Week 10 caps off on Monday night with the Commanders traveling to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. Washington sits at 4-5, still in the thick of the Wild Card race in the NFC. A win would be massive for them, moving them to .500 on the year. Philly sits comfortably in first place in the NFC with essentially a two-game lead over Minnesota, thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Eagles are currently 11-point favorites, with the total for the game sitting at 44. Philly has been jumping ahead of teams quickly in games and riding their elite run game to salt away the game late. Will tonight be a similar story? Or will the Commanders be able to contribute an upset win to this already crazy NFL season?
Marcus Mariota threw for 99 yards on a late, almost garbage-time drive to lose us one of our props on Thursday Night. That 1-1 night brings us to 24-18 on the year.
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Commanders-Eagles NFL Player Props
Brian Robinson Jr. Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
It’s impressive how quickly Brian Robinson returned to the football field after his injury. He was the victim of an armed robbery attempt late in August in which two assailants shot him twice in his lower right leg. He saw his first regular season snap on October 9th, not even two months after the injury.
As impressive as it was for him to return to the field, his production on the field hasn’t been as special. He’s been inefficient as a ball carrier, averaging 3.3 yards per carry on the year. He is slightly dragged down by performances against the Titans and Colts, two of the top rushing defenses in the league. Robinson combined for 42 yards on 17 carries in those two games, good for 2.47 yards per carry.
Robinson averaged 3.54 yards per carry in his other three games against some weaker run defenses. He also went over his yardage total in all three games, running for 60, 73, and 44 yards. He did see a solid number of carries in these games, carrying the ball 17, 20, and 13 times. We’re currently projecting him for 10 carries, and with his yard-per-carry numbers, it’s a fair line.
However, the Eagles’ run defense is exploitable, which is why this prop stands out. That’s how you attack this defense, so expect the Commanders to get Robinson the ball. The Eagles are 27th in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA while ranking 2nd against the pass.
Robinson hasn’t been the most efficient runner, but he should see enough volume to exceed his yardage total against this poor Eagles run defense. Our Prop Tool has this number at 37.0, showing some solid value on the over.
Jalen Hurts Under 39.5 Rushing Yards
This prop will be scary to sweat, but it’s not fun if it’s easy, right? Jalen Hurts is one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the league, and he started the year scorching hot on the ground. He had 147 yards and three touchdowns on 28 carries in Philadelphia’s first two games.
Hurts has started to lean more on his arm than his legs recently, carrying the ball nine, two, and nine times in the Eagles’ past three games. He also only carried the ball just nine times for 20 yards when these teams first met. After his monster start to the year, Hurts has gone under this yardage total in five of his last six games. Most of the time, he was comfortably under, rushing for 20, 38, 61, 27, 10, and 23 yards in the six-game span.
This Washington defense is stout on the ground and weak against the pass, ranking second in Football Outsiders run defense DVOA but merely 25th against the pass. The Eagles have utilized Hurts less on the ground recently, and he’ll likely be inefficient on the attempts he has.
Our Prop Tool puts this number at 37, showing slight value on the under. Hopefully, Hurts leans on his arm as opposed to his legs tonight.
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