This Monday Night Football showdown looked way better a couple of months ago. The Rams are the defending Super Bowl Champions, and the Packers are coming off back-to-back seasons of getting the one seed in the NFC. Surely this late-season matchup would provide fireworks.
Sadly, the combined records of these two teams are 9-17. The Rams have been ravaged by injuries and never really seemed to get going. Green Bay lost several close games and has sputtered on both sides of the ball at inconvenient times. Green Bay still has some playoff hope if they can win out. The Rams are technically still alive also, but they’d need to run the table and get a hefty amount of help from other teams.
After a 2-0 night on Thursday, the props are now at 32-29 on the year. Let’s keep moving in the right direction!
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Rams-Packers NFL Player Prop Picks
Cam Akers Under 53.5 Rushing Yards
Cam Akers has been an inefficient runner lately, carrying the ball 29 times for 102 yards in his past two games for just 3.5 yards per carry. These have come in fairly easy matchups against Seattle and Las Vegas, so his poor numbers are even more unimpressive.
He gets another soft matchup this week, as the Packers rank dead last in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA. That said, there’s no reason to think Akers will improve tonight. The Rams leaned on the run very heavily last week, but that may change now that Baker Mayfield has a little bit of experience under his belt.
The game script also sets up poorly for Akers, as the Rams are 7.5-point road underdogs in Green Bay. Green Bay likes to take their time on offense, too, playing at the slowest pace in the league. This could lead to a minimal number of plays available for Los Angeles.
Akers doesn’t have the burst to rip off long runs, with his longest run of the season being 15 yards. He also is unlikely to have enough volume to chip away at this number, which makes it a very appealing under.
Our Prop Tool has this number at 51.5, showing some value in the under.
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Christian Watson Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
Since Week 10, Christian Watson has become an every-down receiver that the Packers lean on. He’s run a route on 87.25% of dropbacks since Week 10, leading the team with a 24.3% target share and 45.8% air yards share while being targeted on 25.2% of his routes.
Romeo Doubs is returning for the Packers tonight, but it’s highly unlikely that Green Bay will put Watson back on the sidelines. They just waived Sammy Watkins, which should keep Watson in line to run a route on practically every dropback.
The matchup is also great, as the Rams allow the sixth-most receptions to opposing receivers while allowing a modest 8.2 yards per target. Watson’s targets have also been deep down the field, with an average depth of target of 14.6 yards. He likely won’t need many looks to exceed this number, which he’s done in each of the past four games.
Our Player Prop tool has this at 50.7, showing some solid value in the over. Look for Watson to continue his stellar rookie campaign!
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