You know it’s gonna be a good Sunday when football is on the minute you roll out of bed. For the second consecutive week, the Jacksonville Jaguars are playing in London, hosting the Buffalo Bills in a crucial AFC battle with serious playoff implication. Of course, the fun doesn’t end there, as there are 11 other games to get excited about during the day. And no, your math didn’t fail you; bye weeks have already started, with four teams resting up.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Week 2 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Zach Wilson Lower 18.5 Completions
Optimism among the New York Jets camp lasted little more than a couple of snaps this year. Aaron Rodgers ruptured his Achilles tendon, and all of a sudden Zach Wilson was thrust back into the starter’s role. As we’ve seen, that continues to hold the Jets back from reaching their full potential.
Wilson’s got a laundry list of underwhelming statistics. His completion percentage is still below 60.0%, he’s got a 4-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and the Jets are 0-3 in his starts. Most sportsbooks are expecting Wilson to go north of 18.5 completions, but backing the over could be ill-advised.
Through four appearances, Wilson has completed more than 18 passes just once. Worse, he’s still only completing 58.5% of his throws, and his yards per pass attempt has fallen to a career-low 5.8.
In his lone road start this season, Wilson went 12-for-27 with his throws for a 44.4% completion rating. The Denver Broncos haven’t been exceptional at limiting the passing attack, but thankfully, they won’t face a sincere challenge from Wilson. Expect the Jets quarterback to fall below his completions total on Sunday.
Jared Goff Higher 30.5 Pass Attempts
Dan Campbell has a magical potion for extracting maximum value from his lineup. Although some of his magic formula will remain a secret, there’s a more obvious component that opponents should catch onto. The Detroit Lions unleash the unrelenting fury of their passing attack, particularly in the comforts of home.
On average, the Lions are dialing up 32.8 passing plays per game, posting a top-10 completion percentage of 69.5%. Moreover, those metrics look even more glamorous at Ford Field. The Lions are up marginally to 34.0 pass attempts per game at home, but their completion percentage jumps four points from their season average, up to 73.5%.
Calling those metrics team stats is doing a disservice to Jared Goff. The three-time Pro Bowler is the Lions’ field general and is at least partly responsible for the team’s early-season success. We can’t discount the pass catchers, rushing attack, or offensive line, but credit to Goff for delivering when called upon.
The Carolina Panthers will offer little resistance, and the Lions should continue to rely on their aerial assault within their friendly confines. Goff should have no problem going north of 30.5 pass attempts in this one.
Tyler Allgeier Higher 7.5 Rushing Attempts
A couple of solid draft picks in consecutive drafts have left the Atlanta Falcons with one of the best backfields in the NFL. First Tyler Allgeier and now Bijan Robinson have turned the NFC South squad into divisional contenders. Although the field has tilted in Robinson’s favor slightly over the past couple of weeks, we’re expecting a more even workshare in Week 5.
Let’s start with logistics. Atlanta is in the unenviable position of returning home following an overseas game. Surely, the trans-Atlantic travel will leave the team at least a little jet-lagged, necessitating a more balanced workshare.
More importantly, Allgeier has been outstanding at home this season. In two home starts, Allgeier is averaging 15.5 carries per game, 4.0 yards per carry, and 61.5 yards per game. Moreover, he’s seeing a lot more field time at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with a 48.9% snap count, up from 30.4% on the road.
Opponents are having success running the ball against the Houston Texans. Houston ranks in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards allowed per attempt and bottom half in opponent rushing attempts per game. The Falcons rushing attack is on the menu, and Houston should expect a healthy serving of Allgeier.
Travis Kelce Lower 77.5 Receiving Yards
It’s not every day we recommend taking the lower on a Travis Kelce projection, but Sunday’s battle against the Minnesota Vikings could be the exception to the rule. Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs have to take on a desperate Vikings squad, getting past their non-conference opponent in a hostile environment.
Irrespective of venue, the Vikings defense has been effective at corralling tight ends. Hayden Hurst was stymied last week, grabbing just one of three targets for seven yards. The week prior, Gerald Everett was held to 30 yards, albeit on six catches. Finally Dallas Goedert and Cade Otton were held to 22 and 19 yards, respectively.
Further, Kelce hasn’t looked as sharp as he typically does. The four-time All-Pro has been held to a career-worst 65.4% catch rate and 69 or fewer receiving yards in all three contests.
We’re starting to see a decline in some of Kelce’s projections, but the decrease hasn’t caught up with actual metrics. That downward trend should continue yet again this week, and we’re betting Kelce stays beneath his 77.5 receiving yards projection.
Zay Flowers Higher 4.0 Receptions
Zay Flowers tenure as a Baltimore Raven is off to a good start. The rookie wide receiver has started all four games for the Ravens, snagging 24 receptions and 244 yards with a sterling 82.8% catch rate. We’re betting those metrics continue in Week 5’s showdown versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Some solid underlying metrics support that Flowers has yet to reach his fantasy ceiling. After playing 80.7% of the snaps through the first two weeks, Flowers’ usage has surged to 95.4% the last two. Over that stretch, Flowers has sat out just six plays, building chemistry with Lamar Jackson.
Flowers has had at least four receptions in all but one of his first four starts. Taking on an underwhelming Steelers secondary only amplifies that upside. Pittsburgh was torched by Nico Collins last week and got burned by Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers the week before. Flowers should extend that trend, exceeding his modest receptions projection in this AFC North grudge match.
