So long, families and responsibilities. Farewell, chores, and work.
Football. Is. Back.
The 2023 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with a banner-raising ceremony for the Kansas City Chiefs. Of course, the Chiefs enter the campaign as defending Super Bowl Champions, hosting the Detroit Lions in a non-conference tilt. Like most of the league, both teams are brimming with optimism as they set their respective sights on a successful season. Still, night one could be an unsuspecting defensive battle for two squads with undervalued defenses.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems on Betr or Sleeper Fantasy for this week’s matchup.
Don’t forget to leverage our Player Props Tool from Sean Koerner and our analytics team to identify where the biggest edges are.
Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.
Lions-Chiefs NFL Player Prop Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs Under 32.5 Receiving Yards
After a successful 2022 campaign, the Detroit Lions underwent an offseason of change. Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes re-tooled the Lions backfield, moving on from D’Andre Swift and bringing in three new ball carriers. Among those is rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, who may need a few weeks to get acclimated to the rigors of the NFL.
Gibbs is projected to be used as a pass-catching back for the Lions, but he will have to compete with a bevy of other receiving options. Amon-Ra St. Brown will get the lion’s share of looks from Jared Goff, with Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds, and Kalif Raymond also factoring into the passing game. Mix in the rookie tight end Sam LaPorta and Gibbs’ receiving ceiling looks lower and lower.
Moreover, the Lions are competing against one of the top pass defenses in the league. The Chiefs allowed an average of 220.9 passing yards per game last year, limiting opponents to 240 yards or fewer in 11 of their 17 outings.
Check-downs only get you so far, negatively impacting Gibbs’ potential in Week 1. Those issues will be compounded by an elite passing defense, a stable of pass-catching options, and a rookie receiver ready for his first taste of the pros.
We’re learning into our projections, taking the under on Gibbs’ receiving yards prop at Sleeper Fantasy.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 6.5 Receptions
We’re taking another stance against the Lions passing game, betting the under on St. Brown’s reception prop. Defenses have all the tape they need on St. Brown, and, like Gibbs, there are a few other factors working against the Lions’ top receiver.
St. Brown will have to earn his receptions this year, as opponents put their top defenders against the wideout. On top of eluding a lockdown corner, St. Brown also has to be weary of safety help as defenses aim to shut down Goff’s best-receiving option. Those concerns are amplified against a premier Chiefs unit, which impressed with some noteworthy metrics last year.
Additionally, there also appears to be a statistical advantage to betting under 6.5 receptions. Although he had a breakout year in 2022, St. Brown’s elite performances were limited to a handful of games. The former fourth-round pick was limited to six or fewer receptions on seven occasions, eking over that number with seven catches four more times.
He hovered around that number for most of last year, and the Chiefs defense should be good to keep him below that threshold.
Jerick McKinnon Under 17.5 Rushing Yards
With the emergence of Isiah Pacheco and a seemingly neverending stable of skilled players, Jerick McKinnon has taken on a tertiary role for the Chiefs. That’s reflected in his Week 1 rushing prop, but it’s still not low enough.
McKinnon’s usage was scant in 2022, and it’s probable that declines further in his age 31 season. He managed more than five carries on just six occasions last year, running for an average of 4.0 yards per carry. Moreover, McKinnon fell below 15.5 rushing yards nine times, representing over half of his appearances.
We can’t discount the Lions rush defense in 2023. Detroit held opponents to 107 rushing yards or less in seven of their last 11 games in 2022. A full year under his belt only bolsters Aidan Hutchinson’s impact, as he anchors what should be a solid defensive line.
With Pacheco primed to build off last year’s breakout and Clyde Edwards-Helaire still lurking in the background, McKinnon will have to settle for another supporting cast role. That’s reflected in our opening-week projections, which currently has McKinnon projected for 15 rushing yards.
