The Las Vegas Raiders travel to Kansas City for an important division matchup against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are looking to improve to 4-1 on the year, while the Raiders are trying to avoid a 1-4 start, which would make the playoffs a borderline pipe dream.
Week 5’s Thursday Night game was lackluster, as it seemed like a nightmare that would never end. The player props went 1-2 on Thursday Night, as Matt Ryan’s under was lost due to the overtime period. The props sit at 14-8 on the year, and hopefully, Monday will give us two more winners.
With Daily Fantasy Sports increasing in popularity, different platforms are designing new and innovative ways for users to get in on the action. Enter Thrive Fantasy, a new way to enjoy DFS that blends large peer-to-peer GPP tournaments with the excitement of player props.
You can head straight to their prop lobby to pick your favorite player props or leverage our Player Props Tool from Sean Koerner and our analytics team to identify where the biggest edges are.
You can read more about Thrive Fantasy and get a $250 bonus when you sign up.
Raiders-Chiefs NFL Player Props
Jerick McKinnon Under 25.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Clyde Edwards-Helaire continues to be the lead back in this Chiefs’ offense, but it appears the tides are turning behind him. Jerick McKinnon had played on 39% or more of the snaps and gotten at least four carries in each of the first three weeks, but Week 4 showed a potential change in the backfield hierarchy.
Edwards-Helaire still saw his usual workload, but Isiah Pacheco appeared to take on a more prominent role. He played on 21% of the snaps in Week 4, handling 31% of the team’s rush attempts and running a route on 11% of dropbacks. McKinnon was up between 40% and 50% in all three categories in Week 3, but he dipped to just 23% of snaps, 6% of the rush attempts, and a 25% route participation in Week 4.
On top of Pacheco seeing more work, Edwards-Helaire also took on a slightly larger role. He set season highs in snaps (56%), team rush attempts (53%), and routes run (50%). McKinnon has always been more of a passing-game back, so it’s possible that his lack of work was due to last week’s positive game script against Tampa Bay. However, we may see a similar script tonight, as the Chiefs are favored by a full touchdown.
Even if McKinnon’s role returns to normal, he still has a good chance of missing his total. McKinnon went under this number in three of the first four weeks. Our Prop Tool also shows some value in this number, with it projected closer to 21.5 yards.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
Speaking of Edwards-Helaire, he’s coming off his least productive performance as a receiver of the year. He saw two targets, catching one ball for a two-yard touchdown. Before last week, Edwards-Helaire had gotten at least three targets and 32 receiving yards in all three games.
Despite last week’s down performance, it was the most involved he was running routes. Edwards-Helaire had between 34% and 38% route participation in Weeks 1-3 before running a route on 50% of Patrick Mahomes‘ dropbacks last week. Edwards-Helaire also dropped a pass from Mahomes on fourth down, where he easily could’ve run for 20+ yards.
The matchup is also exploitable for him through the air, as the Raiders rank 28th in DVOA against opposing RBs in the passing game. Other running backs have easily eclipsed this number against Las Vegas as well, such as Austin Ekeler (36), James Conner (26), Eno Benjamin (20), Derrick Henry (58), and Dontrell Hilliard (30).
Our Prop Tool has this line projected at 20.5 yards, with Sean Koerner’s Model putting this number at 23.3.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Understanding Ceiling Projections for NFL DFS Tournaments
NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Chargers vs. Chiefs
Steelers-Browns Same Game Parlay: NFL Player Prop Picks, Over/Under, More, Using Parlay IQ for Thursday Night Football
Week 4 NFL DFS Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
