Day 2 of Wild Card weekend continues Sunday, albeit with an abbreviated schedule. The Snowmageddon contest between the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers was moved to Monday evening, leaving football enthusiasts with just two contests Sunday. Now, the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys kick things off at 4:30 pm ET, followed by a Sunday night affair between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions, kicking off at 8:30 pm ET.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Wild Card Sunday NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Brandin Cooks Higher 3.0 Receptions and Higher 41.5 Receiving Yards
Preparing for a battle against the Dallas Cowboys comes with a unique set of challenges, usually centered around slowing CeeDee Lamb. While opponents have been busy trying to figure out ways of corralling Lamb, Brandin Cooks has been flying under the radar as a solid secondary option. The veteran wideout has hit his stride over the last few weeks, and he will play a vital role in helping the Cowboys get past the Packers.
Cooks has emerged as one of Prescott’s preferred receivers this season. The 10-year pro had the third-most targets this season, carving out a more prominent role as the campaign progressed. Cooks hit his stride more recently, absorbing a 20.5% target share since Week 17 while hauling in at least five passes in each contest.
While everyone is focused on Lamb, Cooks will be busy doing what he does best: dutifully taking care of business en route to another above-average performance. We like Cook to go north of his receptions and receiving-yards projections in the Wild Card Round.
Luke Musgrave Lower 15.5 Receiving Yards
For a team that relies on the pass as much as the Packers do, they haven’t had a formidable tight end in their lineup for quite some time. Instead, the team typically relies on a stable of tight ends rather than having a premier pass-catching big man. As the season’s gone on, we’ve recognized that Luke Musgrave isn’t the preferred pass-catching tight end in Green Bay’s offense. Consequently, we’re expecting him to fall below his modest receiving-yards projection in Dallas.
Naturally, there are a few factors at play. First, Musgrave has fallen behind Tucker Kraft on the Packers depth chart. Musgraves has played just one game since Week 11, making it back onto the field in Week 18 after a six-week absence. Using last week as our stepping off point, Kraft had three targets to Musgrave’s one, out-snapping him 90.0% to 15.0%.
Secondly, we’re not expecting either tight end to thrive against a top-end Cowboys defense. Dallas allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards this season, with tight ends faiing to deliver any meaningful contributions. Logan Thomas had just one catch for 10 yards in Week 18, becoming the third opposing tight end over the last five weeks to fall below 30 receiving yards.
The Packers showed their cards last week, deferring to Kraft as their top tight end. Although Musgrave will play a role on offense, it likely won’t be sufficient enough to get him over his most receiving-yards projection. We’re expecting the rookie tight end to fall short of 15.5 receiving yards.
Jahmyr Gibbs Higher 11.5 Rushing Attempts
Shared backfields are challenging to navigate. And that’s especially true when dissecting the Lions’ running back situation. Depending on the week, we’ve seen Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery serve as the primary back. Irrespective of who has the most carries Sunday, we expect Gibbs to shoulder at least 12 of those touches against the Rams.
We can’t say that Gibbs has supplanted Montgomery, but he’s definitely earned a fairer share of the workload. Over the previous three weeks, the rookie out of Alabama has totaled 43 carries to Montgomery’s 41, out-touching him in two of those three contests. Moreover, Gibbs has recorded no fewer than 13 carries in any one of those outings.
From a gameplanning perspective, it makes a lot of sense for the Lions to lean into their passing game against the Rams. The longer Detroit can keep L.A.’s offense off the field the better, which will necessitate more involvement from the ground game.
As demonstrated, Gibbs has cemented himself as the top running back for the Lions. The 21-year-old has out-played Montgomery over the latter part of the campaign, earning a more robust workshare. That upward trajectory should make it easy for Gibbs to surpass 11.5 rushing attempts as the Lions look to punch their tickets to the second round.
Kyren Williams Higher 19.5 Rushing Attempts
In the spirit of giving credit where credit is due, the Los Angeles Rams probably wouldn’t be in the playoffs if not for Kyren Williams. The second-year pro has been a revelation on offense, unshackling Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford from the criticism of last year. If you’ve lost sight of Williams, or haven’t been paying attention, let Sunday’s tilt against the Lions be your reminder of just how great Williams can be.
The Notre Dame alum has been a high-volume rusher for the Rams. Williams has exceeded 20 carries in five straight games, averaging 23.0 carries across that stretch. Pointing that lens further back reveals a similarly outstanding profile, as Williams has 20 or more carries in seven of his past nine, with 21.0 rushing attempts per game.
Like the Lions, L.A. needs to prioritize possession metrics. Stapling Detroit’s offense to the bench allows the Rams to dictate pace and keep their defense fresh. Williams plays a vital role in those possession metrics, and we’ve seen him flourish as the lead back.
Clock control will be paramount for both teams. Thankfully, the Rams can turn to Williams, furthering their cause and keeping the Lions off the field. We’ve seen McVay deploy Williams more frequently toward the end of the season, and that trend will continue into the postseason. There will be no shortage of touches for Williams, and he should have no problem eclipsing 19.5 rushing attempts at Ford Field.
