The Dolphins travel into the jungle to face the Bengals in a matchup between two AFC playoff hopefuls. It’s been all sunshine and rainbows for Miami, getting out to a 3-0 start on the back of two big victories over Baltimore and Buffalo. It’s been a different story for Cincinnati, stumbling to 0-2 out of the gate before pouncing on a “get-right” spot against the Jets.
The Bengals are currently favored by 3.5 points, with the total sitting at a solid 48.5. It’s been three straight games of 1-1 for the player props, as they sit at 12-3 on the year. Let’s see if we can rattle off a 2-0 night!
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Dolphins-Bengals NFL Player Props
Joe Mixon Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
The tides finally turned for Joe Mixon towards the end of 2021. He used to be a two-down plodder who ceded pass-down work to other backs. Things changed last season, with Mixon logging three or more targets in each of the Bengals’ final six games. His passing game usage trickled into 2022, where he’s seen 20 targets and 103 receiving yards through the first three weeks.
Mixon has surpassed 21.5 receiving yards in two of three games this year, missing last week with merely 14 yards against the Jets. He only caught three of seven targets last week, good for only a 42.85% catch rate. Mixon had an 86.96% catch rate in 2021, which is high, but even normal regression wouldn’t knock him all the way down to 42.85%. Catch rates are usually higher for running backs, as they receive more dump-offs than downfield passes.
With Mixon’s role as a receiver, this number is too low. Dating back to last season, in games where Mixon saw three or more targets, he exceeded this number in 11 of 14 contests. The style of defense that Miami will likely play will suit Mixon.
Joe Burrow has shredded Cover 0 & Cover 1 since the start of last season. He’s thrown for 10.0 yards per attempt, and his average time to throw is 2.49 seconds. Miami has played in Cover 0 the most in the league since 2021, and they’re top-three in Cover 1 rate as well. This seems like good news for Mixon, but it isn’t. Those style defenses would allow Burrow to locate receivers in one-on-one matchups. So, where is the good news?
The Dolphins went away from their Cover 1 and Cover 0 in the second half against Buffalo last week, opting for more two-high safety looks. The two-high attempts to take away deep passes downfield, leading to more underneath passes. The Cowboys and Steelers also opted to play two-high, which gave them success and allowed Mixon to hit his over. Miami will likely opt for a two-high look tonight as they did last week, which bodes well for Mixon. Even if they don’t, Mixon should be able to eclipse 21.5 yards on volume alone.
Our Prop Tool has this number closer to 24.5, showing plenty of value on the over.
Joe Burrow Under 275.5 Passing Yards
On the surface, this pick would negatively correlate with Mixon’s over. That said, I believe a good day from Mixon through the air will equate to a bad day for Burrow overall.
We just talked about the type of coverage that Miami should run, a cover-two shell that allows underneath passes to guys like Mixon. The Steelers and Cowboys deployed these defenses against Burrow, and he struggled. He threw for 199 yards against Dallas but reached 338 yards against Pittsburgh. The inflated yardage total is due to an excessive number of attempts, as Burrow attempted 53 passes against the Steelers, good for the second-most in his career.
The Miami defense was on the field for 90 plays against Buffalo on Sunday, and they are likely gassed. The Dolphins know this and will look to control the ball on offense and use the clock as an asset. Miami has enough playmakers to move the ball, and they’ll be able to move the chains and keep the ball in their possession.
Since the start of 2021, Burrow has gone under this yardage total in 13 of 22 games. Our Prop Tool has Burrow’s number at 263.5, with Chris Raybon’s Model having Burrow all the way down at 258.5 passing yards.
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