The Rams travel to San Francisco in a rematch of last week’s NFC Championship game, in which the Rams came out triumphant in a 20-17 victory. The 49ers’ have been gashed by injuries on the offensive side, with Trey Lance, Eli Mitchell, Tyrion Davis-Price, and Trent Williams all out due to injury.
The Rams have gotten out to a 2-1 start but haven’t necessarily looked like their dominant self. This rivalry has been exciting the past few seasons, although Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ have had the edge, with Shanahan being 7-3 in the regular season against his buddy Sean McVay and the Rams.
The player props had a rough go on Thursday Night, falling to 0-2 on Joe Burrow’s late 30-yard pass to Ja’Marr Chase. Despite a cold streak, the props are still 12-5 on the year, and we’re looking to get back in the win column!
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Rams-49ers NFL Player Props
Jeff Wilson Jr. Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
Jeff Wilson Jr. has stepped up for this 49ers’ offense, becoming the leader of the run game after Lance and Mitchell went down with injuries. He’s run for 75+ yards in both games since stepping in as the lead back. Wilson went under his yardage total in Week 1 but only handled 24.32% of the team carries, with Lance and Mitchell combining for 51.35%.
Wilson handled 66.7% of the backfield carries in Week 3, after only 47.37% in Week 2. His role has increased, and Kyle Shanahan knows he can trust Wilson in the backfield. Wilson also exceeded this yardage total in three of four games as the lead back in 2021.
Trent Williams being out is problematic for San Francisco, but we’re bullish on this run game as a whole. Volume should trump all for Wilson, and he’s capable of breaking off some long runs that could help as well. He broke loose for a 37-yard scamper last week against Denver.
Los Angeles has been stout against opposing backfields to start the year, surrendering only 3.65 yards per carry over their first three games. However, we’re not buying them as this shutdown run defense. They’ve faced off against the Bills, Falcons, and Cardinals, with none of the three boasting a daunting rushing attack.
Our Prop Tool has this number at 61 rushing yards, showing a lot of value in the over. Sean Koerner’s Pro Model has this number at 62, giving us even more confidence in it.
Tyler Higbee Under 41.5 Receiving Yards
The Rams leaned on Tyler Higbee over the first two weeks of the year, as he racked up 20 targets. However, Higbee saw merely four targets last week, which was his lowest of the season and far closer to his usage in 2021. Last year, he saw five or fewer targets in half of the Rams’ games.
Higbee has gone under this receiving total in one of three games this year. He went over in matchups against Atlanta and Arizona, who have been porous on defense. He missed in Week 1 against Buffalo, who has been one of the best units in the league.
Higbee now gets to go against the 49ers, who have shut down opposing tight ends to start the year. They’ve allowed a league-low 2.3 yards per target to opposing tight ends. San Francisco has athletic linebackers and safeties who can cover a lot of ground and keep someone like Higbee in check.
Higbee went under this yardage total in 10 of 18 games last season, including two of three matchups against San Francisco. He totaled 93 yards on 11 catches across the three games.
This Rams’ offense is also different from last year’s juggernaut. They currently rank 29th in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play on early downs, which tends to be predictive of future success. They also rank 30th in EPA per dropback. Their offensive line is not the unit that it was last year, and San Francisco’s defensive line will likely be in the backfield all night.
Our Prop Tool has this number at 37.3, showing some value in Higbee’s under.
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