities to exceed his total, but even a lopsided contest isn’t the end of the world. In the Bills’ 10 games this past year with a three-plus score difference, Allen went over 36.5 rushing yards in five of them and finished with 35 in another.
Cooper Kupp Over 89.5 Receiving Yards
With Tre’Davious White still nursing an ACL injury, the Buffalo Bills’ secondary looks exploitable. Their defense is leaning on rookies Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford to man the perimeter, while former seventh-round pick Dane Jackson will also need to be a major contributor. Who better than to pick on a weak secondary than the man who wreaked havoc upon every secondary he faced last year?
Cooper Kupp exceeded 100 yards like clockwork last year, reaching triple figures in 13 of 21 total games. Even better, we don’t even need 100 yards out of him! With Kupp’s prop sitting at 89.5, he exceeded this number in 19 of the Rams’ 21 games this past year. Kupp averaged 12.26 targets per game this past year, and we don’t see any reason for Stafford to stop peppering his No. 1 guy.
The Bills definitely don’t have the horses in the secondary to contain Kupp with White sidelined. If the Bills look to double-cover Kupp, head coach Sean McVay will have no problem moving Kupp all over the formation.
Even if Buffalo is somehow able to keep Kupp’s target number down, he may still very well eclipse 89.5 yards. In the four games last year in which Kupp was held to single-digit targets, he surpassed this yardage total in three of the four, with the lone miss coming in the Rams’ Wild Card round blowout of the Cardinals.
Stefon Diggs Over 69.5 Receiving Yards
With Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders leaving town, and Jamison Crowder struggling in training camp, it appears that Stefon Diggs will see all of the volume he can handle to start the season. Isaiah McKenzie also sustained a knee injury late in camp (though he did practice in full on Wednesday), which could point to Diggs receiving a lot of work.
Jalen Ramsey is one of the premier cornerbacks in the league, but he hasn’t shadowed opposing receivers under DC Raheem Morris. This should give Buffalo free reign to get the ball into Diggs’ hands as much as they want. The Rams siphoned production to opposing receivers last season, giving up the league’s third-most catches and fourth-most yards to wideouts.
Diggs was able to top 69.5 receiving yards in only eight of 19 games this past year, which on the surface, appears to make this seem like a bad bet. However, in the 11 games in which Diggs did not reach this yardage total, he was above 60 yards in five of them, showing that he was likely a catch or two short of missing the mark.
Diggs also had a dropoff in catch percentage last year, as he dropped to a 62.8% catch rate from his 76.5% rate in 2020. In Diggs’ 2020 breakout, he eclipsed 69.5 yards in 15 of 19 games. He saw similar target numbers (164 in 2021 vs. 166 in 2020) yet had a near 14% drop in catch rate.
Diggs may not regress all the way back to his 2020 catch rate numbers, but he should see some positive regression. With the Rams giving up big production to opposing receivers and Diggs’ target competition looking slim, we love his chances of going over 69.5 receiving yards on Thursday night!
