Wild Card Weekend concludes with another two-game slate featuring matchups from both conferences. The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers kick off the action with a Monday matinee in Queen City. Subsequently, the Philadelphia Eagles try to buck their underwhelming end to the season and punch their tickets to the Divisional Round with a road showdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both contests feature some of the lowest totals of the weekend, but there are actionable plays in each game.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Wild Card Monday NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Trent Sherfield Higher 13.5 Receiving Yards
As usual, Josh Allen holds the key to unlocking the Bills offense. The two-time Pro Bowler led Buffalo on a late-season run up the standings, usurping the Miami Dolphins for the AFC East in the final game of the regular season. Allen extracted every ounce of value he could out of his receiving corps, including often-forgotten Trent Sherfield.
Sherfield is a relatively unknown commodity, albeit one with an expanding profile. The veteran wideout is in his first season with the Bills, taking on a more prominent role with the team over the last quarter of the season. Over the last four games, Sherfield has exceeded 57% of the snaps in all but one of those outings, being targeted seven times over that stretch. More impressively, four of those passes came in the must-win regular-season finale, a contest in which he put up a season-best 24 yards on three catches.
This isn’t our most glamorous pick, but it is one that is made with a lot of conviction. Sherfield has endeared himself to the Bills, earning a more equitable share of the workload. Pittsburgh leaves opposing pass-catchers mostly undisturbed. Over the past three weeks, the Steelers have allowed 18 players to record at least 10 receiving yards. Surely, Sherfield will get in on the action at home, surpassing 13.5 receiving yards on Monday.
Dawson Knox Lower 15.5 Receiving Yards
One player with a less promising ceiling against the Steelers is Dawson Knox. The Bills tight end has taken on a diminished role on offense, giving way to Dalton Kincaid as the preferred pass-catching option. We took a stance against Knox last week, and it didn’t pay off, but his downward trajectory continued, and we expect him to have a hard time gaining any traction in the playoffs.
Objectively, Knox is taking on a reduced role with the Bills. Before going down with a mid-season injury, Knox had played at least 60% of the snaps in all but one of his seven appearances. Moreover, the fifth-year pro was a regular fixture in the passing attack, accumulating at least three targets in six of seven outings.
Since then, Knox has conceded snaps and targets to rookie Dalton Kincaid. Knox has fallen below 48.0% of snaps in four of five games since returning, failing to record a target twice over that stretch. The writing was on the wall in Week 18, as Knox was left out of the starting lineup for the first time this season.
It was just a matter of time before Buffalo’s first-round pick from last year’s draft eclipsed Knox on the depth chart, and an injury may have facilitated that transaction. It’s clear the Bills are prioritizing Kincaid in the passing game, hurting Knox’s profile in this wild card showdown. His receiving yards projection is already concerningly low, but we’re not expecting Knox to surpass it on Monday. Bet Knox to fall below 15.5 receiving yards against the Steelers.
DeVonta Smith Lower 68.5 Receiving Yards
We’re making just one play in Monday night’s NFC battle, and one that won’t be without controversy. Arguably, DeVonta Smith had the best season of his career. The former first-round pick had the best catch rate of his career, posting new highs in yards per target and success rate (as calculated by Football Reference). Still, Smith had a notable dip in production over the last few weeks of the season, casting doubt on his ability to surpass 68.5 receiving yards against the Bucs.
An ankle injury may be contributing to Smith’s diminished production, and it will remain a talking point ahead of Monday’s tilt. The Alabama Crimson Tide alum missed Week 18’s finale against the New York Giants, taking the extra time to get healthy for the playoffs. But even before that injury, Smith was trending in the wrong direction.
The Eagles speedster hasn’t delivered a top-end performance since Week 13. In the four games since then, Smith has posted a below-average 68% catch rate while averaging 58.0 receiving yards per game. Worse, Smith has fallen below 50 receiving yards in two of his past three, failing to eclipse five targets in any of those contests.
Tampa’s defense hasn’t been great at defending against the pass, but they have flaunted improvements. The Bucs have held their past three opponents to a combined 538 passing yards, or just 179.3 per game. Upgraded pass defense metrics collide with Smith’s deteriorating pass-catching stats, contributing to an edge in going below 68.5 receiving yards.
