NFL Player Props: Deebo Samuel, James Conner Picks for 49ers-Cardinals on Monday Night Football

The 49ers and Cardinals travel to Estadio Azteca in Mexico City for a divisional Monday Night Football matchup. The Cardinals are getting close to “win or go home” position, as they sit at 4-6 in a crowded NFC. A win here would put them right back in the division race.

San Francisco is trying to keep pace with Seattle in the division. Seattle leading the west is undoubtedly the surprise of the season, but we’ll save this talk for their Thursday Night matchup with the 49ers in Week 15.

Colt McCoy is expected to draw the start for Arizona, as Kyler Murray is still nursing a hamstring injury. McCoy has proven to be a capable backup, as he defeated the Rams last week and went 2-1 last year as a starter, including a win over this same 49ers team. Can McCoy make some more underdog magic and keep Arizona’s playoff hopes alive, or will San Francisco move into first place in the NFC West?

After my beloved Packers laid an egg on Thursday Night against the Titans, the player props now sit at 27-19. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine got the job done for us, while AJ Dillon mustered merely 13 yards on six carries.

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49ers-Cardinals NFL Player Props

Deebo Samuel Under 52.5 Receiving Yards

Deebo Samuel is very explosive with the ball in his hands, so it’s always scary to take one of his unders. However, since Christian McCaffrey joined the 49ers, Samuel’s role has shifted. He saw a target on 26% of his routes before McCaffrey arrived, and that number has dropped to 15% since.

Samuel has also gone under his yardage total in both games he’s played with McCaffrey, and he even went under this number in half of his games before McCaffrey’s arrival. Even if Samuel sees closer to his early-season target numbers, he could still potentially go under.

The matchup is also tricky for Samuel, as the Cardinals rank in the top 10 in DVOA against No. 1 and 2 wide receivers. San Francisco already likes to keep the ball on the ground, and a difficult matchup on the outside will lead to Garoppolo’s targets funneling to McCaffrey and George Kittle.

Our Prop Tool has this number at 46, with Chris Raybon’s Pro Model projecting him all the way down at 41.

James Conner Under 49.5 Rushing Yards

James Conner is coming off his best game of the season, carrying the ball 21 times for 69 yards and two touchdowns. It’s been an injury-riddled season for Conner, so it’s nice to see him back on the field. His performance was likely due to the positive game script, as the Rams’ offense practically fell on their face without Matthew Stafford.

We know Kliff Kingsbury will adjust his game plan to the opposing defense, as he did last week. The Rams have the fifth-ranked run defense, and Kingsbury came out throwing it on the game’s first 11 plays with McCoy. The 49ers rank third in rush defense DVOA and have athletic linebackers who can fly around and swallow up opposing backs.

The Cardinals could stick with their aerial attack, and Conner isn’t a very explosive back. He’ll require volume to reach his yardage total against this stellar 49ers’ defense. Arizona is a 10-point underdog tonight, so it’s unlikely that we’ll see a similar game script to last week, where Conner saw plenty of carries to close the game. Conner has gone under this yardage total in four of seven games this season and three of four losses.

Our Prop Tool has this number at 45, with Chris Raybon projecting Conner at 40. Lock in this under!