It might not be commercial-free, but buckle up for over 12 hours of football action Sunday. Week 9 kicks off in Germany, as two AFC heavyweights battle it out at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt. The top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs technically host the second-seeded Miami Dolphins in what could go a long way to determining which team gets a first-round bye come playoff time. Of course, the action doesn’t end there, as we have the usual Sunday slate to look forward to.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Week 9 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Brian Robinson Lower 12.5 Rushing Attempts
After starting the season with 18 or more carries in his first two games, Brian Robinson has fallen off the radar for the Washington Commanders. Robinson has been less effective with the ball in his hands, but Antonio Gibson also deserves some credit for what he’s accomplished early this campaign.
Ultimately, when the Commanders are playing from behind as much as they are, no running back will shine in their offense. That’s going to be true once again Sunday, as the Commanders travel to take on the New England Patriots as three-point underdogs.
Robinson’s workload has decreased significantly since the first two weeks of the season. Since then, the former third-round pick has amassed 58 carries in six games, representing less than 10.0 carries per game. Moreover, he’s attempted more than 10 just once across that stretch, illustrating Ron Rivera’s apprehension to going back to Robinson with any frequency.
Again, Washington might not even have the benefit of relying on their run game against the Pats. The betting market has taken a stance on the hosts, and given the fire sale that was the Commanders defense this week, people are right for doing so.
All things considered, Robinson won’t see the volume to surpass his rushing attempts projection.
Jordan Love Higher 13.5 Rushing Yards
The Green Bay Packers are still finding their offensive identity under Jordan Love. The Packers sit in the bottom half of the league in most offensive categories and generate just 287.0 yards per game, putting them eighth-last among all NFL teams. It’s time for Love to put the team on his back, and he’ll get that chance against a beatable Los Angeles Rams defense.
It’s time for Love to evolve and find a way to move the ball downfield. Simply, he’s not getting it done with his arm. The Packers quarterback is completing a disappointing 57.7% of passes, with an awful 11-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, we have seen Love excel in the ground game. The third-year pro has run for 21 or more yards in five of seven games this season, totaling 92 rushing yards over his last three outings.
Opponents have enjoyed success running the ball against the Rams this year. LA sits in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed per game, giving up an average of 115.1. Moreover, quarterbacks have been a big part of that trend. Three of the last five QBs they’ve faced have gone off for at least 47 rushing yards, with Jalen Hurts setting the high mark with 72.
Love is playing for his spot on the roster at this point. He should put his team on his back and run all over the Rams on Sunday, surpassing his modest rushing yards projection.
Deshaun Watson Higher 18.5 Completions
Injuries continue to impact Deshaun Watson’s availability. Still, the Cleveland Browns are expected to have their signal caller back in the lineup for Sunday’s tilt versus the Arizona Cardinals. The Browns have relied more heavily on their passing attack with Watson in the lineup, which should help him go north of 18.5 completions.
It helps that the Cardinals have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Arizona gives up the 14th-most passing yards and third-worst completion percentage, ensuring the Browns can maximize Watson’s usage at home.
Irrespective of opponent, Kevin Stefanski was probably already going to unleash his pivot. Watson has thrown 29 or more passes in all three games he’s finished this season, averaging 34.0 pass attempts per game. Further, Watson’s got the completion percentage (61.5%) to support him going higher than 18.5 completions. But we should expect better than that against a woeful Cardinals defense.
Sunday’s contest against Arizona could be Watson’s best performance yet. Eclipsing 18.5 completions could just be the tip of the iceberg for Watson as he and the Browns enter this one as 12.5-point favorites.
Kyle Pitts Lower 42.5 Receiving Yards
The Atlanta Falcons made a surprising decision to bench starting quarterback Desmond Ridder this week. At face value, it may serve as a message to the young pivot that losing isn’t tolerated. However, it will likely have the unintended consequence of diminishing other players’ contributions in Week 9. Chief among those is Kyle Pitts, who has already fallen down the depth chart this season.
The Falcons offense has been flying high on the wings of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Atlanta calls the sixth-most rushing plays per game, generating the 10th-most rushing yards and eighth-highest rushing play percentage. Consequently, Pitts has yet to recapture the magic of his rookie season from 2021.
The former fourth-overall draft pick is seeing just 6.0 targets per game, seeing five or fewer passes in five of eight outings. Worse, he’s not making the most of those looks, posting a lackluster 58.4% catch rate and a career-worst 11.9 yards per catch.
Pitts’ already low ceiling is negatively impacted by Taylor Heinicke operating the offense. He should fall below 41.5 receiving yards against the Minnesota Vikings.
Jake Ferguson Higher 3.5 Receptions
The Dallas Cowboys face a crucial test against a divisional rival in Week 9. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys travel to the City of Brotherly Love for an NFC East grudge match against the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s all hands on deck for Dallas, and that could mean more responsibility for an unsuspecting pass catcher.
Earlier this year, Jake Ferguson was a fundamental part of the Cowboys’ aerial assault. The second-year tight end was targeted seven times in three of his first four games, falling off that pace more recently. Over his last three contests, Ferguson hasn’t been thrown to more than four times, accumulating just eight targets across the three-game sample.
What he lacks in volume, Ferguson makes up for in reliability. The Wisconsin product hasn’t dropped a pass since Week 3, hauling in the 15 passes thrown his way.
The Eagles have an imposing defensive front, but they’ve struggled to contain tight ends. Last week, Logan Thomas grabbed all five of his targets for 44 yards. That was the third time in five games that a tight end caught at least three passes for 24 or more yards.
Ferguson had chemistry with Prescott earlier this season, and he’s rekindled that connection recently. Ferguson should be a primary weapon, helping him go higher than 3.5 receptions.
