The Tight End Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
It’s Week 14, and you’re reading a piece dedicated just to tight ends. You don’t need an introduction. You need an intervention. Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 13-game main slate.
The Big One (or Two)
Two players dominate the top of the tight end salary scale — health permitting.
- Travis Kelce ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
- Zach Ertz ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Once more unto the breach, dear friends.
Mount Olympus, Kansas City
Zeus leads the Chiefs with 94 targets, 66 receptions, and seven touchdowns. He’s second on the team with 871 yards receiving, 966 air yards, and 331 yards after the catch. At worst, Kelce is the 1B to wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s 1A. He’s a market share monster. Kelce has run 420 routes this year: 101 were as an inline tight end, but 213 were from the slot, 104 were out wide, and two were from the backfield. Kelce is Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 tight end with an overall grade of 88.4, but when the Chiefs use him as a pass catcher he’s less of a tight end and more of a big-bodied wide receiver. The Chiefs line him up wherever they want or need to in order to get him the ball.
The Chiefs are -4.0 home favorites, and Kelce has a nice matchup: The Raiders are dead last against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and specifically 27th in pass DVOA against tight ends. If Kelce has a poor game, it will have more to do with new play caller Matt Nagy or quarterback Alex Smith than with the players defending him. The Chiefs have the slate’s highest passing points expectation, and Kelce has position-high median projections in our Models. Kelce is tied for the position high with six Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he leads the position with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the Levitan Model.
“Everybody Ertz Sometimes”
After exiting Week 13 in the third quarter with a concussion, Ertz is questionable for this week and currently in the league’s protocol. If he suits up he’ll be intriguing because Ertz is a top-three fantasy tight end, but if he’s unable to play then Trey Burton ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) will start in his place. As mentioned on the Week 14 Daily Fantasy Flex, Burton will be a near-chalk lock without Ertz. When Burton started for an injured Ertz in Week 9, he turned four targets into a 2/41/1 receiving line. After Ertz exited last week, Burton was targeted seven times, producing a 4/42/0 line. If Ertz misses this week — and he’s tentatively expected to — then Burton will have high ownership.
The matchup, though, is tough: The Rams are fourth in pass DVOA against tight ends thanks to safeties Lamarcus Joyner and John Johnson III and linebacker Mark Barron: Joyner is PFF’s No. 1 safety in coverage, and Johnson and Barron are top-20 cover men at their position. Because of his low salaries and the established role the tight end has in the Eagles offense, Burton isn’t inordinately risky — but he might have more risk than most DFS players realize. Still, the Eagles have hit their implied Vegas total in an NFL-best 10 games and lead the league with 38 offensive touchdowns. The total has dropped three points since it opened, but the Eagles-Rams game still leads the slate with an over/under of 48.0 points.
UPDATE (12/7): Ertz had a limited practice on Thursday and is now expected to clear the concussion protocol and play this weekend. Over his last 16 outings, Ertz has turned 139 targets into a wide receiver-like stat line of 97/1,106/10. In his 13 games since last year without former teammate and wide receiver Jordan Matthews, Ertz has functioned as the team’s slot man, turning 116 targets into a 79/881/10 line. As bad as the Chip Kelly era was in Philadelphia, the departed coach at least did something right in drafting Ertz, who leads the position with six DraftKings and 10 FanDuel Pro Trends.
The Dumpoff Pass
Evan Engram ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Engram has had bouts of inconsistency as a rookie, but since the season-ending injuries to wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) and Brandon Marshall (ankle) in Week 5 he has led the Giants with 59 targets, 32 receptions, 369 receiving yards, 496 air yards, 189 yards after the catch, and five receiving touchdowns. Engram could benefit from a pass-heavy game script as a +4.0 home underdog against the Cowboys, who are 25th in pass DVOA against tight ends.
