We are on to Week 6, in what’s sure to be another captivating docket of NFL action. The International series continues, this time featuring the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans in London. Both teams are looking for a win to stay competitive within their respective divisions, but it’s the Ravens who are attracting the most money leading up to kickoff. From there, we only have a couple of divisional matchups, with interconference games dominating most of the schedule. Still, there’s plenty of value to extract from this week’s slate.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Week 6 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Mike Gesicki Lower 22.5 Receiving Yards
The New England Patriots are in the minority this week, taking on an AFC foe in the Las Vegas Raiders. Bill Belichick’s reign as a superpower has seemingly come to an end, as he’s been unable to lead his team to that elusive 300th win as a head coach. His two tight-end formations haven’t been as common this season, hurting Mike Gesicki’s chances of going north of his receiving yards projection.
In his first season with the team, Gesicki’s usage has taken a hit. The former second-round pick has played 60% or fewer snaps in three of his five outings with Mac Jones clearly prioritizing Hunter Henry in the passing game. Henry ranks second on the team in targets, with 176 yards on 17 receptions. Comparatively, Gesicki sits sixth in targets, hauling in 12 catches for 116 yards.
Usage is a major concern for Gesicki, but he’s still not getting downfield when called upon. The 28-year-old hasn’t exceeded 18 yards in any of his past three games, totaling just four receptions on eight targets. That downward spiral will continue against a Raiders defense that sits in the top half of the league in pass defense.
Gesicki is not a priority in the passing game, as Henry has established himself as the primary tight end. If Belichick nabs his 300th win on Sunday, it won’t be thanks to Gesicki.
Jerome Ford Lower 36.5 Rushing Yards
On Sunday, the Cleveland Browns face the daunting task of trying to slow down the San Francisco 49ers. Cleveland could be forced to lean into its aerial assault to keep pace with the Niners, taking its stable of running backs out of the contest. Either way, it’s unlikely Jerome Ford has a robust enough workload to exceed his rushing yards projection.
There was no telling who would take over the Browns backfield after Nick Chubb went down with the season-ending knee injury. Ford was the de facto running back againt the Pittsburgh Steelers, but as we saw in Week 4, the Browns have several options to turn to.
Six different players rushed the ball against the Ravens in Week 4, albeit only three of whom were running backs. Pierre Strong was the most impressive of the bunch, toting the ball five times for 49 yards. Ford finished a distant second, needing nine carries to get to 29 yards. Further, Kareem Hunt got his sea legs underneath him, rushing the ball five times for 12 yards.
At best, the Browns have a trio of running backs they will deploy to keep the Niners guessing. At worst, the rushing attack will be obsolete as Cleveland tries to keep up via the passing game. In either circumstance, it’s tough to envision Ford going above 36.5 rushing yards.
Jonathan Taylor Higher 43.5 Rushing Yards
The offseason of change is behind him, and Jonathan Taylor can finally focus on football. The Indianapolis Colts eased their former All-Pro running back into action, giving him six carries while playing him on just 14.9% of snaps. It’s time for the training wheels to come off as the Colts visit the Jacksonville Jaguars in a pivotal AFC South showdown.
With the addition of Anthony Richardson under center, the Colts transformed into a rushing team this offseason. Indianapolis ranks ninth in the NFL in rushing-play percentage, staying on the ground 45.4% of the time. That’s a substantive jump from last season’s benchmark of 39.8%, which put the Colts 10th-last.
Up to this point, Zack Moss has been the primary running back out of the Colts backfield; however, we’ll see a steady transition to Taylor over the coming weeks. Across the three preceding seasons, Taylor averaged 17.6 carries per game while starting all 43 of 50 games.
Indianapolis rewarded its star pupil with a top-end contract, and it’s time for Taylor to validate the pact. Irrespective of whether he’s in the starting lineup or not, Taylor should get enough carries to go above 43.5 rushing yards.
Kyle Pitts Higher 32.5 Receiving Yards
Three years into his NFL career, and Kyle Pitts has yet to surpass the heights he reached in his rookie campaign. Back in 2021, the Atlanta Falcons tight end grabbed 68 passes for 1,026 yards. Since then, Pitts has mustered just 46 catches for 564 yards. We’ve seen what he’s capable of, and it’s time for Pitts to recapture his former glory.
It appears the Falcons are trying to incorporate Pitts more into their game-planning. The former No. 4 pick has led the team in targets in two of the past three weeks, getting thrown to 24 times over that stretch. More importantly, Pitts has responded well to the increased workload, posting an improved 58.3% catch rate.
Pitts will have a chance to replicate those efforts against the lowly Washington Commanders. Last week, the Commanders allowed Cole Kmet to haul in all five of his targets with Justin Fields totaling 282 passing yards. Sadly, that was the third time in four weeks in which opponents threw for at least that many yards.
All signs point to another elite performance from Pitts. The third-year pro has been a focal point on offense, and the Commanders straight up refuse to defend against the pass. Pitts should have no problem exceeding his receiving yards projection.
Dalvin Cook Higher 11.5 Rushing Yards
Five weeks into the season, and the New York Jets are still clinging to their playoff aspirations. Things haven’t gone to plan, but as we’ve seen over the last few weeks, their best chance of winning comes when they take the ball out of Zach Wilson’s hands. Thankfully, they have two premier running backs to hand the ball off to. Dalvin Cook has been used sparingly, but he’s been effective when called upon.
Cook has been used as a change-of-pace back for the Jets offense, and it’s yielded positive results. So far this season, the four-time Pro Bowler has tallied 36 touches, garnering at least 16 rushing yards in all but one of those contests. It’s also had a more profound impact on team metrics, as the Jets rank 11th in the NFL in rush yards per game.
Granted, the Philadelphia Eagles have an imposing defense and sterling metrics, but there are a couple of factors worth considering. First, opponents have to throw the ball to try and keep up with the Eagles’ elite offense. Second, Philadelphia has yet to face an elite rushing team, as every one of their opponents ranks among the worst 11 rushing teams.
The Eagles are well-traveled, playing in their third road game in four weeks. Cook will continue to be a regular part of the Jets’ attack, giving him enough touches to go north of 11.5 rushing yards.
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