Both Tampa Bay and New Orleans have gotten off to rough starts this season. They have a combined record of 9-14 and would both surely be trending toward missing the postseason if it wasn’t for their horrendous division. It doesn’t appear anyone from the NFC South will take a wildcard spot, but someone has to win the division. New Orleans and Carolina both sit at 4-8, with Atlanta at 5-8 and Tampa Bay at 5-6. Essentially, it’s anyone’s game.
These teams will each try to rebound from losses last week and get back in the win column. A win for Tampa Bay tonight would essentially eliminate New Orleans from the division race. The Saints would be two games back in the win column and three games back in the loss column, with Tampa Bay holding the tiebreaker. If New Orleans can pull off the victory tonight, the NFC South will be intriguing to watch over the final five weeks of the season.
Rhamondre Stevenson once again narrowly missed his prop, but Josh Allen was able to safely go under last Thursday Night. The Player Props now sit at 29-26 on the year, and two wins tonight would go a long way for the record!
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Saints-Buccaneers NFL Player Prop Picks
Chris Godwin Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
Chris Godwin seems to be fully recovered from the ACL injury that slowed him coming into the year. He has at least six receptions in each of his last six games and double-digit targets in five of six. Tom Brady has started leaning on Godwin heavily again, with stat lines of 6/71/1 and 12/110/1 in the past two weeks.
Godwin has eclipsed this total in four of his last six games and seems to get an advantageous matchup tonight. New Orleans has given up some solid production to interior wideouts, allowing 8.4 yards per target to opposing slot receivers. Marshon Lattimore is currently questionable, but if he is able to suit up, he’ll surely shadow Mike Evans. Evans has bested Lattimore before, but the difficult coverage will likely lead Brady to look Godwin’s way.
We know that the slot receiver in a Tom Brady-led offense can rack up receptions and yards, and that’s what we’re expecting Godwin to do tonight. His median projection on our Prop Tool is right around the number, but we feel strongly about his over tonight.
In a regulated betting state? Check out this prop on FanDuel.
Alvin Kamara Under 82.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Fading a guy as talented as Kamara is scary, but this line is simply too high. Kamara’s efficiency has plummeted lately. He’s averaging 3.2 yards per carry since Week 8, which ranks 25th out of 26 running backs with 50+ carries in that stretch. He’s totaled merely 62, 45, 89, and 50 yards in the past four games.
His usage has also tailed off as of late, which is somewhat scary. His snap share (88%, 79%, 70%, 67%), rushing share (60%, 57%, 48%, 38%), and route participation (75%, 76%, 69%, 62%) have all trended in the wrong direction over the past four games.
The matchup is also very difficult for Kamara. In his past four games against Tampa Bay in the regular season, he’s carried the ball 51 times for 135 yards and has 15 catches for 88 yards. The Bucs defense isn’t as stout as years past, ranking just 14th in DVOA. They have been great the past two weeks, allowing just 148 yards on 41 carries to two good offenses in Cleveland and Seattle.
Kamara’s role is trending in the wrong direction, and he gets a pretty tough matchup against a team that he has struggled against. Sean Koerner’s Pro Model puts Kamara’s total right at 80, showing some value in the under.
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