This Thursday Night showdown pits two teams that feel eerily similar, despite lopsided records. Green Bay is basically in “win or go home” mode, as they’re trying to defend their home field and improve to 5-6. Tennessee seems just to know how to win, as they bring a 6-3 record into the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.
Despite differing records, DVOA has these two teams at 13th and 14th overall. Green Bay ranks 9th offensively, with Tennessee down at 21st. With offense being far more predictive in today’s day and age, that bodes well for the home team.
After a 2-0 performance on Monday Night, the props are now 26-18 on the year. Let’s have another 2-0 night and get to ten more wins than losses!
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Titans-Packers NFL Player Props
AJ Dillon Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
Aaron Jones gets most of the attention in this Packers’ backfield, and for good reason. He’s an efficient and explosive runner who is a threat in the passing game as well. Despite Jones’ prowess, AJ Dillon is still a big part of this backfield and a primary contributor on the offense. The coaches and Aaron Rodgers always talk about how the offense is at its best when Jones and Dillon handle around 15 touches each. That would check out, As Dillon has carried the ball 12+ times in all four of Green Bay’s wins.
Dillon has double-digit carries in eight of ten games this year, averaging 11.1 carries per game. As the weather gets colder, Dillon gets leaned on more as a big and powerful runner. Green Bay didn’t hold any actual practices this week, but Jones was considered limited after injuring his ankle two weeks ago against the Lions. Dillon should see 10+ carries regardless of Jones’ health but has the upside for more.
Dillon is averaging 4.1 yards per carry, so double-digit attempts give him a solid chance of going over. He’s eclipsed this yardage total in eight of ten games, running for 32 and 15 yards in the other two contests. The matchup appears tough on paper, with Tennessee being the No. 1 ranked rush defense per DVOA. The matchup isn’t easy by any means, but it seems easier with a bit of digging.
The Titans have swallowed up opposing ground games, but they’ve faced a slew of poor rushing attacks. The Raiders, Broncos, Texans, Commanders, Colts, and Chiefs have been seven of their nine games, and none of those teams rank better than 20th in yards per game on the ground. Tennessee has played two offenses in the top half of the league in rushing yards per game in the Giants and Bills, and they dropped both contests. Buffalo ran for 101 yards on the ground, and the Giants ran for 238 yards. The Packers rank 12th in rushing yards per game.
Our Prop Tool puts Dillon’s total at 36 yards, with Chris Raybon’s model putting him up to 39. There’s some solid value here.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
Nick Westbrook-Ikihine is coming off the best game of his career, catching five of eight targets for 119 yards and two touchdowns, including a 63-yard score. He may not light up the box score every week, but he’s produced consistently for most of the year.
He had zero catches in games quarterbacked by Malik Willis, so we’re not going to place too much emphasis on those performances. He’s gone over his yardage total in three of his last four quarterbacked by Ryan Tannehill. He went under this total in his first two games, racking up 13 yards in both contests. He only connected on two of six targets in that span, so a more normal catch rate would’ve likely eclipsed this total.
Westbrook-Ikhine is out there on the majority of plays for Tennessee. He’s run a route on 76% of dropbacks for the year, including 87.5% over the past four games. He also has an average depth of target of 15.8 air yards, so it could only take one or two catches for him to eclipse his total.
The matchup is juicy for Derrick Henry on the ground, but we’re expecting Green Bay to load up the box and make Tennessee throw.
Sean Koerner’s Model puts Westbrook-Ikhine at 25.7 yards, and Chris Raybon has him at 31.7 yards.
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