For the first time in a while, it feels like we’re actually going to get some good games on Thanksgiving! The Lions aren’t an absolute trainwreck for the first time…well…ever, and the rest of the slate is filled with teams with serious playoff aspirations. The Bills travel to Detroit for the second week in a row as they prepare for a potential shootout to kick off the slate.
It’s a tight race atop the NFC East, as the loser of the Cowboys and Giants game may be out of the race to catch Philadelphia atop the division. Regardless, a win for either team is huge for their playoff hopes. To finish off the slate, we have the New England Patriots traveling to Minnesota to battle the Vikings. Minnesota just got trampled by Dallas on their home turf and is looking to rebound on the short week.
I don’t know about you, but I love nothing more than sitting down on the couch, tuning out the nonsensical conversations, and watching some football on Turkey Day. Now, we get some player props to sweat while we do it! After a 1-1 night on Monday, the props are at 28-20 on the season.
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You can head straight to their prop lobby to pick your favorite player props or leverage our Player Props Tool from Sean Koerner and our analytics team to identify where the biggest edges are.
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Bills-Lions NFL Player Props
Devin Singletary Under 58.5 Rushing Yards
Devin Singletary is coming off one of his best games of the season, where he carried the ball 18 times for 86 yards and a touchdown. It was a season-high in carries and yards for him. It was a weird travel week for the Bills, and now they have to play a game just four days later. Could Buffalo scale back on Singletary’s workload?
James Cook has started to earn more of a role in the backfield, and he played very well last week. He led the NFL in rushing yards over expectation last week, as he carried the ball 11 times for 86 yards. Singletary still has the lead role in the backfield, as he’s averaging about 50-60% of the team rush attempts each week. With Singletary coming off a big workload on a short week and Cook running well behind him, they could ease off of Singletary this week.
Singletary hasn’t been the most efficient runner, averaging 4.4 yards per carry on the year. He’s gone under this total in seven of 10 games on the year and has needed 14, 17, and 18 carries to go over this total in his three other games. The Lions defense has been dismantled as a whole, but they’ve turned it around as of late. They bottled up Saquon Barkley for only 22 yards on 15 carries last week. Obviously, their game plan was likely built around stopping Barkley, which will most likely not be the case with Singletary this week.
Regardless, this number is a tad high for Singletary, and our Prop Tool agrees, projecting him for 53 rushing yards.
Giants-Cowboys NFL Player Props
Dalton Schultz Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
Dalton Schultz has had an up-and-down year for the Cowboys, being relied on in certain games and catching zero balls in a few others. He’s gone over this total in just four of eight games this year, which makes the line feel appropriate. However, Schultz is a completely different player depending on who is playing quarterback.
Schultz has played five games with Dak Prescott this year, exceeding this yardage total in four of five and averaging 6.8 targets for 52.2 yards per game. These numbers are pulled down by last week’s performance, where Schultz caught only three balls for 22 yards. Down games happen, but over the larger sample size, he produces with Prescott.
The matchup is exploitable for Schultz, as the Giants are giving up 8.4 yards per target and a 73.3% catch rate to tight ends, which are both the sixth-worst marks in the league. Schultz is second on the team in target share at 21.5% and target rate per route run at 26.9%, with Prescott at quarterback.
Our Prop Tool has this projected at 37 yards, so it’s right on the number. However, with Schultz’s role and rapport with Prescott, we’re confident in his over.
Patriots-Vikings NFL Player Props
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
Rhamondre Stevenson was swallowed up in a tough matchup with the Jets last week, carrying the ball 15 times for 26 yards. Even with Damien Harris back from injury, Stevenson now seems to be the lead man in the backfield. He’s handled over 50% of the team’s rush attempts the past three weeks and has seen 7, 7, and 6 targets.
He runs into another fairly difficult matchup this week, as the Vikings are giving up merely 3.73 yards per carry on the season. They do rank in the middle of the pack in carries that result in a first down or touchdown, showing that they’re susceptible to some explosiveness.
Stevenson is capable of ripping off big runs, but even if he doesn’t, he should see enough volume to get over his total. He’s gone over this total in six of ten games this year, including six of eight in which he’s received double-digit carries. The Patriots like to give Stevenson the ball roughly 15 times on the ground if everything goes according to plan, and in a tight game with scoring expected to be at a premium, New England should be able to feed their back.
Our Prop Tool shows a lot of value on this number, projecting him up at 65 yards. Sean Koerner’s Pro Model is even more optimistic, with him all the way up at 68 yards.
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