NFL Player Props: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb Picks for Bengals-Browns on Monday Night Football

Are you ready for the largest Thursday Night Football spread of all time? Well, you’re getting it. The Eagles travel to Houston to do battle with the Texans, while the Houston Astros travel to Philadelphia to play the Phillies. Crazy, I know.

The Eagles have been one of the more surpsiing teams in the league, wearing the crown as the last undefeated team standing. The Texans’ have been quite dissapointing, as they are one of two teams that only have one win. Can Houston keep it close? Maybe? Who knows. We’re all sickos and we’re going to watch, so let’s nail down some props to root for.

After a 1-1 night on Monday, the props sit at 22-14 on the year. Hopefully we can go 2-0 to get to ten games above .500!

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Eagles-Texans NFL Player Props

A.J. Brown Over 60.5 Receiving Yards

As you’ll see from our second prop, we’re not expecting the Eagles to absolutely light the world on fire through the air tonight. However, this line is simply incorrect. Brown is coming off of a monster performance last week, catching six balls for 156 yards and three touchdowns.

He’s gone over this receiving total in six of seven games this year, and has been the focal point of the Eagles’ passing game. Brown is seeing 30% of team targets, 48% of the team air yards, while running a route on 90% of dropbacks. The reason to be worried about this prop is Philadelphia’s lack of need to pass the ball tonight. Houston is giving up just 16.1 targets per game to opposing receivers, as most teams are just running up and down the field on them.

However, Houston is giving up 9.1 yards per target, and 14.7 yards per catch to opposing wideouts, both ranking bottom five in the league. The Texans give up big plays, and despite the Eagles likely not throwing the ball that much, they like to throw to Brown when they do pass.

Our Prop Tool has this number at 68, with Chris Raybon’s Model putting Brown all the way up at 71.4. Lock in this over!

Jalen Hurts Under 233.5 Passing Yards

This prop definitely doesn’t correlate with A.J. Brown’s over, but it shows a ton of value. The Texans have been a dumpster fire on defense this year, especially on the ground. They’ve given up an average of 186 rushing yards per game, which is 30 more than the next team.

The matchup is exploitable, and the Eagles already love to lean on the run. They have the sixth-lowest pass rate in the league, despite having Hurts and a bunch of weapons. Their pass rate is so low likely due to the fact that they constantly have big leads. That may be the case again tonight.

Philadelphia is favored by two touchdowns in this game, and we know the Eagles are more than happy with just leaning on the run when they’re winning. Hurts has averaged merely 73 passing yards in the second half this season. With Houston’s offense likely in for a long night, there’s a chance the Eagles build a large enough lead that Hurts ends up sitting towards the end of the game.

Hurts has only gone under this number twice this year, but both of those have come in the last four games. He also barely eclipsed this total in two other games, going for 239 a few weeks ago against Arizona, and 243 in Week 1 against Detroit.

Sean Koerner’s Pro Model puts this number at 225.5, showing a lot of value on the under.