Jimmy Graham ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Graham has transformed into middle-aged Antonio Gates. He’s not the yardage accumulator he was in New Orleans, but over the past eight games Graham has caught nine touchdowns and a two-point conversion. He’s first in the league with 15 targets inside the 10-yard line. The Jaguars have an elite secondary, but they’re weaker at safety (Barry Church and Tashaun Gipson) than at cornerback (Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, and Aaron Colvin), ranking 15th in pass DVOA against the position. Graham and quarterback Russell Wilson have 0.59 and 0.69 correlation coefficients on DraftKings and FanDuel, and Wilson will be contrarian. Use our Lineup Builder to create Wilson-Graham stacks.
Jason Witten ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): Witten’s play has marginally dropped off as the season has progressed, but he’s still second on the Cowboys with 68 targets and 51 receptions. The Cowboys are -4.0 road favorites against the divisional rival Giants, whom Witten has smashed in the Jason Garrett era (0.52 touchdowns vs. Giants, 0.28 vs. all other opponents). The Giants have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position with 16.6 DraftKings and 13.6 FanDuel points per game (PPG).
Jared Cook ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): Cook has disappointed over the last three weeks with four receptions for 47 yards, but he’s still averaged five targets per game during that time, and wide receiver Amari Cooper (knee) is questionable to play. Through 12 games Cook is first on the team with 43 receptions and 545 yards receiving. Running 282 of his 361 routes from the slot or out wide, Cook basically plays as a wide receiver.
Kyle Rudolph ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Rudolph has 38 targets inside the red zone since last season and a team-high six touchdowns receiving this year. He also has a tough matchup against the Panthers, who are second against tight ends in pass DVOA: Linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are PFF’s No. 2 and No. 12 cover men at their position and strong safety Mike Adams is No. 14.
Delanie Walker ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Walker leads the Titans with 82 targets, 58 receptions, 676 receiving yards, and 862 air yards. He has four red zone targets and two touchdowns over the last four weeks.
Tyler Kroft ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Since becoming the every-down tight end in Week 3, Kroft has averaged 4.3 targets per game for 3.2 receptions, 34.2 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns. Over that same time No. 2 wide receiver Brandon LaFell has 5.5 targets per game for 3.4 receptions, 37.4 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns. Behind A.J. Green, Kroft is basically the second option in Cincinnati’s passing game.
Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): In Blaine Gabbert‘s three starts at quarterback, RSJ has turned 16 targets into nine receptions, 170 yards, and three touchdowns, coming out of nowhere to emerge as the second receiver in the Cardinals offense. An undrafted rookie, Seals-Jones is intriguing, but he’s yet to play even 25 percent of Arizona’s offensive snaps in a game.
Richard Rodgers ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) and Lance Kendricks ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): The Browns have allowed the most fantasy points to the position this year with 17.1 DraftKings and 13.7 FanDuel PPG. They are dead last in pass DVOA against tight ends and have allowed a league-high 32 touchdowns to the position since 2015. Either Rodgers or Kendricks could accidentally fall into the end zone while holding the ball.
Vernon Davis ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): Starter Jordan Reed (hamstring) will miss his sixth straight game, so Davis will once again function as the primary tight end for the Redskins. Although Davis has averaged 5.2 targets and 47.5 yards per game without Reed over the last two years, he’s bombed in the past two games, totaling just 15 yards on three targets. He also has a tough matchup against the Chargers: They have a stout safety duo with Jahleel Addae and Tre Boston, and Davis might be used more than usual in pass protection to provide help against edge rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Week 7 is the last time ASJ scored a touchdown, but he’s averaged 5.2 targets per game since then, and now he has a great matchup against the Broncos. Last year they were fifth against tight ends in pass DVOA. This year, however, with the departure of strong safety T.J. Ward via free agency, the Broncos are 26th, as strong safety Darian Stewart, free safety Justin Simmons, and safety/linebacker Will Parks have allowed 71.9 percent of the 103 passes thrown into their coverage to be completed for 815 yards and 11 touchdowns. In total, opposing tight ends have scored the third-most fantasy points against the Broncos with 16.3 DraftKings and 13.5 FanDuel PPG.
