We are gearing up for another exhilarating weekend of football action, starting with a modest two-game slate on Saturday. First, NFL enthusiasts are treated to a crucial AFC North showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals, followed by an inter-divisional battle between the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills.
Despite being in similar positions, the Steelers and Bengals are headed in opposite directions. Cincinnati has overcome the loss of Joe Burrow to move into a playoff spot. Conversely, Pittsburgh has been languishing since losing Kenny Pickett, dropping three straight decisions.
That’s a position the Chargers can lament, as they’ve failed to generate any meaningful offense since losing Justin Herbert to a season-ending injury. Buffalo is poised to perpetuate those woes, entering Saturday’s contest as prohibitive -12.5 chalk.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Week 16 Saturday NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Jake Browning Lower 7.5 Rushing Yards
When historians reflect on the 2023 NFL season, Jake Browning will be more than just a footnote. The fifth-year pro out of Washington has filled in admirably for Joe Burrow, almost single-handedly keeping the Bengals’ playoff hopes alive. Browning will look to maintain that form in Week 16, insulating himself against the Steelers’ defense by getting the ball out quickly and avoiding taking off in the running game.
After giving him a couple of weeks to get his sea legs underneath him, the Bengals have unleashed Browning in the passing attack more recently. The former undrafted free agent has attempted 103 passing attempts over his last three outings, surpassing 37 in two of those three contests.
Browning has been cemented behind the line of scrimmage, rushing for 29 yards across the three-game sample. Moreover, 21 of those came on one carry against the Jacksonville Jaguars, with Browning failing to eclipse seven rushing yards in either of his last two.
Cincinnati cannot afford to expose Browning to the Steelers’ defensive front. The last time he faced Pittsburgh, Browning was sacked four times for a loss of 30 yards. With Ja’Marr Chase not stretching the field, quick slants, hitch passes, and check-downs will be a regular occurrence for the Bengals. Anything to insulate Browning and keep him from getting buried by T.J. Watt and company.
Look for him to stay beneath 7.5 rushing yards on Saturday.
Najee Harris Lower 1.5 Receptions
Najee Harris has never really been deployed as a pass-catching back out of Pittsburgh’s backfield, and we’re starting to see some of his usual responsibilities stripped away. Harris has failed to deliver as a feature back, creating an in-road for Jaylen Warren to take more of the snaps out of the Steelers backfield. That eroding workload should result in Harris falling below 1.5 receptions versus the Bengals.
Harris’ standing with the team is on unsteady ground. Over his last two games, the former first-round pick has totaled 62 yards on 24 carries, for 2.6 yards per carry. Consequently, Harris was relegated to just 20 snaps in Week 15, representing 33.9% of the offensive plays Pittsburgh ran. In that same game, Warren played a season-best 69.0% of snaps.
More concretely, Harris isn’t usually part of the passing packages. He’s caught one or fewer passes in three of his past five games, a span in which he was targeted just eight times. Moreover, Harris has the worst catch rate of his career, posting a sub-optimal 72.7% rating this season.
A diminished role with the team does nothing to help Harris exceed his receptions against the Bengals. Additionally, those responsibilities are typically delegated to Warren, as pass-catching back doesn’t suit Harris’ strengths.
Easton Stick Lower 32.5 Pass Attempts
On behalf of all Canadians, thank you to Easton Stick’s parents for naming their child after one of our most beloved objects. But we’re not here to talk about an inanimate object used to propel pucks into opposing teams’ nets; instead, we’re highlighting the likelihood of Stick falling below his pass attempts projection against the Buffalo Bills.
The Chargers quarterback got his first start of the season in Week 15, dropping a lopsided 63-21 decision to the Las Vegas Raiders. In that contest, Stick threw 32 passes, equalling 62.8% of total offensive plays. We’re anticipating more emphasis on the running game as the Chargers avoid stranding their quarterback against one of the fiercest pass rushes in the game.
Buffalo’s defensive front has been one of the best at getting to opposing quarterbacks this season. The Bills have the fifth-most sacks in the NFL, allowing the ninth-fewest passing yards. Further, we’ve seen a tighter secondary over the Bills’ recent sample, limiting the last three teams they’ve faced to a combined 59.3% completion percentage.
LA’s best hope of staying competitive is taking the ball out of Stick’s hands. The Chargers can rely on Austin Ekeler and Josh Kelley to pick up yards rather than hanging their backup pivot out to dry against one of the top pass defenses in the league.
At the end of this contest, we’re expecting Stick to fall below 32.5 pass attempts.
Joshua Palmer Lower 3.5 Receptions
The tragedy with wide receivers is that their production depends on the quarterback heaving them the ball. That’s bad news for Joshua Palmer, who will be absorbing passes from a backup signal-caller amid a presumed decrease in aerial activity. Consequently, we’re taking a correlated approach with our final pick, highlighting Palmer to go lower than 3.5 receptions.
Palmer returned from a six-game absence in Week 15, hauling in all four of his targets for a robust 113 receiving yards. These monumental performances have been intermittent through Palmer’s few seasons in the league, implying that he’s a regression candidate against the Bills.
Even without their full arsenal of pass-catching options, Palmer was a secondary option for Stick. The Canadian wideout finished last week’s contest with the third-most targets, falling behind Ekeler and Gerald Everett. Additionally, there is no shortage of players to incorporate on offense, with nine different players soaking at least two targets against the Raiders.
The x-factor that tilts us away from Palmer exceeding his reception projection is his underwhelming catch rate. The third-year pro has hauled in just 62.8% of passes thrown his way, more than a standard deviation away from the 100% mark he posted last week. Those concerns are amplified against a Bills defense that is building momentum over their recent schedule.
Palmer falls below 3.5 receptions when the dust settles on this one.
