Week 8 is exactly the reprieve we needed from the “Bye Week Blues”. For the first time since Week 4 and the last time until Week 12, every NFL team is taking to the field this week. That means football fans have 14 games to look forward to on Sunday, with several divisional matchups playing a crucial factor in playoff positions. As such, we have even more projections to dissect as we get ready for another entertaining day of football.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Week 8 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Tyler Allgeier Higher 34.5 Rushing Yards
There’s no telling what the Atlanta Falcons might try to pull off on any given week. The first week of the season, Tyler Allgeier shouldered the heaviest workload, carrying the ball 15 times for 75 yards. Then, Bijan Robinson overtook him in the ground game, outpacing Allgeier in carries and snap count for four straight weeks.
Since then, Allgeier has earned a more equitable share of the workload, setting a season-high with 24 touches in last week’s win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It may be a bit of a roll of the dice, but we like Allgeier to carry that momentum into Sunday’s showdown against the Tennessee Titans and go higher than 34.5 rushing yards.
That’s a modest total for a running back who has rushed for 40 or more yards in three straight weeks and five of his first seven. Moreover, Tennessee isn’t the defensive juggernaut they have been in years past. So far this season, opponents are rushing for 102 yards per game against the Titans, with the last three getting up to 134.7.
Irrespective of how the workload is divvied out, Allgeier has a knack for accumulating yards. The second-year pro is averaging 50.0 yards per game on 17.0 carries per game over his previous three outings, eating into Robinson’s share of the backfield. We’re betting that continues against the Titans, with Allgeier going north of 34.5 rushing yards.
Joshua Dobbs Lower 31.5 Rushing Yards
In operating the Arizona Cardinals offense, Joshua Dobbs has established himself as a dual-threat quarterback. The former Tennessee Volunteer has taken off 35 times over the last five games, totaling 194 yards over that stretch. However, a few factors are working against Dobbs and his rushing yards projection when the Cardinals take on the Baltimore Ravens.
First, Baltimore operates one of the stingiest defensive units in the league. The Ravens rank second in total defense and first in points allowed, giving up a paltry 95.7 rushing yards per game. Second, quarterbacks are not moving the ball on the ground against the Ravens. Through their first seven games of the season, opposing signal callers have combined for just 60 rushing yards, with none gaining more than 24 yards in a game.
Lastly, the Cardinals might not have the luxury of running the ball against the Ravens. Baltimore enters the interconference battle as a steep 10-point favorite, suggesting that Arizona may need to turn to its passing game to keep pace with the mighty Ravens.
No one is moving the ball against the AFC North leaders this year, let alone quarterbacks via the ground game. Dobbs’ successful run comes to an end Sunday.
Alvin Kamara Higher 13.5 Rushing Attempts
The New Orleans Saints have been treated to some vintage Alvin Kamara performances recently, and they are milking that for all it’s worth. The former third-round pick returned to the gridiron at the start of the month, re-capturing the glory that made him a Pro Bowler the first five years of his career. He’ll maintain that standard with a Week 8 battle versus the Indianapolis Colts.
Opponents are running all over the lowly Colts these days. Indianapolis sits in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing yards allowed, giving up an average of 118.7 per game. Worse, they’re getting trampled to the tune of 127.0 rushing yards per game at home, with three of their last four opponents going off for at least 150.
The Saints eased Kamara back into the lineup with 11 carries in his first game of the season, but it didn’t take long for them to ramp up production. The 28-year-old has totaled 22 19, and 17 carries since then, adding 22 catches on 25 targets in the passing game.
It’s clear that New Orleans is prioritizing Kamara in its gameplanning. Kamara is averaging 20.0 touches per game over the past three games, with most of those coming via the ground game. The Saints will feed Kamara early and often as they look to runaway with Sunday’s interconference battle against the Colts. Kamara should have no problem exceeding 13.5 carries.
Matthew Stafford Higher 22.5 Completions
After starting the season with 24 or more completions in three of his first four games, Matthew Stafford has cooled off recently. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback has totaled just 29 completions over his previous two games, with a season-worst 48.3% completion rate last time out. That sets Stafford up for a bounceback effort in Sunday’s tilt versus the Dallas Cowboys.
Additionally, in reconciling his current form with career norms, Stafford is a natural progression candidate over the coming weeks. Stafford is in his third season with the Rams, posting a completion percentage of 67.5% through his first two campaigns. Through seven games this year, his completion rate has plummeted to 59.8%, implying greener pastures await the Super Bowl-winning pivot.
Stafford could have a chance to flex his muscles against a Cowboys’ secondary that is trending in the wrong direction. Dallas has allowed an average of 223.3 passing yards and 18.7 completions over its past three after holding opponents to 130.7 and 15.3, respectively, through its first three.
With a full complement of talented pass-catchers at his disposal, Stafford is primed for a strong showing in Week 8. Combined with the Cowboys less-effective pass defense, we should see the Rams quarterback go north of 22.5 completions at AT&T Stadium.
Tutu Atwell Higher 2.0 Receptions
We’re taking a correlated approach with our final projections selection, pairing Tutu Atwell’s receptions total with the aforementioned Stafford play. Atwell has flashed high-end talent at times this year, and he should have more freedom in the secondary as Dallas hones in on Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Not even halfway through the season, Atwell has already set career benchmarks across the board. The former second-round pick has more receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns than he had through his first two seasons combined. Further, his 16.8% target share is the second-best on the team, and Atwell has two or more receptions in all but two of his seven games this season.
Granted, Atwell’s workshare has taken a hit with Kupp back in the lineup, but we still like him to take on a more prominent role against the Cowboys. Defenses will be forced to double-team Kupp and Nacua, creating opportunity for other receivers in the Rams offense.
Ten different pass-catchers have caught two or more passes against the Cowboys over their last two games. For Stafford to surpass his completions projection, he’s going to need to spread the ball around to different receivers. Atwell has shown that he can tolerate an increased workload, and he should haul in at least two passes Sunday.