Cameron Brate ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick must hate Brate worse than the madman in The Jerk hates cans. This season Fitz has started three games: Brate has a total of eight targets, three receptions, and 28 yards in those games. In Brate’s 24 games since last year with Jameis Winston as the starter, he’s averaged 5.7 targets per game for 3.8 receptions, 46.4 yards, and 0.58 touchdowns. Winston looked healthy in his return to action last week, and the Lions are 31st against tight ends in pass DVOA.
Hunter Henry ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): It’s hard to trust Henry in cash — he has three or fewer targets in five games — but his upside is undeniable, and he’s made a habit of producing against teams weak in tight end defense: Dolphins (Week 2), Giants (Week 5), Raiders (Week 6), Broncos (Week 7), Cowboys (Week 12), and Browns (Week 13). This week the Chargers are implied for 26.0 points as -6.0 home favorites against the Redskins, who have allowed the fifth-most points to tight ends with 15.6 DraftKings and 12.7 FanDuel PPG. Henry has the position’s highest ceiling projections in our Models.
The Model Tight Ends
Besides Kelce, there are four tight ends atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek).
- Jack Doyle ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
- Charles Clay ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
- Eric Ebron ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
- Stephen Anderson ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel)
Doyle doesn’t have an easy matchup — Bills safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are PFF’s No. 4 and No. 8 cover men at their position — but he leads the Colts with 82 targets, 62 receptions, and 272 yards after the catch. As a pass catcher he is less of a tight end and more of a wide receiver, running 72.6 percent of his routes when lined up in the slot or out wide, and his low average depth of target (aDOT) of 5.1 yards has helped him convert 75.6 percent of his opportunities into receptions as a security blanket for quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Doyle pulls off “The Double Donk” as the highest-rated FanDuel tight end in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Clay (knee) is in a precarious situation. He missed Weeks 7-9 with a lingering injury — he didn’t practice on Wednesday and is questionable — and quarterback Tyrod Taylor (knee) is dealing with an injury and seems unlikely to play. If Nathan Peterman once again starts at quarterback for the Bills, it’s possible that Clay could see extra targets as a reliable middle-of-the-field and low-aDOT option, especially with slot receiver Jordan Matthews (knee) on Injured Reserve. It helps that the Colts are 29th in pass DVOA against the position. Clay is tied for the position lead with six Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he’s the highest-rated tight end in the Bales and SportsGeek Models.
Get ready to have your mind blown: Because of his reduced salary, Ebron leads all tight ends with a 100 percent DraftKings Consistency Rating since his Week 7 bye. Ebron has 4.7 targets per game over the past six weeks, and he’s been efficient at turning them into receptions with a 67.9 percent catch rate. He has a horrible matchup against the Bucs, who have held tight ends to league-low fantasy marks of 9.0 DraftKings and 7.2 FanDuel PPG, but it’s possible Ebron could see some targets while lined up as a wide receiver: This year exactly half (160) of his routes have been as an inline tight end while the other half have been as a wideout or slot receiver. Per usual, Ebron will have almost no ownership. He’s the highest-rated DraftKings tight end in the CSURAM88 and Levitan Models.
The investment case for Anderson is simple: At some point, Texans quarterback Tom Savage will need to throw to someone else besides wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Tight ends C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion) and Ryan Griffin (concussion) and slot receiver Bruce Ellington (hamstring) are on IR. Slot receiver Braxton Miller (concussion) didn’t practice on Wednesday and is in the league’s protocol. He seems unlikely to play. Wide receiver Will Fuller (ribs) had a limited practice on Wednesday, but he has missed the past three weeks and is uncertain to play. With limited options available last week, Anderson ran a season-high 50 routes — 38 of which were from the slot and out wide — and he was targeted 12 times for a 5/79/1 line. A wide receiver in college, the second-year pro has good size (6’2″ and 230 pound), speed (4.64-second 40), and agility (6.95-second three-cone) for a move tight end, and he has a good matchup against the 49ers, who are exploitable with safeties Jaquiski Tartt (arm) and Jimmie Ward (arm) on IR. Available for the stone minimum on FanDuel, where he’s the top tight end in the SportsGeek Model, Anderson is a viable punt play.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the tight ends for yourself with our tools, and read the other Week 14 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
