The Titans travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills to kick off our Monday Night double-header in what should be an exciting matchup. Buffalo is favored by a whopping 10 points over Tennessee, but the Titans have gotten the best of the Bills the last two times these teams played. The Titans won a thriller last October 34-31 and trounced the Bills 42-16 despite dealing with a bevy of COVID issues in 2020.
Will the Bills’ offense continue to be white-hot, or will King Henry run rampant over this Bills’ defense? Any extra football is a treat, so get ready to root for some player props on Monday Night. The player props currently sit at 8-0 heading into Monday Night, so let’s hope the run-good continues!
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NFL Player Props: Titans-Bills
Devin Singletary Under 44.5 Rushing Yards
There’s nothing like an under to get you excited to watch Monday Night Football! Buffalo leaned on Singletary last season, giving him double-digit carries in 12 of 19 games including playoffs. Singletary put up 45+ rushing yards in 8 of 19 games last season while falling just short at 43 and 44 in two others. That said, Buffalo’s backfield was constantly changing regarding snap counts and touches.
Singletary handled eight of 15 backfield carries for the Bills last week, with Zack Moss taking six and James Cook fumbling on his lone carry. Singletary also paced the other two in snaps, appearing on 59%, compared to 37% and 5% for Moss and Cook respectively. Singletary was efficient with his eight carries, running for 48 yards.
So why the lean to Singletary’s under? Well, regardless of whether his role changes or not, Singletary still has a solid shot at coming in under his 44.5-yard total. However, most teams that take running backs in the second round tend to use them. Enter Cook. Cook was banished last week after his fumble, but with another week under his belt, Cook may have a chance to handle more of a workload.
We saw other running backs around the league fall on their face in Week 1 and rebound with a more prominent role in Week 2. Cam Akers only saw 12 total snaps in the season opener, including three total touches. Fast forward to Week 2, and he and Darrell Henderson Jr. nearly split the snaps 50/50, with Akers handling 17 touches to Henderson’s 10. We could see a similar situation for Cook, as teams rarely spend premium draft capital on guys they don’t want to use.
Our Model projects this right around the number, but with the potential role shift in the backfield coupled with the existing time-share, we like Singletary to come in under his yardage total.
Gabriel Davis Over 48.5 receiving yards.
Davis led all Buffalo receivers in snaps in Week 1, appearing on 98% of the plays. He’s currently questionable for this matchup with an ankle injury, but it is doubtful that Buffalo would trot him out there if he isn’t close to 100%. It’s early in the season, and risking the health of one of your most important offensive players doesn’t seem wise for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. If Davis is to miss, then any bet would be voided, so there’s no risk of losing money if he sits. He can re-injure his ankle in the game, but I’m willing to roll the dice on that not happening.
Davis saw five targets in Week 1 against Los Angeles, hauling in five catches for 88 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo uses Davis all over the field, and his deep threat ability gives him the chance of getting to his yardage total on one play. If Davis does suit up for this matchup, his yardage number will likely climb pre-kickoff. Davis has already displayed a rapport with Allen, so if Davis is healthy, Allen will look his way.
From Week 14 on last season — when Davis started to appear on 70% of the snaps — he eclipsed 48.5 receiving yards in only two of six games, with the other totals coming in at 43, 40, 39, and 41 yards. However, Davis also had to compete with Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders for targets, who are no longer with the team.
Our models have this number closer to the mid-50s if he can suit up, so this is an excellent buy-low opportunity.
