This is a special London edition of the Vegas Report covering the Vegas trends of the NFL International Series and their daily fantasy implications for the week’s slate of games. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL Content Dashboard.
Last year I looked at all the Vegas data for the NFL games abroad and highlighted some prevalent patterns. With 10 years (17 games) of data for the London game, I figure now is as good of a time as any to provide an update. In case you didn’t notice, the NFL is starting its London onslaught — “The Londonslaught” — one week earlier this year than it normally does with the addition of a fourth London game. It wasn’t enough to punish the British with bad football and the football players with bad field conditions just three times per year.
This week the Ravens-Jaguars game kicks off at 9:30 AM ET and is included in a few slates:
- Thu-Mon, 16 games, 8:25 PM ET
- Thu-Sun, 2 games, 8:25 PM ET
- Sun-Mon, 15 games, 9:30 AM ET
Nothing says “The weekend is almost here” like a two-game Thursday-nighter featuring the Rams, 49ers, Ravens, and Jaguars, but most people (unless they’re CSURAM88-caliber degenerates) don’t play every slate. That’s fine, but too many people dismiss the London game out of hand. That will especially be the case this week given the teams in the contest. Don’t overlook this game. Traditionally the London contest has been a source of some fantasy goodness. Sure, the game has a slate-low over/under of 39 points, but if the past is any indication this game could surprise.
Vegas Plus/Minus
I’ve created a Vegas Plus/Minus metric — similar to our proprietary daily fantasy Plus/Minus metric — that compares actual production with expected (or implied) production. When a team hits or surpasses its implied total (i.e., has a Vegas Plus/Minus of at least 0.00) then it has an implied ‘win.’ If it falls short of the implied total, I count that as an implied ‘loss.’
Favorites
The London favorites have historically crushed.
Over the 17 London games, the average implied total for the favorites has been a solid 24.68 points per game (PPG), which they’ve smoked with an actual score of 29.82, good for a +5.15 Vegas Plus/Minus on their way to a 14-3 implied record. Over the last half-decade (12 games) the outperformance by favorites has been even more extreme as they’ve scored 31.58 PPG for a +7.31 Vegas Plus/Minus and 10 implied wins.
Underdogs
In contrast to the favorites, who have massively overperformed, the underdogs have marginally underperformed.
Since 2007 the dogs have been implied for 19.53 PPG, finishing with 18.59 PPG for a -0.94 Vegas Plus/Minus and 6-11 implied record; since 2012, -0.73 at 5-7. The dogs haven’t been especially bad in London, but they’ve been mediocre and downright forgettable next to the favorites.
Over/Under
Offensive production within an NFL contest is often correlated across teams. As a result, many sharp DFS players stack games (instead of just teams) in guaranteed prize pools. To highlight teams that tend to play in games that hit or surpass the Vegas total, I’ve created an Over/Under Differential metric: The actual total of games minus their over/unders. The London games have provided some over/under value, especially in recent years.
Overall the London game is 10-7 on the over with a +4.21 Over/Under Differential. Since 2012, it’s 9-3 with a +6.58 on an average of 50.58 PPG scored. That’s some strong production. As you can see from the Vegas Plus/Minus data above, more than 100 percent of that excess production has come from the favorites.
Point Spread
The spread is the go-to number for Vegas and DFS, as it is predictive of game script and outcome. As a result I’ve created a Spread Differential metric so we can see how teams have done on a PPG basis relative to the spread. Although there’s been a fantasy edge with the London game over the last decade, there hasn’t been a strong Vegas edge in picking against the spread (ATS).
Since 2007, favorites are 10-7 ATS with a +6.09 Spread Differential; since 2012, 7-5 with a mark of +8.04. Although the ATS record isn’t impressive, the Spread Differential is significant as there have been a few London games in which the favorites have destroyed the underdogs by more than three touchdowns. When the favorites have covered, they’ve done so by an average of 14.5 PPG.
The London School of Philosophy
Why do favorites tends to crush in London while underdogs underperform? I have a theory. The London game occurs under suboptimal circumstances: Teams travel 5-8 time zones east and have limited time to acclimate themselves before playing a physical game that lasts for three hours. They also play in stadiums that aren’t well-equipped to handle football games: The grass surface is easily torn up, and the locker rooms are built to hold soccer teams, not NFL teams, which have more people and equipment.
My theory is that when two teams compete against each other in irregular and/or suboptimal circumstances, the one that suffers more because of situation is likely to be the one already disadvantaged on account of talent, coaching, etc. Of course, I could be wrong. We’re talking about a sample of only 17 games. What we see in the data could be nothing but noise.
DFS Outlook
Regardless of everything I just said, we shouldn’t expect big offensive production from this game. Still, the Ravens and Jaguars don’t need to play especially well to surpass their 39-point over/under — especially if a defensive touchdown is scored, which is possible given the quarterbacks. Since Blake Bortles entered the league in 2014, no quarterback has more than his 53 interceptions. Over that time, Joe Flacco is tied for fifth with 41 interceptions. The Ravens are first in the NFL with 10 defensive takeaways; the Jaguars, third with five.
This could be a game to use our Lineup Builder to stack running backs with defenses. The Ravens are first in the league with a rush rate of 57.81 percent; the Jags, third with 53.89. Leonard Fournette is second with 40 carries on the season; Javorius Allen, fourth with 35. Of those two, I prefer the Sith Lord on account of his superior pass-catching ability and three-down potential. There’s also Terrance West, who has pitched in with 27 carries for 102 yards and two touchdowns across two games. In the 15- and 16-game slates, tournament ownership for this game will almost certainly be low — but would it be that surprising to see a Ravens or Jags RB-D/ST stack put up a lot of points?
Given that these teams (at least in 2017) tend toward the run, it’s probably best to avoid the passers. No quarterback has played in more London games than Bortles, which is the saddest fact ever. (Ryan Tannehill and Josh Freeman both have two apiece. The NFL really must dislike the British.) You probably weren’t thinking about starting him anyway, but just in case you were you should know that Bortles has been horrible (unsurprisingly) in his two London games as a dog:
- DraftKings and FanDuel PPG: 13.44
- Plus/Minus: -0.53 and -0.37
He’s without Allen Robinson, attempting only 22.5 passes per game, and near the bottom of the league with 5.4 adjusted yards per attempt. Phrased differently: He’s one of the few quarterbacks worse than Flacco.
And if you’re not willing to roster Bortles or Flacco in guaranteed prize pools, why would you roster Marqise Lee, Allen Hurns, Jeremy Maclin, or Mike Wallace? They’re all cheap, Lee and Hurns are dominating Jacksonville’s target share, Maclin has been a touchdown producer for Baltimore, and Wallace always has big-play upside because of his speed, so there are legitimate reasons to roster any of these wide receivers as part of a game stack — but their collective 9.03 DraftKings and 7.53 FanDuel PPG on the season makes that a jagged little pill to swallow.
Alanis Morissette is British, right? I don’t know what a British accent sounds like.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed:
