Over the last month, our own Bryan Mears has written several conceptual pieces pertaining to DFS principles and their comps to paradoxes, mind-bending analogies, and, in a sense, psychology. For an example, I would suggest you check out his most recent work about a family trip to Abilene, TX (a city I’ve actually visited living in Texas and, by the way, they were hypothetically correct: the food at that cafeteria definitely sucked).
If the endgame of that series, however, was to get at least one individual thinking outside of the box during, or even after lineup construction, then congrats, Bryan. Well played.
Take the coffee cup next to my computer, for instance (or imagine a cup of your own if you feel as if mine’s too grimy for you). To anyone walking in, it would be just that: a half-filled cup of coffee that I hadn’t finished and simply forgot to drop off near the sink before exiting the house. Nothing unusual there. But what if I had actually taken it to the kitchen before stepping out? What if I had set it next to the sink, only my partner – one who’s a stickler for these sorts of things – had told me time and time again to run the damn thing under water, inevitably forcing her to set it next to my computer as both a reminder and an underlying middle-finger? You walk in and see a cup of coffee, sure. But I walk in and see an entire story (as well as the fact that I’m getting yelled at later that evening).
This is how I tend to treat a few areas of our models. Lately, Opponent Plus/Minus has irked me to no end, specifically as it pertains to defenses we know are above-average.
Don’t get me wrong. All the data at hand, especially Opponent Plus/Minus, already gives anyone willing to put in the additional work a one-up over the competition. But if we have an inordinate amount of information telling us one thing, why flock to the sliver that remains drowned in red flags?
Take the top-five in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks: New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Miami, (and mucking it up in a three-way tie for fifth-overall) Cleveland, Green Bay, and Chicago. Anyone could’ve likely named five or six of those teams off the top of their head if initially asked to guess. But Chicago? That to me is a coffee cup next to my computer.
Below are the rankings I would think weigh heaviest when discussing the top pass defenses:
(*Opp PPG = Opponent Plays Per Game)
A few notes:
- For the most part, the pieces of the puzzle seemingly fit. Still, it appears the Packers are in store for regression rather than going any further up this board. You can thank Cam Newton and Phillip Rivers, who combined threw for 35.7% of passing touchdowns against the Packers, for the reason Green Bay is even on this list.
- The Saints aren’t fooling anyone. They’re the worst across the board no matter how you frame it. Still, it’s quite amazing that opponents have found such roaring success despite passing against them at a bottom-10 rate.
- It’s exactly as we thought. The Bears are quite good in all aspects of their secondary minus touchdowns allowed. At the beginning of the year, it would’ve been (and it was) easier to say their yards allowed would eventually regress to mirror opposing touchdown production. Looking back, it now appears those 11 touchdowns allowed to Aaron Rodgers (Week 1), Carson Palmer (Week 2), and Matthew Stafford (Week 6) were the outliers.
The same can be done for running backs, as well:
- Admittedly, the Jaguars were the entire reason for this project. Just look at those peripherals. Ain’t nobody finding success on the ground against an underrated Jacksonville squad, and yet Opponent Plus/Minus continued telling us to target them. Opponents run the ball at a top-five rate against Jacksonville, but those four rushing touchdowns allowed to New England back in Week 3 laid a farce blueprint for the rest of the league.
- It could go either way, but it appears more likely than not that the Falcons defense will inevitably settle only slightly better than our expectations. You would think their YPA comes back to Earth over the next five weeks given their 19th-overall rushing DVOA, but their Opponent Plus/Minus has also clearly received an uptick due to the unfair amount of touchdowns they’ve allowed.
- Dallas allowed Devonta Freeman to rush for 27.2% of the rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed on the season and still haven’t heard the end of it. The Cowboys remain one of only two teams allowing fewer than 61 opponent plays per game (due to the grueling pace of their offense), leaving success – though not entirely possible to find – limited at best. Much like the Falcons, Dallas will likely finish the year only slightly better than where they currently stand.
The same could be done for wide receiver but would likely take a bit more research given shadowing and nickel matchups (which I assume would weight quite heavily from week to week). For now, I’m only hoping you have a better understanding of potential blind spots before sitting down to create your Week 13 lineups.
That, or at the least, remembering to run your dishes under water.
