The penultimate week of the regular season is upon us. We still have no clarity on which teams will make the playoffs or what the seeding will look like once we get there. Only three teams have clinched a playoff berth in the AFC, with nine more vying for a spot in the postseason. Likewise, there are still 11 teams competing for a spot on the NFC side of the bracket. Consequently, we’re anticipating the most entertaining week yet Sunday, as squads battle it out for a coveted playoff spot.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Week 17 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Josh Allen Lower 7.5 Rushing Attempts
The Buffalo Bills are one of the teams fighting for their playoff lives in Week 17. As it stands, Buffalo occupies the sixth seed in the AFC, but it has yet to secure its pass into the postseason. Surely, a Sunday matchup with the New England Patriots moves them one step closer to their fifth-straight playoff berth.
As usual, Josh Allen has been an integral part of the team’s success. The Wyoming product has accumulated the sixth-most passing yards this season, albeit with substantially less involvement in the ground game. Allen is averaging a career-worst 5.7 rushing attempts per game and is projected to fall below 100 rushing attempts for the first time since his rookie season.
There likely won’t be any urgency for Allen to get out and run against an imposing Pats defense. The Bills enter the contest as prohibitive 14-point home favorites, implying that they should be out in front by a comfortable margin early in this contest. The last thing Buffalo can afford is to lose Allen before the end of the season, meaning the emphasis will likely be on protecting its quarterback.
Allen has been more stationary than usual this season. The two-time Pro Bowler has fallen below seven rushing attempts in 11 of his 15 outings, exceeding that threshold in just one home game this year. New England has an unforgiving defense, and the Bills will be encouraging Allen to stay in the pocket or turn things over to their stable of running backs in the ground game. We’re adding Allen to go lower than 7.5 rushing attempts to our Sunday portfolio.
Bryce Young Higher 13.5 Rushing Yards
There’s less at stake for the Carolina Panthers, and there has been for quite some time. The Panthers were never really in this season, getting mathematically eliminated from the playoffs before any other team. But that was always part of the plan for this young, up-and-coming squad, as they try to develop Bryce Young into the franchise quarterback they hope he can be.
Part of Young’s allure is his presence in the ground game. The first overall selection took some time to get his sea legs underneath him, but we’ve seen Young embrace the rushing attack as the season progresses. That upward trajectory should continue against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
Over the past three weeks, the Panthers quarterback has taken off 11 times, totaling 66 rushing yards. Young has surpassed 17 rushing yards in two of those three outings, including a 40-yard effort in Week 14 against the New Orleans Saints.
Jacksonville’s rush defense is falling apart at the seams these days. The Jags are giving up an average of 134.3 rushing yards per game since Week 14, with quarterbacks accounting for 21 carries and 101 rushing yards over that stretch. Take note that 97 of those yards came courtesy of Lamar Jackson, but Joe Flacco and Baker Mayfield aren’t renowned for their rushing abilities, regardless of matchup. The fact that they tried four and five carries, respectively, indicates the lack of respect the Jaguars defense is getting.
Young likely falls somewhere between Jackson and the other two QBs, but 13.5 rushing yards is too low of a total. We’re backing him to exceed his rushing projection against the Jags.
Jake Browning Higher 34.5 Passing Attempts
We’re making one final play on a quarterback, this time deferring to a throwing projection as opposed to a rushing play. Some of the shine has worn off Jake Browning over the past few weeks, but that hasn’t stopped the Cincinnati Bengals from turning to their quarterback more frequently. Browning throws more passes than most other signal callers, a trend that should continue versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
Playing from behind over the past couple of weeks has forced the Bengals to throw. Cincy needed a fourth-quarter comeback in Week 15 against the Minnesota Vikings before getting humbled last week by the Pittsburgh Steelers. In total, Browning had 42 passes in each of the last two outings, accounting for 64.6% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps.
We’re anticipating a similar game script playing out Sunday, forcing the Bengals to adopt a pass-heavy scheme. Cincinnati enters this crucial AFC showdown as 6.5-point underdogs, implying that they could find themselves in a bit of a hole early. If that’s the case, Browning will have no choice but to shoot from the hip, sailing over 34.5 passing attempts.
Javonte Williams Lower 2.5 Receptions
The Denver Broncos are tip-toeing around a precarious quarterback situation. Earlier this week, Sean Payton confirmed that Russell Wilson would be benched, creating uncertainty surrounding what comes next between Wilson and the Broncos. What we do know is that Javonte Williams isn’t used as a pass-catching back, and his receiving ceiling takes a hit with a new QB under center.
Williams is primarily deployed as a traditional running back for the Broncos. His 193 carries account for nearly 50.0% of Denver’s rushing attempts this season, putting him 130 above the next closest running back. Conversely, Williams has been an afterthought in the passing game, sitting behind Samaje Perine in target share.
Additionally, Williams has some lackluster receiving metrics. The third-year pro’s 80.4% catch rate puts him behind Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin, while his 3.7 yards per target ranks 13th among all Broncos’ pass catchers.
The Los Angeles Chargers haven’t been great, but we have seen renewed effort in their defense. That’s helped them contain opposing running backs, with the last two teams combining for just 29 yards on five catches. With Perine and McLaughlin in the mix, don’t expect Williams to play a crucial role in the aerial assault. We’re betting he stays beneath 2.5 receptions.
Emari Demercado Higher 1.5 Receptions
We are punctuating our card with one more receptions projection, highlighting Emari Demercado to go north of 1.5 catches against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Arizona Cardinals running back is coming off a season-best effort, but he has other underlying metrics supporting ongoing involvement in the game planning.
Last week against the Chicago Bears, Demercado went off for 40 yards on seven catches and eight targets, all of which were career-bests. However, his snap count had the rookie trending toward increased involvement.
Demarcado had played at least 20.0% of the offensive snaps in three of his past four games. The only time he failed to meet that benchmark was Week 13, leaving early against the Pittsburgh Steelers with what was later determined to be a neck injury. Since then, Demercado has played 30.1% of the snaps, recording eight catches on 11 targets.
Opposing running backs have totaled 25 catches over the Philadelphia Eagles’ last five games. Although James Conner will be the bell cow in the Cardinals backfield, Demercado has earned a more robust share of the work. We should see him involved enough in the passing game to surpass 1.5 receptions.
