To answer Hank Williams Jr.’s rhetorical question, yes, I am ready for some football.
After months of gently sobbing, we have finally arrived at Week 1 of the 2023 season. Although the opening action comes with many questions about how offseason moves will impact on-field results, we’re ready for some answers. The full slate of games offers a bevy of betting options to choose from, but as usual, FantasyLabs has you covered from every angle.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems on Betr or Sleeper Fantasy for this week’s matchup.
Don’t forget to leverage our Player Props Tool from Sean Koerner and our analytics team to identify where the biggest edges are.
Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.
Week 1 NFL Player Prop Picks
Note: all these props are available at Sleeper Fantasy.
Braxton Berrios Over 1.5 Receptions
One of the most exciting offenses in football opens their season with a road matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Arguably, the Miami Dolphins feature the best one-two receiver punch in the league with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Although they figure to see the lion’s share of looks from Tua Tagovailoa, don’t lose sight of what Braxton Berrios has to offer.
The former Miami Hurricane joined the Dolphins this offseason and projects as their top slot receiver. Berrios will have plenty of opportunities to contribute, joining one of the most prolific passing units in the NFL. Last season, Miami finished with the seventh-highest passing play percentage, yielding the sixth-most yards and seventh-most passing touchdowns.
Those numbers will only go higher with Berrios in the fold. At his peak, Berrios was averaging 2.9 receptions per game on 4.1 targets, and that was part of an underwhelming New York Jets attack. With Tagavailoa operating one of the most efficient passing units, Berrios should have an even higher ceiling this year.
The Dolphins lost a few secondary receiving options, ensuring there are plenty of targets for Berrios. We’re betting he delivers early in the season, going over his 1.5 receptions prop.
Samaje Perine Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
Another veteran is looking to entrench himself with his new squad. Samaje Perine inked a two-year deal with the Denver Broncos and should be the primary pass-catching back at Mile High. Sean Payton has already teased the heavy workload that is waiting for the Broncos’ running back duo, which is not reflected in Perine’s player props.
Last year, the Cincinnati Bengals unlocked Perine’s pass-catching potential. The Oklahoma product set career highs in targets, receptions, and yards, finding paydirt four times. We’re betting those metrics tick higher, as Perine takes on a more prominent role in Payton’s offense.
Up until his final year, Payton operated one of the top offenses in the NFL. More importantly, he incorporated running backs into every aspect of his play design. Perine may have flashed his full potential with the Bengals, but we’ll see how high he can fly with his new teammates in Denver.
Perine starts the season with a modest 10.5 receiving yard prop. Cross-referencing that total with our player prop model reveals a substantive edge in backing the Broncos running back to go over his total. Perine is projected to accumulate 18.7 receiving yards, but even that might be undervaluing his potential.
Michael Thomas Over 3.5 Receptions
Injuries de-railed Michael Thomas’ career, but there’s still time left for the New Orleans Saints wide receiver to get back on track. The former Offensive Player of the Year has played in just three games over the past couple of seasons while resolving ankle and foot injuries. Still, when healthy, Thomas has shown that he remains one of the best pass-catchers in the game.
Prior to going down with an injury, Thomas was heavily involved in the Saints passing attack. In just three games last year, one of which he left early, Thomas totaled 16 catches on 22 targets for an impressive 72.7% catch rate. Moreover, he made those catches count, totaling 171 yards and three scores.
Even though Chris Olave has cemented himself as a centerpiece in New Orleans, Thomas is still a primary pass catcher for the Saints. Thomas has had almost a full year to recover from 2022’s setback and is poised to re-ignite the flame that made him the best offensive player in the league.
For the first time in years, the Saints have a legitimate quarterback. That means a more effective passing game with better production and results. Thomas is fundamental to getting the Saints offense moving and should go over his modest 3.5 receptions.
